Consequences of Egypt's Revolution

One of the positive consequences of Egypt's democratic revolution is that Pak's rear-guard support will now be put under threat. Undemocratic Arab regimes like Saudi and Jordan - the same police states which have given Pak vital financial and logistical support in the past - will now be tottering and forced to focus on domestic policies to shore up popular support, rather than lounging around and playing geopolitical chess games abroad. If these regimes topple, then Pak would literally be left with only China to count upon.

As Egypt transitions to full democracy, Israel will similarly feel isolated and vulnerable, given that a post-Mubarak govt will most likely be less friendly/reliable as an ally. As it is, there's already a problem of smuggling and illegal cross-border transit from Egypt to the Gaza Strip. With a less cooperative Egyptian govt in power, then the Gaza situation could go from bad to worse, keeping heightened tensions between the two countries even if not provoking outright war, with Israel relying on its nukes as its ultimate guarantor.

One negative possibility is that an increasingly desperate Pak would seek opportunities in any renewed Middle East conflicts by exporting its nukes for badly-needed cash and support. This would then cause more problems for the US/West rather than just India only. The US/West should redouble their efforts to get Pak to sign FMCT, before suffering a rude shock. What if Egypt bought Pak's nukes, or even Saudis nervous about their increasingly vulnerable state? Certainly arch-enemy Iran is looking to seek advantage from the fall of their hated American lackey Mubarak.

Now that the Middle East is entering into increasing flux once again, India should keep vigilant and not be caught off-guard by new developments that would work for or against it.

Corruption in Egypt and in India

Here's an interesting news magazine episode, covering corruption both in Egypt and India:

Egyptians Protest Against Mubarak Govt

Massive protests are occurring in Egypt, with large numbers of people taking to streets to call for the ouster of the ruling Mubarak regime:



The US is curiously taking a slightly different line this time as compared to the past, calling for more political reform in Egypt.

It's clearly in the best interests of the Egyptian people and the region that the Mubarak govt go. Sure, the Israelis might be nervous about it, but in the long run they would benefit from the removal of a dictatorship which only motivates local fundamentalist groups to form against it.

Given recent sightings of Rahul-baba in the company of fellow crown prince Gamal Mubarak, I think the fewer despots that remain for Rahul to draw inspiration from the better.

Pak too gains a lot of mileage from the Arab dictatorships located in the Gulf and elsewhere. As we can see, it's not just been Egypt suffering protests in the aftermath of the collapse of Tunisia's strongman, but various other Gulf states including Jordan and others. Without Egypt nearby to support it, the handwriting would be on the wall for the Saudis. If the Middle Eastern dictatorships disappear, then Pakistan would have almost nobody left to lean on, apart from China. They would effectively be isolated.