Wednesday, November 16, 2005

foreign affairs: china's peaceful rise [sic]

nov 16th

peaceful rise. ROTFLMAO.

Author: Zheng Bijian (Chair of the China Reform Forum)

Source: Foreign Affairs (USA), September/October 2005


CHINA'S RAPID development has attracted worldwide attention in recent years. The implications of various aspects of China's rise, from its expanding influence and military muscle to its growing demand for energy supplies, are being heatedly debated in the international community as well as within China. Correctly understanding China's achievements and its path toward greater development is thus crucial.

Since starting to open up and reform its economy in 1978, China has averaged 9.4 percent annual GDP growth, one of the highest growth rates in the world. In 1978, it accounted for less than one percent of the world economy, and its total foreign trade was worth $20.6 billion. Today, it accounts for four percent of the world economy and has foreign trade worth $851 billion--the third-largest national total in the world. China has also attracted hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment and more than a trillion dollars of domestic nonpublic investment. A dozen years ago, China barely had mobile telecommunications services. Now it claims more than 300 million mobile-phone subscribers, more than any other nation. As of June 2004, nearly 100 million people there had access to the Internet.

Indeed, China has achieved the goal it set for itself in 1978: it has significantly improved the well-being of its people, although its development has often been narrow and uneven. The last 27 years of reform and growth have also shown the world the magnitude of China's labor force, creativity, and purchasing power; its commitment to development; and its degree of national cohesion. Once all of its potential is mobilized, its contribution to the world as an engine of growth will be unprecedented.

One should not, however, lose sight of the other side of the coin. Economic growth alone does not provide a full picture of a country's development. China has a population of 1.3 billion. Any small difficulty in its economic or social development, spread over this vast group, could become a huge problem. And China's population has not yet peaked; it is not projected to decline until it reaches 1.5 billion in 2030. Moreover, China's economy is still just one-seventh the size of the United States' and one-third the size of Japan's. In per capita terms, China remains a low-income developing country, ranked roughly 100th in the world. Its impact on the world economy is still limited.

The formidable development challenges still facing China stem from the constraints it faces in pulling its population out of poverty. The scarcity of natural resources available to support such a huge population--especially energy, raw materials, and water---is increasingly an obstacle, especially when the efficiency of use and the rate of recycling of those materials are low. China's per capita water resources are one-fourth of the amount of the world average, and its per capita area of cultivatable farmland is 40 percent of the world average. China's oil, natural gas, copper, and aluminum resources in per capita terms amount to 8.3 percent, 4.1 percent, 25.5 percent, and 9.7 percent of the respective world averages.


FOR THE NEXT few decades, the Chinese nation will be preoccupied with securing a more comfortable and decent life for its people. Since the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, held in 1978, the Chinese leadership has concentrated on economic development. Through its achievements so far, China has blazed a new strategic path that suits its national conditions while conforming to the tides of history. This path toward modernization can be called "the development path to a peaceful rise." Some emerging powers in modern history have plundered other countries' resources through invasion, colonization, expansion, or even large-scale wars of aggression. China's emergence thus far has been driven by capital, technology, and resources acquired through peaceful means.

The most significant strategic choice the Chinese have made was to embrace economic globalization rather than detach themselves from it. In the late 1970s, when the new technological revolution and a new wave of economic globalization were unfolding with great momentum, Beijing grasped the trend and reversed the erroneous practices of the Cultural Revolution. On the basis of the judgment that China's development would depend on its place in an open world, Deng Xiaoping and other Chinese leaders decided to seize the historic opportunity and shift the focus of their work to economic development. They carried out reforms meant to open up and foster domestic markets and tap into international ones. They implemented the household contracting system in rural areas and opened up 14 coastal cities, thus ushering in a period of economic takeoff.

In the 1990s, China once again confronted a strategic choice, due to the Asian financial crisis and the subsequent struggle between the forces for and against globalization. China's decision to participate in economic globalization was facing a serious challenge. But by carefully weighing the advantages and disadvantages of economic openness and drawing lessons from recent history, Beijing decided to open up China even more, by joining the World Trade Organization and deepening economic reform at home.

China has based its modernization process mainly on its domestic resources. It has relied on ideological and institutional innovations and on industrial restructuring. By exploring the growing domestic market and transferring the huge personal savings of its citizens into investment, China has infused its economy with new momentum. Its citizens' capacities are being upgraded and its technological progress expedited. Even while attempting to learn from and absorb useful products from other societies, including those of the advanced capitalist countries, China has maintained its independence and self-reliance.

In pursuing the goal of rising in peace, the Chinese leadership has strived for improving China's relations with all the nations of the world. Despite the ups and downs in U.S.-Chinese relations over the years, as well as other dramatic changes in international politics, such as the collapse of the Soviet Union, Beijing has stuck to the belief that there are more opportunities than challenges for China in today's international environment.


ACCORDING TO China's strategic plans, it will take another 45 years--until 2050--before it can be called a modernized, medium-level developed country. China will face three big challenges before it gets there. As described above, China's shortage of resources poses the first problem. The second is environmental: pollution, waste, and a low rate of recycling together present a major obstacle to sustainable development. The third is a lack of coordination between economic and social development.

This last challenge is reflected in a series of tensions Beijing must confront: between high GDP growth and social progress, between upgrading technology and increasing job opportunities, between keeping development momentum in the coastal areas and speeding up development in the interior, between fostering urbanization and nurturing agricultural areas, between narrowing the gap between the rich and the poor and maintaining economic vitality and efficiency, between attracting more foreign investment and enhancing the competitiveness of indigenous enterprises, between deepening reform and preserving social stability, between opening domestic markets and solidifying independence, between promoting market-oriented competition and taking care of disadvantaged people. To cope with these dilemmas successfully, a number of well-coordinated policies are needed to foster development that is both faster and more balanced.

The policies the Chinese government has been carrying out, and will continue to carry out, in the face of these three great challenges can be summarized as three grand strategies--or "three transcendences."

The first strategy is to transcend the old model of industrialization and to advance a new one. The old industrialization was characterized by rivalry for resources in bloody wars and by high investment, high consumption of energy, and high pollution. Were China to follow this path, it would harm both others and itself. China is instead determined to forge a new path of industrialization based on technology, economic efficiency, low consumption of natural resources relative to the size of its population, low environmental pollution, and the optimal allocation of human resources. The Chinese government is trying to find new ways to reduce the percentage of the country's imported energy sources and to rely more on China's own. The objective is to build a "society of thrift."

The second strategy is to transcend the traditional ways for great powers to emerge, as well as the Cold War mentality that defined international relations along ideological lines. China will not follow the path of Germany leading up to World War I or those of Germany and Japan leading up to World War II, when these countries violently plundered resources and pursued hegemony. Neither will China follow the path of the great powers vying for global domination during the Cold War. Instead, China will transcend ideological differences to strive for peace, development, and cooperation with all countries of the world.

The third strategy is to transcend outdated modes of social control and to construct a harmonious socialist society. The functions transformed, with self-governance supplementing state administration. China is strengthening its democratic institutions and the rule of law and trying to build a stable society based on a spiritual civilization. A great number of ideological and moral-education programs have been launched.

Several dynamic forces are noticeable in the carrying out of the three strategies. For example, there are numerous clusters of vigorously developing cities in the coastal areas of eastern and southern China, and similar clusters are emerging in the central and western regions. They constitute the main engines of growth, are the major manufacturing and trading centers, and absorb surplus rural labor. They also have high productivity, advanced culture, and accumulated international experience that the rest of China can emulate and learn from. The expansion of China's middle-income strata and the growing need for international markets come mainly from these regions.

China's surplus of rural workers, who have strong aspirations to escape poverty, is another force that is pushing Chinese society into industrial civilization. About ten million rural Chinese migrate to urban areas each year in an orderly and protected way. They both provide Chinese cities with new productivity and new markets and help end the backwardness of rural areas. Innovations in science and technology and culture are also driving China toward modernization and prosperity in the twenty-first century.

The Chinese government has set up targets for development for the next 50 years. This period is divided into three stages. In the first stage--2000 to 2010--total GDP is to be doubled. In the second stage, ending in 2020, total GDP is to be doubled again, at which point China's per capita GDP is expected to reach $3,000. In the third, from 2020 to 2050, China will continue to advance until it becomes a prosperous, democratic, and civilized socialist country. By that time, China will have shaken off underdevelopment and will be on a par with the middle rung of advanced nations. It can then claim to have succeeded in achieving a "peaceful rise."


CHINA'S PEACEFUL RISE will further open its economy so that its population can serve as a growing market for the rest of the world, thus providing increased opportunities for--rather than posing a threat to--the international community. A few figures illustrate China's current contribution to global trade: in 2004, China's imports from members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased by 33.1 percent, from Japan by 27.3 percent, from India by 80 percent, from the European Union by 28 percent, and from the United States by 31.9 percent.

China is not the only power that seeks a peaceful rise. China's economic integration into East Asia has contributed to the shaping of an East Asian community that may rise in peace as a whole. And it would not be in China's interest to exclude the United States from the process. In fact, Beijing wants Washington to play a positive role in the region's security as well as economic affairs. The beginning of the twenty-first century is seeing a number of countries rising through different means, while following different models, and at different paces. At the same time, the developed countries are further developing themselves. This is a trend to be welcomed.

China does not seek hegemony or predominance in world affairs. It advocates a new international political and economic order, one that can be achieved through incremental reforms and the democratization of international relations. China's development depends on world peace--a peace that its development will in turn reinforce.


Anonymous said...

Apologies for the diversion, but wanted to post this:

Ministers who handled the Education portfolio from 1956 to date in Kerala.

1957-1959 Joseph Mundassery (Christian)

1960-1962 P.P.Ummerkoya (Muslim)

1962-1962 P.P. Ummerkoya (Muslim)

1964-1969 C.H.Mohamed Koya (Muslim)

1969-1970 C.H.Mohamed koya (Muslim)

1970-1973 C.H.Mohamd Koya (Muslim)

1973-1977 C.H.Mohamed Koya (Muslim)

1977 January to March 1978 U.A.beeran (Muslim)

1978-1979 C.H.Mohamed Koya (Muslim)

1980-1981 Baby John (Christian)

1981-1982 P.J.Joseph (Christian)

1982-1987 T.M.Jacob (Christian)

1987-1991 K.Chandrasekharan (Socialist/Communist)

1991-1996 E.T.Mohamed Basheer (Muslim)

1996-2001 P.J.Joseph (Christian)

2001-2004 Nalakath Soopy (Muslim)

2004-to date E.T.Mohamed basheer (Muslim)

Anyone see a pattern here? Or a mere coincidence? "Act of God" as one would say?

san said...

Here's one that puts us back on topic:

They make some good points about the "upcoming superpower" -- their economy is only 1/7 of the USA's, or 1/3 of Japan's.

Hah, I like the jab against "market Leninism" -- all they basically have left is authoritarianism in that govt.

san said...

Looks like that latest Naxalite seige-attack on the Jehanabad prison may have been orchestrated by dear Comrade Lalu:

I think Comrade Lalu needs to be put under police surveillance. Then when the smoking gun of his activity is presented to Sonia, she can once again proclaim her outrage and fire yet another coalition partner, dooming her govt to the nothingness from which it came. After all, if you take all the corrupt people out of UPA, then who is going to be left?

Anonymous said...

After all, if you take all the corrupt people out of UPA, then who is going to be left?

The LEFT. They will be around to see our majority Hindu values die a slow tortuous death.

indianpatriot said...

Another good article by T.V.R.Shenoy. Will next week be the beginning of end of Ulta Pulta Alliance.

Too many Red faces

Take a deep breath Dr Singh, next week is going to be tough


Posted online: Thursday, November 17, 2005 at 0000 hours IST

The moon has set as I write, marking the formal end of Gurpurab, the birth anniversary of Guru Nanak. I hope Prime Minister Manmohan Singh seized the opportunity to visit the nearest Gurdwara. Not only does he need all the blessings he can get, it may be a long time till he again hears massed voices raised in chant rather than in rage.

The working week that begins on Monday is likely to be the stormiest Dr Manmohan Singh has faced since the United Progressive Alliance took office. Fate has conspired to place a clutch of issues in the spotlight just as Parliament begins its winter session. Bihar, I suspect, shall dominate proceedings, but India’s foreign policy vis-a-vis Iran, Iraq and the United States shall gather its fair share of thunder.

Let us begin with Bihar. Two judgements are expected next week, from the people of Bihar in the Vidhan Sabha elections, and from the Supreme Court on the constitutionality of those polls. Nobody shall blame Dr Manmohan Singh should the United Progressive Alliance perform poorly. The Congress has all but wiped its hands of the state, putting up just 51 candidates for a 243-strong Assembly. A party that held an overwhelming majority in the Bihar Vidhan Sabha as late as January 1990 now plays the part of Lalu Prasad Yadav’s poodle. (Win or lose, the Rashtriya Janata Dal boss will try to further undermine the Congress.) However, these political issues lie in Sonia Gandhi’s domain, not that of Dr Manmohan Singh.

He will find it harder to evade a punch from the Supreme Court. Their Lordships have already declared that the decision to dissolve the Bihar assembly earlier this year was “unconstitutional”. They had not however delivered the full judgement. (Nor overturned the act of dissolution as they might have done.) What happens if the Supreme Court chooses to spell out just who was responsible for the “unconstitutional” shenanigans in Patna and New Delhi?

Nothing in the Constitution says the Union cabinet must accept a recommendation from a governor. The prime minister and his colleagues were expected to use their own best judgement before taking so grave — and so undemocratic — a decision as dissolving an assembly before it met even once. Buta Singh’s enlightenment about horse-trading, the midnight summons to the cabinet over a weekend, that hasty fax to the president in distant Moscow — this is an affair that reeks of rotting fish.

Some have sought to deflect the blame, to Rashtrapati Bhavan. This is unjust. At best, the president can ask the cabinet to reconsider. But this is where Dr Manmohan Singh and Shivraj Patil come squarely into the picture. Both have earned a reputation as honest men, people whose word you can take without fear. Where a president might have hesitated with other ministers, he would have believed that these two intelligent and trustworthy men would never do anything shabby. The prime minister and the home minister haven’t just let the president down, they took a hammer to their own reputation when they signed that fax to Moscow. Will their word carry the same moral authority now that you know how they bent to blackmail from their allies?

They cannot even claim the fig leaf of giving Bihar a decent administration. Constitutionally, the Union government assumes all responsibility for a state after imposing president’s rule. This puts the burden of explaining the Naxalites’ audacious “Operation Jailbreak” on the Union home minister. How on earth did they stage a raid on Jehanabad’s jail when the whole state was reportedly flooded with security personnel?

The embarrassment caused by the Maoists in Bihar goes hand in hand with the disruption planned by Marxists elsewhere. The Left Front and the Samajwadi Party have joined hands to turn Indian diplomacy on its head. Speaking at a conclave in Lucknow, they demanded that the Manmohan Singh government tilt towards Iran should it be censured for nuclear proliferation. “Together, we have over 110 MPs in the Lok Sabha,” was the message of the day. The words, “change your vote, or face the consequences,” may not have been spoken, but they were heard loud and clear.

This is gamesmanship taken to new depths. It ignored the fact that Iran has been condemned by the United Nations agencies (something that was absent in the case of Iraq), and that India’s security environment would be notably degraded in the event of Iran manufacturing nuclear weapons. It is a clear ploy for Muslim votes, given that the threat was made in front of the assembled Islamic clergy. (The Khilafat agitation was the last attempt to make domestic politics hostage to events in a foreign country; it led to a heightened sense of Muslim separatism.) And, of course, it tears the prime minister’s authority to shreds.

Dr Manmohan Singh was fighting an uphill battle in trying to improve relations with the United States. His former external affairs minister stands exposed as an unreconstructed Cold Warrior. But staying true to India’s interests means the prime minister faces his first head-on clash with the Left Front. After that open threat in Lucknow it is impossible for either side to withdraw without loss of face. All this and the Volcker Committee Report too!

November 13 was the 125th birth anniversary of Maharaja Ranjit Singh, the last great Sikh ruler in India. “One day, everything will be red!” he predicted on seeing the tide of British acquisitions creeping toward Punjab. Watching events unfold, I believe next week shall leave several Congressmen, if not “Red”, then red-faced!