Wednesday, January 03, 2007

some thoughts on US stocks

jan 3rd, 2007

disclaimer: these are not stock tips, you follow my ideas at your own risk and i disclaim all responsibility

i have been doing a little research at year end considering some portfolio rebalancing, and these are stocks i took a look at. any comments?

DELL is sucking wind at 25, PE = 20.4, a possible buy opportunity given that they seem headed for trouble and the CFO has resigned

MSFT is at 30, close to 2006 high, PE = 23.7, but with vista coming out and office coming out could be a buy. besides they do have a dividend

TXN texas instruments at 28.8 near 2006 low, PE = 10.54, dividend of 14cents. it is on a bit of downturn

MOT motorola is at 20.56 near 2006 low, PE = 12.24, dividend of 20cents. should be looking up given its presence in low-end handsets

Altria philip morris (yes, the cigarette guys and vendors of death, but they give a dividend of $3), at 85 close to 2006 high, PE = 15.89

YHOO 25.36 close to 2006 low, lots of insider sales in Q4

T (at&t) at 35, at 52-week high, but has momentum, high PE, high dividend, and bellsouth acquisition may depress earnings in 2007 but will improve them over time.

5 comments:

san said...

Briefly OT, but Podzinger now allows you to do audio searches on YouTube:

http://splashcastmedia.com/search-youtube-audio-with-podzinger

Try it out, and see the amazing results.

Getting back to stocks/economy, the Fed has recently given an ambivalent assessment for the economic outlook, saying that on the one hand it's concerned about possible inflation (which would be a sign of economic overheating), while on the other hand it's concerned about a possible slowdown.

I think it looks increasingly like the US will move towards a soft landing. Globalization seems to have provided US companies with convenient new ways to weather economic stresses without having to completely close up shop. Because of this, we're less likely to see extreme events of big companies collapsing, as they instead ooze to other locales to achieve cost savings. This extra fluidity makes for greater economic efficiency, and a global economy that is more buffered, and which now hovers around a trendline.

It also means increasing strains on our environment, so investment in alternative energy stocks is wise. But the main interest seems to be in Asian stocks, which is where the main conventional growth is right now.

bly243001 said...

.....and in other news, JNU was closed yesterday because of mass epileptic seizures all around the campus on hearing-

Ancient Vishnu idol found in Russian town

KapiDhwaja said...

Very interesting news, about the ancient Vishnu idol in Russia. Some years back I had read a news item about an ancient idol of a Vaishnavite Brahmin being excavated in Turkey.

Guess those Hare-Krishna folks in Russia are right after all. Russia should convert to Hinduism/Vaishnavism and follow its true ancient path.:-)

KapiDhwaja said...

OT: Dept of Atomic Energy Chief, Anil Kakodkar has reservations on Indo-US Nuke deal.

Sage said...

Here's my take on 2007 based on many analysis I've read so far: Bond market rally and commodities crash in last two days are pointing towards economic slowdown. Housing is the wildcard and no one can predict how much would consumers cut down their spending. But overall, stocks of US big caps are still cheap historically. Technology stocks would overall do better because of Vista. Gold would provide good shelter for rest of the year. Indian stock market and US stock market are both due for correction in first half. Watch out for closing levels after first 5 trading days as so would go January and so would go rest of the year. Cash is not bad, cash is a position too. You may lockin CD rates before Fed starts cutting rates again.

DISCLAIMER: I am not responsible in anyway for your actions based on my 'opinion'.

-Sage