Friday, October 27, 2006

der Spiegel: America and the Dollar Illusion

oct 27th, 2006

the germans are saying the american emperor has no clothes any more. take that, you atlanticists!

there are also a couple of books by joseph stiglitz: "globalization's discontents" and "making globalization work". net net is that globalization has not worked out as the americans hoped: which was the old george kennan expectation that the US with 8% of the world's population would continue to enjoy 50% of the world's resources.

also, i'd like to point out that i dont think it's the fact of the hollowing out of american manufacturing that has caused this problem. it's that america has ceased to be less competitive in general, and the country is not set up to be less than dominant.

i listened to a stiglitz interview, and he said things to be effect that the Uruguay Round of the GATT was extremely unfair to developing nations; i guess this means that india has managed to circumvent this by being insular. that's a vote for being un-globalized. interesting person, stiglitz says "because of global warming, 1/3rd of bangladesh will be under water in 50 years."

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Girish K <jjjj>
Date: Oct 28, 2006 3:57 AM
Subject: America and the Dollar Illusion
To: rajeev

SPIEGEL ONLINE - October 25, 2006, 03:21 PM
URL:  http://www.spiegel.de/international/0,1518,440054,00.html
 
PLAYING WITH FIRE
America and the Dollar Illusion
 
By Gabor Steingart
 
The dollar is still the world's reserve currency, even though it hasn't deserved this status for a long time. The devaluation of the dollar can't be stopped -- it can only be deferred. The result could be a world economic crisis.
 
Editor's Note: The following essay has been excerpted from the German best-seller "World War for Wealth: The Global Grab for Power and Prosperity" by SPIEGEL editor Gabor Steingart. SPIEGEL ONLINE is publishing a series of excerpts from the book.
 
The two things investors crave most are high yields and high security. Since you can never have both at the same time, the moods of investors are like an emotional roller coaster. They shift constantly from fear to greed and back -- although major investors, like corporations and states, clearly prefer security over fancy returns. Their fear is stronger than their greed. They'll freely relinquish the really fat profits as long as the stability of their billions is guaranteed. They're afraid of political unrest, they loathe overly dramatic changes in currency value and the mere thought of creeping inflation sends them into a state of panic.
 
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2 comments:

Ghost Writer said...

Rajeev,
Stieglitz vs. Jagdish Bhagwati is the globalisation debate that is so hard to choose from. For instance, the Race to the Bottom theory of globalisation. The downward direction being set by the masters of M/s Yechury & Karat - but not that you would ever hear them advising China to implement Rural Employement Guarantee Schemes.

I also beleive that if we deregulate and privatise our own domestic economy , we can produce long term sustainable wealth. The middle class in India is big (last count 400 million) and growing. We need to inflate the domestic economy - focus on agriculture. Indian govt cannot beat Chinese strategists - however Indian entrepreneurs can flog Chinese State controlled business - if only you let them

As for Bangladesh being 1/3rd under water - I would not worry too much if I were in 'Sonar Bangaal (Is being Sonar Haraam?) ' - they will be on the ground once the Chinese divert the Brahmaputra!

chitrakut said...

also see

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/richricher/10932

"Robert Kiyosaki on the last days of the dollar"

Same stuff as in the Story Rajeev posted. Just different way of putting it from a different source.