Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Fwd: FW: Informed piece on Census 2011


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Sandeep
Date: Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 3:04 PM
Subject: Fwd: FW: Informed piece on Census 2011
To:


 

India's best known demographer, Dr. JK Bajaj digs behind the 24.4% growth rate with respect to the Census of 2011. A must-read.

 

 

Census 2011: The Religious Imbalance Worsens

Dr. J.K. Bajaj

 

The long-awaited religion data for the Census of 2011 has not been published yet. But it seems that some journalists have been allowed to have a quick look at the figures. Consequently, many stories have appeared in the press; already several articles have been written to reassure the Hindus that the share of Muslims in the population of India has not really changed by too much and there is no serious demographic imbalance developing between different communities in India. But the reported figures seem anything but reassuring.

Muslims grow by 24.4 per cent against national average of 17.7 per cent

According to the reports, the Muslim population has grown by 24.4 per cent between 2001 and 2011. Average growth of the total population during the decade has been only 17.7 per cent; the growth of Hindus is much lower at only 14.5 per cent. The reports and various articles try to convey that the Muslim growth may be higher compared to the average, yet their rate of growth has declined substantially in comparison to the previous decade, when the Muslim population had grown by 29.50 per cent. But what is critical in maintaining the demographic balance between different communities is not the absolute rate of growth but the gap between their respective growth ratesThe Muslim rate of growth in 2011 is nearly 38 per cent above the national average; in 2001, the gap between the growth of Muslims and the national average was somewhat lower at 36.8 per cent. The rate of growth of Hindus, on the other hand, has declined about 20 per cent below the national average. This is a matter of great concern. We shall discuss the large decline in the rate of growth of Hindus in greater detail towards the end of this article.

Muslims gain 0.8 percentage points in their share

Another figure highlighted in the press reports is the rise of 0.8 percentage points in the share of Muslims in the population; they form 14.2 per cent of the population in 2011 compared to 13.4 per cent in 2001. The reports suggest that this increase of a mere 0.8 percentage points is small and not a matter of any concern. But this level of increase in the share of a significantly large minority community can hardly be considered small. It implies an increase of 8 percentage points in a century; that kind of change is large enough to drastically alter the social, political and geographical balance between communities.

It is also suggested that the imbalance in the growth rate of Muslims and others is a temporary phenomenon that is unlikely to continue for long. But there is nothing in the data to suggest any correction of the imbalance. In fact, if the figure of 0.8 percentage point rise in the share of Muslims during the last decade is indeed correct, then it would be the third time in a row that they would have registered such a gain. The share of Muslims had risen by almost exactly the same 0.8 percentage points between 1981-1991 and 1991-2001; their share was 11.8 per cent in 1981, 12.6 per cent in 1991 and 13.4 per cent in 2001; it is 14.2 per cent now in 2011.

In the earlier decades, the rise in the share of Muslims used to be much smaller, but even in that period a clear rising trend was visible from decade to decade. The share was 10.5 per cent in 1951, 10.7 per cent in 1961, 11.2 per cent in 1971 and 11.8 per cent in 1981.

It is clear from the above that the rise of 0.8 percentage points in the share of Muslims in the population of India is a continuation of an established long-term trend that has continued at least since Independence. In the sixty years between 1951 and 2011, the share of Muslims has increased from 10.5 to 14.2 per cent; two-thirds of this increase has happened in the last three decades alone.

Incidentally, in the period prior to Partition and Independence, the share of Muslims in the part of undivided India that forms the Indian Union now had not increased significantly, and it was actually declining in the part that now forms Pakistan; the share was rising significantly only in the part that now forms Bangladesh. But after Partition, the Muslim share has been rising both in the Indian Union and Bangladesh, very rapidly in the latter. Pakistan, in any case, had become almost entirely Muslim after Partition.

Longer term trend of increase in Muslim share in undivided India

However in undivided India as a whole, the share of Muslims has risen continuously and consistently throughout the period for which the Census data is available. Their share was 20 per cent at the time of the first Census in 1881; it had risen to 24.3 per cent in 1941 before Partition and further to 30.4 per cent in 2001. On the basis of the available figures for 2011, we estimate the share of Muslims in the population of undivided India in 2011 at around 31.8 per cent. Thus the trend of increase in Muslim share in the population seems even stronger for undivided India.

What is critical in maintaining the demographic balance between different communities is not the absolute rate of growth but the gap between their respective growth rates.

Christians form another 2 per cent of the population of undivided India according to official sources. According to the Christian sources, the share of Christians in the population of undivided India is nearer 4 per cent. Christians and Muslims together thus already account for 36 per cent of the population of undivided India. Their combined share in 1881 was only around 21 per cent. The corresponding decline of more than 15 per cent in the share of the religions of Indian origin in the course of 130 years is indeed unusual.

Larger Muslim gains in specific parts of India

Another important aspect of the religion figures of the Census of 2011 that have appeared in the press is the very high growth of Muslims in some of the States of India. According to these reports, the share of Muslims has increased sharply in many parts of India, including in the states of Assam, West Bengal, Kerala, Goa, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Delhi and Haryana.

Muslims now form 34.2 per cent of the population of Assam, which is 3.2 percentage points higher than their share of 30.9 per cent in 2001. This comes on top of gains of about 2 percentage points registered in each of the decades of 1971-81 and 1981-91 and of 2.5 percentage points in 1991-2001. In 1971, the share of Muslims in the population of Assam was only 24.6 per cent; nearly 10 percentage points below the share counted in 2011.

The real story of what is happening to the religious demography of Assam shall be known only when we get the disaggregated data for the districts and taluks. Earlier data indicated that several districts of Assam had become predominantly Muslim and many taluks were on the way to becoming exclusively Muslim. In such taluks, the absolute population of Hindus counted in 2001 was below the count of 1991. Given the surprisingly large rise in the share of Muslims in the State as a whole between 2001 and 2011, Hindus from many other taluks may have been compelled to flee from their homes.

Similarly there are also several districts and taluks in other parts of the country, especiallyin West Bengal, Kerala and Haryana, where Hindus have been reduced to an unviable minority. The impact of the rapid rise in the Muslim share in these States on the Hindus of those vulnerable districts and taluks within them can be assessed only when the detailed disaggregated data are formally released.

Given these trends, the need for the formal release of the complete Census data on religion has become even more urgent.

The substantial rise in the share of Muslims in the population of Kerala is interesting for another reason. In Kerala literacy rates counted in Census 2011 are above 90 per cent for both men and women and Muslim literacy rates there have not been much lower than the average. The much higher rate of growth of Muslims in this State seems to indicate that the gap in the rate of growth of Muslims and the others is not related to literacy alone. In fact, according to the figures of 2001, the literacy rate amongst Muslim women was higher than the average in as many 10 major States of India. In some of these States, the difference in female literacy in favour of Muslims was as high as 10 percentage points. Yet in all these States, the growth rate of Muslims was also higher than the average.

Data on Christians has not been reported yet

While some glimpse has been given of the rise in the share of Muslims in the population of India as a whole and of several States, the reports have almost nothing to say about the share of ChristiansFrom past trends, Christians are likely to record major gains in several parts of the country, including in the Northeast, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Within the Northeast, the data for Arunachal Pradesh and certain districts of Meghalaya and Assam, where rapid Christianisation had been happening in the earlier couple of decades, would be of particular interest. Census of 2001 also indicated increase in the Christian numbers in several newer areas. Detailed disaggregated data of the Census of 2011 alone shall give a clear picture of the further progress of Christianity in those parts.

Decline in the share of Hindus

A surprising aspect of the data that has been reported is the sharp decline in the share of Hindus in the total population of India. According to these reports, the proportion of Hindus has declined by 2.1 percentage points, from 80.45 per cent in 2001 to 78.35 per cent in 2011. Since the share of Muslims has increased by only 0.8 percentage points, what accounts for the larger decline in the share of Hindus? We do not have the detailed figures yet. But the large decline in the Hindu share is most likely to be associated with a spurt in the number of persons counted under "Other Religions and Persuasions".

In every Census, concerted efforts have been made by certain groups to persuade different communities, particularly among the Scheduled Tribes of India, to get counted outside the Hindu fold. As a consequence of such efforts, 6.6 million Indians were counted under the category of Other Religions and Persuasions (ORPs) in 2001; the number in 1991 was less than 3.3 million. The decline of 2.1 percentage points in the share of Hindus in the count of 2011 suggests that the number of ORPs in this Census may have spurted threefold.

When the Census of 2011 was being conducted, intense campaigns were organised in several parts of India to dissuade people from referring to themselves as Hindus. There was even a campaign to make the Census authorities assign a new religious category in the questionnaire for this purpose. These campaigns seem to have achieved conspicuous success. Detailed disaggregated data on religion shall give us further insight into how this process has actually unfolded in the Census of 2011.

Critical Concerns

The reported figures of the religion data of Census 2011 thus raise several critical concerns. The figures show that:

(a) the gap between the rate of growth of Muslims and the national average has remained high and unchanged

(b) there has been a significant rise in the share of Muslims in the population of the country in conformity with a continuing and worrisome long-term trend

(c) in several States, the growth of share of Muslims in the population has been much higher than the national average, indicative of the development of several predominantly Muslim pockets; and

(d) there has been a sharp decline in the share of Hindus in the total population. We yet do not have any figures for the growth of Christians, which could raise further concerns.

Given these trends, the need for the formal release of the complete Census data on religion has become even more urgent. We shall be able to fully appreciate the extent of change in the religious profile of different parts of India only when the detailed religious figures disaggregated up to at least the taluk level are made available. To understand the phenomenon of rising numbers of ORPs and perhaps also of Christians, it would be also important to have the detailed religion data for the Scheduled Tribes of India. Given the critical importance of these figures for understanding the changing social, political and geographical balance within India, the Census should consider making this data part of the Primary Census Abstracts (PCA), so that the religion figures become available up to the town and village level and can be correlated with various other socio-economic aspects of the population.

 

 

  




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sent from samsung galaxy note, so please excuse brevity

the result of the obama visit: india signals that it's now the swing state. my rediff piece

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

Quick notes: Kobane cleansed, GDP delusion...

  • Kobane is free, well almost: IS lost nearly 1,200 fighters in the battle, despite outgunning YPG forces with sophisticated weaponry. "They are adaptive and resilient and no-one is declaring mission accomplished yet".


  • Learn, India: China policy shifts towards quality-of-life rather than GDP. Excessive focus on GDP has contributed to environmental degradation and urban sprawl as officials encouraged heavy industry and bulldozed agricultural land to build housing developments.


  • Speculators' haven: Indian stocks among the most expensive.


  • Side-effects: Dementia 'linked' to common over-the-counter drugs - Tricyclic antidepressants, Antihistamines used to treat hay-fever and allergies, Antimuscarinics for treating urinary incontinence


  • Crude Rout: U.S. oil well shut-ins start


  • Warmer end of the spectrum: Australia Is heating up faster than the rest of the world


Fwd: Tomorrow: Wed., Jan 28, 12pm: 'Can Modi Reverse India's Welfare Programs? Reflections on the Politics of Public Services in India'

liberation theology -> liberation technology :)

modi can and modi should reverse these ridiculous RTE RTF NREGA type boondoggles. 

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Sindu Singh <sindu1@stanford.edu>
Date: Wed, Jan 28, 2015 at 3:44 AM
Subject: Tomorrow: Wed., Jan 28, 12pm: 'Can Modi Reverse India's Welfare Programs? Reflections on the Politics of Public Services in India'
To: southasiastudents@lists.stanford.edu, southasia@lists.stanford.edu, southasiafaculty@lists.stanford.edu






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Monday, January 26, 2015

Quick notes: Strategic reserve, Drone crash...





"All Wars Are Bankers' Wars" by Michael Rivero

An interesting, well researched perspective on the financial system.

Link to the article:

http://whatreallyhappened.com/WRHARTICLES/allwarsarebankerwars.php#axzz3PxaNmgfC

A video with the same content:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?x-yt-ts=1421914688&v=5hfEBupAeo4&feature=player_embedded&x-yt-cl=84503534

did manmohan kneepcap indian nuke program?

my firstpost piece on that hoax called the 'nuke deal'

my firstpost piece on the fraudulent 'science' waved about by psecs

Saturday, January 24, 2015

Chinese Views, Strategy, and Geopolitics

Robert Kaplan again provides his perspective on China, it's views, strategy, and geopolitics:




Friday, January 23, 2015

"The most exquisite language ever made"

Q: How did your association with Sanskrit begin? What is its place, according to you, in India's current cultural landscape?

Aatish Taseer: It began from a simple desire to go further into India's literary past than my education permitted me to. Elsewhere, this would seem a very natural thing. In India, it was full of a political and historical charge. Sanskrit had become more a symbol than a language and, on both sides of our cultural divide, it roused strong emotions that had very little to do with the language and its literature.

I felt that, like those books that people ban without reading, Sanskrit had been removed from the realm of thought, and made an object of politics and piety, of oppression, of reverence and contempt. It was my aim to avoid these things, and go straight to the language which, as an object for the mind, is among the most exquisite ever made.


(Good, now start Ghar Wapsi in Pakistan)

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Quick notes: India Against Corruption 2.0, Billionaires...

my rediff piece on good, bad, ugly scenarios of US india relationships



i bet the 'bad' scenario, status quo, will prevail despite all the gladhanding and make nice. 

so modi and doval need to tell obama sternly off camera that he better rein in the missionaries or else things can get really ugly.

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sent from samsung galaxy note, so please excuse brevity

India Pushes Back Against China

China has been trying to shove its way into the region, attempting to sideline India, but as recent developments have shown, China can only ignore India at its own peril:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/india-usa-china-idINKBN0KU1IB20150121

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Fwd: Gullible -Just when you thought you knew everything about Charlie Hebdo !!

nice conspiracy theory. it may even be true :-)

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Gautam Sen


FYI

GS

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Vallabh..........
Date: 21 January 2015 at 05:25
Subject: Fwd: Gullible -Just when you thought you knew everything about Charlie Hebdo !!
To: Gautam Sen Dr London
More to your US hegemony theme!
Best 

Sent from my iPhone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Zerxis Umrigar <zerxisum@gmail.com>
Date: 20 January 2015 9:12:33 pm IST
To: undisclosed-recipients:;
Subject: Gullible -Just when you thought you knew everything about Charlie Hebdo !!
Reply-To: HVB1967@googlegroups.com


Paul Craig Roberts

The Charlie Hebdo affair has many of the characteristics of a false flag operation. The attack on the cartoonists' office was a disciplined professional attack of the kind associated with highly trained special forces; yet the suspects who were later corralled and killed seemed bumbling and unprofessional. It is like two different sets of people.

Usually Muslim terrorists are prepared to die in the attack; yet the two professionals who hit Charlie Hebdo were determined to escape and succeeded, an amazing feat. Their identity was allegedly established by the claim that they conveniently left for the authorities their ID in the getaway car. Such a mistake is inconsistent with the professionalism of the attack and reminds me of the undamaged passport found miraculously among the ruins of the two WTC towers that served to establish the identity of the alleged 9/11 hijackers.

It is a plausible inference that the ID left behind in the getaway car was the ID of the two Kouachi brothers, convenient patsies, later killed by police, and from whom we will never hear anything, and not the ID of the professionals who attacked Charlie Hebdo. An important fact that supports this inference is the report that the third suspect in the attack, Hamyd Mourad, the alleged driver of the getaway car, when seeing his name circulating on social media as a suspect realized the danger he was in and quickly turned himself into the police for protection against being murdered by security forces as a terrorist.

Hamyd Mourad says he has an iron-clad alibi. If so, this makes him the despoiler of a false flag attack. Authorities will have to say that despite being wrong about Mourad, they were right about the Kouachi brothers. Alternatively, Mourad could be coerced or tortured into some sort of confession that supports the official story. https://www.intellihub.com/18-year-old-charlie-hebdo-suspect-surrenders-police-claims-alibi/

The American and European media have ignored the fact that Mourad turned himself in for protection from being killed as a terrorist as he has an alibi. I googled Hamid Mourad and all I found (January 12) was the main US and European media reporting that the third suspect had turned himself in. The reason for his surrender was left out of the reports. The news was reported in a way that gave credence to the accusation that the suspect who turned himself in was part of the attack on Charlie Hebdo. Not a single US mainstream media source reported that the alleged suspect turned himself in because he has an ironclad alibi.

Some media merely reported Mourad's surrender in a headline with no coverage in the report. The list that I googled includes the Washington Post (January 7 by Griff Witte and Anthony Faiola); Die Welt (Germany) "One suspect has turned himself in to police in connection with Wednesday's massacre at the offices of Parisian satirical magazine, Charlie Hebdo;" ABC News (January 7) "Youngest suspect in Charlie Hebdo Attack turns himself in;" CNN (January 8) "Citing sources, the Agence France Presse news agency reported that an 18-year-old suspect in the attack had surrendered to police."

Another puzzle in the official story that remains unreported by the presstitute media is the alleged suicide of a high ranking member of the French Judicial Police who had an important role in the Charlie Hebdo investigation. For unknown reasons, Helric Fredou, a police official involved in the most important investigation of a lifetime, decided to kill himself in his police office on January 7 or January 8 (both dates are reported in the foreign media) in the middle of the night while writing his report on his investigation. A google search as of 6pm EST January 13 turns up no mainstream US media report of this event. The alternative media reports it, as do some UK newspapers, but without suspicion or mention whether his report has disappeared. The official story is that Fredou was suffering from "depression" and "burnout," but no evidence is provided. Depression and burnout are the standard explanations of mysterious deaths that have unsettling implications.

Once again we see the US print and TV media serving as a ministry of propaganda for Washington. In place of investigation, the media repeats the government's implausible story.

It behoves us all to think. Why would Muslims be more outraged by cartoons in a Paris magazine than by hundreds of thousands of Muslims killed by Washington and its French and NATO vassals in seven countries during the past 14 years?

If Muslims wanted to make a point of the cartoons, why not bring a hate crime charge or lawsuit? Imagine what would happen to a European magazine that dared to satirize Jews in the way Charlie Hebdo satirized Muslims. Indeed, in Europe people are imprisoned for investigating the holocaust without entirely confirming every aspect of it.

If a Muslim lawsuit was deep-sixed by French authorities, the Muslims would have made their point. Killing people merely contributes to the demonization of Muslims, a result that only serves Washington's wars against Muslim countries.

If Muslims are responsible for the attack on Charlie Hebdo, what Muslim goal did they achieve? None whatsoever. Indeed, the attack attributed to Muslims has ended French and European sympathy and support for Palestine and European opposition to more US wars against Muslims. Just recently France had voted in the UN with Palestine against the US-Israeli position. This assertion of an independent French foreign policy was reinforced by the recent statement by the President of France that the economic sanctions against Russia should be terminated.

Clearly, France was showing too much foreign policy independence. The attack on Charlie Hebdo serves to cow France and place France back under Washington's thumb.

Some will contend that Muslims are sufficiently stupid to shoot themselves in the head in this way. But how do we reconcile such alleged stupidity with the alleged Muslim 9/11 and Charlie Hebdo professional attacks?

If we believe the official story, the 9/11 attack on the US shows that 19 Muslims, largely Saudis, without any government or intelligence service support, outwitted not only all 16 US intelligence agencies, the National Security Council, Dick Cheney and all the neoconservatives in high positions throughout the US government, and airport security, but also the intelligence services of NATO and Israel's Mossad. How can such intelligent and capable people, who delivered the most humiliating blow in world history to an alleged Superpower with no difficulty whatsoever despite giving every indication of their intentions, possibly be so stupid as to shoot themselves in the head when they could have thrown France into turmoil with a mere lawsuit?

The Charlie Hebdo story simply doesn't wash. If you believe it, you are no match for a Muslim.

Some who think that they are experts will say that a false flag attack in France would be impossible without the cooperation of French intelligence. To this I say that it is practically a certainty that the CIA has more control over French intelligence than does the President of France. Operation Gladio proves this. The largest part of the government of Italy was ignorant of the bombings conducted by the CIA and Italian Intelligence against European women and children and blamed on communists in order to diminish the communist vote in elections.

Americans are a pitifully misinformed people. All of history is a history of false flag operations. Yet Americans dismiss such proven operations as "conspiracy theories," which merely proves that government has successfully brainwashed insouciant Americans and deprived them of the ability to recognize the truth.

Americans are the foremost among the captive nations.

Who will liberate them?

Dr. Paul Craig Roberts was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for Economic Policy and associate editor of the Wall Street Journal. He was columnist for Business Week, Scripps Howard News Service, and Creators Syndicate. He has had many university appointments. His internet columns have attracted a worldwide following. Roberts' latest books areThe Failure of Laissez Faire Capitalism and Economic Dissolution of the West and How America Was Lost.


 





--
Dr. Zerxis Umrigar
Prosthodontist.
B.D.S. (Bom. Univ.)
M.S. (Univ. of Iowa- USA)

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sent from samsung galaxy note, so please excuse brevity