Sunday, July 30, 2017
India could never be bothered to say such things of China whenever Pak acted up with Chinese support. China should also think twice about starting a war with India over Doklam, when it already has some big powers angry at it over its other antics.
Saturday, July 29, 2017
Fwd: D China, India must prevent border tensions from blocking progress toward RCEP+China Pak Water Axis on the Indus + Non Traditional Threats: South Asia's “Meth” Traffic
From: Sanjeev Nayyar
4. There is a method in China's Doklam Stand 19.7.17 by bhaskar roy http://www.southasiaanalysis.
From: Sanjeev Nayyar
India's refusal to be part of OBOR and Doklam stand-off has made China occupy more mind space than at any time in the recent past. Conversely Global Times, mouthpiece of the Communist Party of China, regularly publishes articles threatening and advising India.
Till now, Indians thought their primary enemy was Pakistan, a neighbour whose people are of the same stock and seen on prime time. With China it is different.
How does one deal with a neighbour who is determined to be Asia's leading power and "steer you towards participation in its grand geopolitical design represented by the Belt and Road Initiative", grabs your territory stealthily, is less visible, makes equipment at a lower cost, whose phones you use, has deep pockets, uses Pakistan to keep you tied down, woos your neighbours and impedes your emergence as a rival power.
How should India deal with China? First some broad contours.
Our mantra should be cooperate and compete. Be firm, keep channels of communication open and never let your guard down. There is no need for India to be submissive because China's GDP is five times ours and ape its achievements in infrastructure and manufacturing. India's actions should be driven by its civilizational values and not in response to Chinese moves. In Africa India must play to its strengths. We need partners to make China understand the need for mutual respect. Every Indian move has to be timed and not give China an opportunity to play the victim card. Simultaneously, we can work together for greater benefit e.g. climate change.
India needs an integrated and comprehensive policy towards China. Here is what she must do.
One: China is doing what it does because of economic strength. India must be focussed on becoming an economic and military power.
Two: The next time China offers to play a constructive role in improving relations between India and Pakistan, India must offer to help China in resolving its disputes with Japan, Vietnam, Taiwan and Philippines amongst others.
Three: The more the Chinese needle us, the firmer must be our resolve. Sometimes India could, with a smile, show China the mirror for e.g. by asking why it supports terrorism.
Four: One of the reasons for China flexing its muscles is improved relations with Russia. The latter needs Chinese support to counter the U.S. led economic sanctions and in Afghanistan. India must not get unnerved because China might, true to its nature, turn the tables on Russia once it becomes a dominant partner.
Five: On ties with Russia and U.S. former foreign secretary Kanwal Sibal recently wrote, "We must have both the US and Russia as close partners and work with both countries on issues where our respective interests coincide without undermining the legitimate interests of either country."
Six: India must woo Taiwanese companies to invest in India esp. in telecom hardware.
Seven: Sooner than later China shall use water as a weapon against India. Study the impact of the proposed "the 400-km cascade of dams on the Indus will stretch all the way from Gilgit-Baltistan to the existing Tarbela Dam near Islamabad." Ditto for Brahmaputra.
Eight: India must be steadfast in its stand that Gilgit and Baltisthan are part of India and provide "political, diplomatic and moral support to the Baloch people who may be engaged in disrupting the corridor".
It is counter-moves that could put pressure on China or else India is always left responding.
Nine: India invariably associates defending the border by the army. Since it is impossible to guard every inch of land India is always under pressure. We need to change tack as noted columnist Nitin Pai recently wrote. "India should respond to Chinese moves in the Himalayas and the subcontinent with counter-moves in the South China Sea and beyond. By using sea power in a geography that China is sensitive about, India could raise the costs of Beijing's Himalayan enterprises". 1
Ten: Agni IV, V and Brahmos missiles are yet to be inducted into the armed forces. Government must raise the bar and induct by September quarter 2018 if not earlier.
Eleven: On the border issue, every time China raises it we must remind them of the 1996 agreement, unilaterally repudiated by them in 2002, where it was agreed to 'clarifying the alignment of the LAC in those segments where they (the two sides) have different perceptions'. The ball is in China's court.
Twelve: China is not only at our border but has an ever increasing presence in trade, business and financial markets.
Writing in MINT, Rajrishi Singhal gave three examples of such presence. The author analyses intent and suggests response. 2
One, recently Chinese handset manufacturer Vivo won rights to cricket tournament Indian Premier League. "Vivo will pay Rs 2,199 crore for the next five years i.e. a 267% premium over the base price of Rs 120 crore a year". Subsequently Vivo signed a record five-year deal worth Rs 300 crore with Star Sports, broadcaster for Pro Kabaddi League.
Is it not odd for a company to bid at record levels and invest so much money in sponsorships? The deeper intent is to associate Chinese brands with two popular Indians sports.
Vivo could be a front for the Chinese government just like it widely believed that a "Chinese-origin Singaporean billionaire is for Rs 305 crore massive gilded statue of Buddha" being built in Thimpu.
It is unfair to expect honourable judges and sports administrators to understand geo-political strategies.
Since cricket is India's biggest religion the government could ask BCCI to revisit the Vivo sponsorship offer.
Two, Singhal wrote, "So also in the 12th Plan alone, close to 30% of generating capacity was sourced from China (goo.gl/5yB67A), with the trend continuing in the 13th Plan as well."
In such and similar sectors the government could introduce the concept of Minimum Import Price (MIP) as was done in the steel sector. MIP is the minimum price per tonne that Indian firms have to pay while importing products into India and was introduced to counter unfair trade practices. Remember only when Indian companies make profits will they invest in fresh capacity.
Three, "among the list of banks managing the recent Central Depository Services Ltd initial public offering was a curious name: Haitong Securities India Pvt Ltd. Haitong, as per its website, is China's second largest securities firm."
An open invite to FDI is fine but access has to be mutual.
The government must use tariff and non-tariff barriers to keep the Chinese at bay.
Thirteen: Be it investing in infrastructure projects in Iran, India's neighbourhood or building a Buddha statue in Bhutan, India must look to pool its resources with Japan.
Fourteen: China must be told that an escalation of border tensions would severely impact trade ties and reaching trade agreements at the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) to be held in Hyderabad this week.
National achievements and soft power are important tools of psychological warfare. So -
Fifteen: The government must keep Team ISRO motivated so India's achievements in space technology continue.
Sixteen: Identify sports where China dominates but India has competence, for example, badminton and then build world champions. Work towards sustained dominance and do not get swayed by a few victories.
Seventeen: India has gifted China, Buddhism then and Yoga now. This needs wide publicity.
Inspite of the fact that yoga helps Chinese women, mostly in the age group of 25 to 40, to remain young, healthy and fit China keeps threatening India by saying it will teach it a lesson. Notwithstanding Chinese hostility, the government must encourage more Indians esp. those from the northeast, to learn yoga and offer to help the Chinese.
Simultaneously the world, Chinese and Indians included must know that -
Eighteen: Annexing areas comes naturally to China. It annexed Tibet, Manchuria, Xinjiang and parts of Mongolia. To this add 38,000 sq kms of Akshai Chin (part of the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir), that has since provided China with the only passageway between Tibet and Xinjiang.
Nineteen: China supports countries that indulge in terrorism and are a threat to world peace. For example the Pakistan North Korea nuclear and missile nexus. Last year Samuel Ramani wrote in thediplomat.com, "During the early 1990s, Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto purchased Rodong long-range missiles from North Korea. In exchange, Pakistan supplied Pyongyang with "civilian nuclear technology". In 2002, U.S. officials announced that Pakistan had exported gas centrifuges to help North Korea enrich uranium and construct a nuclear bomb." 3
By using Pakistan as a route for nuclear materials entering North Korea China could strengthen the DPRK's military capabilities without spoiling relations with the U.S.
A second example is Chinese support to Pakistan, a country that gave refuge to Osama Bin Laden and uses terror as an instrument of State policy.
Next India must invest in and nurture relations -
Twenty: With a countries of Southeast Asia, the subcontinent and Japan.
Twenty-one: Former ambassador and senior diplomat G Parthasarathy recently wrote that India has won gratitude in vocational training and education facilities for Myanmar personnel. He added our focus should be on assisting populations living close to our borders through imaginative schemes for education, health, communications and small/village industries.
Twenty-two: Start direct flights between Imphal and Yangon and road connectivity. Both would increase trade and tourism.
Twenty-three: Nepal and Bangladesh are welcome to do business with China. Give them a booklet of "how Chinese investments in Africa, Sri Lanka and Myanmar have faced strong local backlash and national election campaigns in Zambia and Sri Lanka were held on an anti-China plank."
Read China's debt trap diplomacy by Brahma Chellaney https://chellaney.net/2017/01/
Twenty-four: In case China makes a railway line to Nepal make it known to our brothers there that India would not allow import of Chinese goods through the Indo-Nepal border.
Twenty-five: India needs to promote tourism to the Northeast in a big way. The regions development and integration is critical to the success of India's Look East Policy.
Lastly, the Centre needs to counter possible Chinese moves to influence elections in India. The Chinese might do so because it believes that with every election victory BJP's stand on international issues gets tougher.
Read BJP's election win has implications for Sino-India ties http://www.globaltimes.cn/
How India must respond to Chinese investments in Africa requires a separate piece.
Soft and psychological power become potent when accompanied by comprehensive national strength. If and when Indian builds it, the intelligent will get the message.
The author is an independent columnist. He tweets @sanjeev1927
1. Why India should rely on sea power to manage China's provocations http://www.business-standard.
2.The Chinese encirclement: within and without - http://www.livemint.com/
3.The long history of Pakistan China nexis http://thediplomat.com/2016/
Also read -
1.China's conduct and logic of power - http://www.livemint.com/
2.China Pak Water Axis on the Indus http://www.idsa.in/issuebrief/
3. Are import restrictions to blame for India's trade deficit with China? http://www.livemint.com/
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Fwd: India needs to be prepared for all eventualities+China’s challenging neighborhood diplomacy+How lack of synergy is hurting Indian Army’s hunt for weapons
From: Sanjeev Nayyar
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Friday, July 28, 2017
My speculation is that this development might be CPEC-related. Nawaz had positioned himself and his family (daughter) to be prime beneficiaries under China's CPEC investment scheme. Pak Army may have felt uncomfortable with Nawaz getting so aligned/cosy with Big-daddy China, because that would leave Pak Army at a disadvantage in the power equation. At some point, Nawaz might have been able to call the shots regarding Pak Army, just by making phone calls to Beijing. Getting rid of Nawaz now could help preserve Pak Army's future autonomy.
I wonder how Musharraf must be feeling over the latest news.
Thursday, July 27, 2017
Wednesday, July 26, 2017
- U.R. Rao: Genial genius of ISRO. Dr. Rao’s space journey blossomed under the tutelage of Vikram Sarabhai, his doctoral guide and later boss at ISRO: in 1972, Sarabhai tasked the young Rao — fresh from MIT and the only Indian then who had worked on NASA’s Pioneer and Explorer satellite projects — with building an Indian satellite... Scientist who turned sheds into space labs.
- Criminal conspiracy: Chinese fake parts for 'desi Bofors'
- Something weird going on with Western men's sperm: Study finds sharp decline in male fertility in Western Nations from 1973 to 2011. Sperm counts seem to have dropped by more than 50 percent. Research out of China suggests a more recent sperm count decline. Over the past 20 years, China has become more Western in terms of environmental pollutants and dietary habits.
- Marlboro Country: Tobacco MNC Philip Morris takes aim at young people with tactics that break India’s anti-smoking laws.
- One more to the list: UK to ban sale of petrol and diesel cars by 2040
- Trees can make or break city weather:Even a single urban tree can help moderate wind speeds and keep pedestrians comfortable as they walk down the street.
- Purifying Sinners: Congregants of the Word of Faith Fellowship were regularly punched, smacked, choked, slammed to the floor or thrown through walls in a violent form of deliverance meant to “purify” sinners by beating out devils. Prosecutors tried to sabotage investigation.
Monday, July 24, 2017
Sunday, July 23, 2017
I think he could have added space cooperation to the list of collaborative fronts.
Also, the F-16 is an old aircraft, but the F-18 has newer iterations which the US Navy wants to use as its main combat plane, so it might be good for India to look at.
Thursday, July 20, 2017
- Bad-loans crisis: Even the best-case scenario for Indian banks is pretty awful. To recover over Rs4 lakh crore from the top 50 companies that haven’t been able to repay their debts, banks may have to take a haircut of as much as 60%, resulting in a loss of about Rs2.4 lakh crore.
- Solar-powered coaches: A train with six solar-powered coaches could save around 21,000 litres of diesel every year, worth around Rs12 lakh.
- Coming soon to India: Electric buses that can swap batteries at petrol pump-like facilities. Swappable batteries could be the potential game changer in India.
- East Coast Greenway: The biggest infrastructure project in the US is a 3,000-mile bike path
- Goa is phoren: No beef shortage in Goa, assures Manohar Parrikar.
- Religious contributions: Christian, Muslim households top in donations for charity
- Francois Gautier: Ten Things a Hindu Can Do While Using English Language
1. Please stop using the word "God fearing" - Hindus never ever fear God. For us, God is everywhere and we are also integral part of God. God is not a separate entity to fear.
2. Please do not use the meaningless term "RIP" when someone dies. Use "Om Shanti", "Sadgati" or "I wish this atma attains moksha". Hinduism neither has the concept of "soul" nor its "resting". The terms "Atma" and "Jeeva" are, in a way, antonyms for the word "soul".
3. Please don't use the word "Mythology" for our historic epics (Itihas) Ramayana and Mahabharata. Rama and Krishna are historical heroes, not just mythical characters.
3. Please don't be apologetic about idol worship and say “Oh, that's just symbolic". All religions have idolatry in kinds or forms - cross, words, letters (calligraphy) or direction. Also let's stop using the words the words 'idols', 'statues' or 'images' when we refer to the sculptures of our Gods. Use the terms 'Moorthi' or 'Vigraha'. If words like Karma, Yoga, Guru and Mantra can be in the mainstream, why not Moorthi or Vigraha?
4. Please don't refer to Ganesh and Hanuman as "Elephant god" and "Monkey god" respectively. You can simply write Shree Ganesh and Shree Hanuman.
5. Please don't refer to our temples as prayer halls. Temples are "devalaya" (abode of god) and not "prathanalaya" (Prayer halls).
6. Please don't wish your children "black birthday" by letting them to blow off the candles that kept at the top of the birth day cake. Don't throw spit on the divine fire (Agni Deva). Instead, ask them to pray: "Oh divine fire, lead me from darkness to light" (Thamasoma Jyotirgamaya) by lighting a lamp. These are all strong images that go to deep psyche.
7. Please avoid using the words "spirituality" and "materialistic". For a Hindu, everything is divine. The words spirituality and materialism came to India through evangelists and Europeans who had a concept of Church vs State. Or Science vs Religion. On the contrary, in India, Sages were scientists and the foundation stone of Sanatan Dharma was Science.
9. Please don't use the word "Sin" instead of "Paapa". We only have Dharma (duty, righteousness, responsibility and privilege) and Adharma (when dharma is not followed). Dharma has nothing to do with social or religious morality. 'Papa' derives from Adharma.
10. Please don't use loose translation like meditation for "dhyana" and 'breathing exercise' for "Pranayama". It conveys wrong meanings. Use the original words. Remember, the world respects only those who respect themselves! Please circulate so that people can understand about their Hindu Dharma....
#8 is missing?
The drop in industrial output means that another rate-cut is likely in the future. With GST, more international investment will keep coming.
Wednesday, July 19, 2017
Tuesday, July 18, 2017
Because Doklam is extremely close to India's vulnerable "Chicken Neck", the Siliguri corridor, this matter is vital to India's security. Likewise, because of its sensitivity, India has tens of thousands of troops near there, as compared to China's thousands. But because of that local asymmetry, China would likely resort to incursions on other parts of the border with India in order to make the whole border an active front.
PS: If they're going to attack, they'd better do it before the onset of winter forces a retreat.
Monday, July 17, 2017
ISRO sources said it may take another year for the model to be ready. They said the present plan is to launch the RLV-TD from Sriharikota and land it on an undisclosed Air Force airfield in the eastern sector. This is yet to be finalised though, they said.
The vehicle will be launched out of Sriharikota, like the last time, but this time it will have landing gear to allow it to glide back for a touchdown on a runway. The landing will most likely be done at an airfield in the Andaman & Nicobar Islands. The planned future TSTO (Two-Stage-to-Orbit) reusable launch vehicle which will be developed from the RLV-TD test program is intended to fly the same kind of flight path.
Sunday, July 16, 2017
From: The Economist News Desk <firstname.lastname@example.org>
Date: Fri, Jul 14, 2017 at 10:54 PM
Subject: Turkey arrests Amnesty International's local director
This is why it's silly to worry about "taking back" yoga, "cultural appropriation", etc - let people be free to enjoy something they like, because it's all about freedom of choice.