Sunday, November 06, 2005

morgan stanley: india vs. china

nov 6th

good to see stephen roach, one of the top strategy honchos at morgan stanley, getting steadily more positive on india. i think he is a fairly influential person.

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http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20051031-mon.html#anchor0

MORGAN STANLEY, GLOBAL ECONOMIC FORUM

OCTOBER 31, 2005

Global: Here Comes the Indian Consumer

Stephen Roach (from Melbourne)

India is on the cusp of something big. After my third trip there in 18 months, I am as enthusiastic about India as I was about China in the late 1990s. While comparisons with China are inevitable, the case for India is very different. 

2 comments:

san said...

Company claims revolutionary new wind turbine design generates 80% more power:

http://www.jacksonholestartrib.com/articles/2005/11/05/news/wyoming/d0bb2e422044bb30872570b00009def1.txt

http://www.wired.com/news/technology/0,1282,69492,00.html?tw=wn_tophead_10

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/national/1501AP_Vertical_Wind.html

Terra Moya Aqua Inc, a manufacturer of small wind turbines, says their new wind turbine spins more slowly while generating 80% more power from the same wind.

Revolution or scam? Well, people are signing up to order it, so we'll know soon enough if they're satisfied customers, or if they've been ripped off. Also, the company is planning to go public, so we'll find out if its stock price continues to rise, or if it plunges because their product is garbage.

I've read that Coimbatore is the wind capital of India, and have recently expanded by installing some large GE-built multi-megawatt turbines.

Anyway, here's a nice article on wind power development in India:

http://www.deccanherald.com/deccanherald/oct42005/snt1457532005103.asp

This could do a lot for rural electrificaion through small-scale local micro-generation. Power transmission lines are lossy and suffer from piracy anyway.

san said...

Here's another article on China's rise and the struggle to cope with it:

http://www.iht.com/articles/2005/11/06/news/rchinover.php

I would relate this to the Morgan Stanley article by referring back to Roach's remark on how Indian consumerism can take some of the load off the US economy as being the mainstay for consumption of international exports.

Because policymakers in countries like Japan feel most bound to the US due to the fact that the US is their primary export market. They know which side their bread is buttered on. But if India could become a good export market for Japan, then they would have more latitude to break away from the confines of their underperforming relationship with the US, and realign more closely with India.