Monday, May 18, 2009

did BJP lose because it didn't win UP?

may 18th, 2009
 
i don't think so. i think UP is no longer so relevant because there are so many power brokers there: mayavati, mulayam singh, paswan. they end up neutralizing each other.
 
the key now are the big states of andhra and tamil nadu.
 
it appears that if you can win (or defraud your way in) in andhra and tamil nadu, you don't need UP.

in any case, the BJP's losses in UP are collateral damage in the EVM fraud targeting mayavati.
 
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: sri

4 comments:

Anoop's Blog said...

Yes, I agree that UPA got power both in 2004 and 2009 is by winning TN and AP. Hopefully, BJP starts to ramp up their operations in these states. Especially in AP, they are really close in breaking through. If it were a "fair" election, it could have won definitively Secundrabad and Malkajgiri.

Anoop

san said...

UP needs to be broken down into smaller states anyway, to reduce the virtual civil war there.

M. Patil said...

Anoop,

Why do you say that? I thought Venkaiah Naidu lost Secundrabad by a considerable margin?

Malavika

Anoop's Blog said...

Malavika

It was Dattatreya who lost actually...Secundrabad, Malkajgiri along with Chevala that surround city of Hyderabad are very good candidates for BJP to win. They have won Secundrabad in 1999 and Malkajgiri is a new constituency along with Chevala. Anjan Kumar Yadav was a nobody until last elections. Congress was so sure that there was no chance to win Sec-bad, they gave it Yadav at the last minute because of a last minute defection. Dattanna lost in 1999 because of anti-incumbency factor for TDP. This time too, Congress was not confident to win the election in Sec-bad as Yadav was absent for past five years. No one in the area actually knows him, and he is not from the area too.

I haven't seen the vote percentages, to be honest. So I am not sure by how much Dattanna lost by. There is a lot of ground work ready for BJP and if they spend some time and resources, this could be a very good constituency to win, along with Malkajgiri, Chavela, Medak ( won in 1999 by BJP) and to some extent Bhongir and Nalagonda.

Again, I used to be very active in city BJP unit, but haven't been back for election in last so many years. Most of my analysis is based on what I know from friends, family, news papers and internet. My wishful thinking might be far from reality, I agree.

anoop