Thursday, February 09, 2006

irrational exuberance on india

feb 9th

i am getting alarmed by all this hype. since the kaangress is in place, they are trying their darndest to bring back the 'nehruvian rate of growth' of 2-3% in GDP per annum. and the punters in the stockmarket are betting that the 'hindu rate of growth' of 8% per annum will continue. given the track record of messrs. chidambaram, money shanker iyer, arjun singh, et al, i have no doubt that 'nehruvian' will reign supreme. the indian stock market is in for a sharp correction.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=ajANPGD6_brs

10 comments:

indianpatriot said...

I believe the stock market may be behaving rationally that ulta pulta alliance may be on its last legs. What happenned in Bangalore is going to happen in New Delhi hopefully during the budget session.
Here is my rationality.
NDA total 188.
Samajwady party moving no confidence motion - 40.
BSP whose prospectus are better voting for the motion - 25.
Add 5 members of TRS unhappy with creation of Telangana.
It gets to 258 (Probably the stalinist regime suspended 10 parliament members without going thru proper proceedures even though I donot condone bribe taking).

If MDMK or PMK or best case NCP comes out of the govt. this govt. is history. Next month will be very interesting.

Pioneer is carrying out interesting articles how marxists keep winning elections in Bengal. I believe Tsumani that happenned to Lalu is waiting to happen to Marxists in Bengal.

Kaunteya said...

2003 when NDA was booted out our growth rate was hovering over 8% - 8.4% to be exact. In one year the "economist" PM brought it down to 7%. They say that a drop of even 1% growth rate is equivalent to the money that could have fed the entire poor population of India for free for a year.
Now this year there is already a talk of gdp rate falling to 6%. Stock Markets are in for a rude shock in coming weaks. Morever UPA is already on a sticky wicket as pointed out by indianpatriot. Smart investors would do good to come out of the high tide right away.
If KJ Rao can pull a Bihar on West Bengal then we had had it. The marxists will immediately withdraw support. Though it seems unlikely that Bengal will be freed of it's curse so soon.
All in all after one complete year of low down, ardent BJP supporters like me are feeling positive now.

iamfordemocracy said...

IndianPatriot, the story of revoking parliament membership of some MPs is shocking, indeed. It is amazing BJP did not fight it. They have yet another opportunity now. Pioneer has given the voting percentages in Somnath Chaterjee's constituency. Let government's favourite election analysis experts come up and claim that the numbers show normal election. Tell the world it wasn't and raise a cry for Chaterjee's resignation.

But BJP has been pretty incompetent in these matters. Will they take this or similar line?

DarkStorm said...

I really wonder how come the intelligent Bengalis vote the crooked marxists into power. Ok, leftists organize some bogus voting, some dead men on the voters list, but how much.. Can you get even 10,000 more votes like this.

I think its the mullahs and cheap beggar-deshis who are warping the state , rather than anything else.

DarkStorm said...

Rajeev, I just realized you made a mistake. Nehruvian rate of growth is not 2-3% , it is negative 3-0 %.

virat0 said...

Would the stock market be that rational to notice these ? Has there really been so much of transformation in last two years to justify the boom ? The boom certainly not because of last two years alone. So why would it crash ? Anyway, thanks for the caution statement.

Kalyani said...

DarkStorm,read this:-

"http://www.organiser.org/dynamic/modules.php?name=Content&pa=showpage&pid=117&page=27"

"Left on back foot
Fraud electoral rolls; can Red rig to power again? By Udayan Namboodiri"

lostinATSL said...

Rajeev,
Sometimes you hurt your credibility by your irrational hate, the very hate that you accuse others of having. The point is the economic performance of the Congress for 2005-06 is better than the BJP govt. Except 2003-04, the growth was 6% avg in the years NDA was in power,with growth in 2002-03 being 4%. So NDA's economic performance is nothing to brag about. This exuberance is not irrational, the growth in 2005-06 is 8.1% with manufacturing growing at more than 10%. There is no need to indulge in Congress bashing, even in areas where they are doing well.

indusAquarius said...

lostinATSL,

Low growth rate for NDA in it's initial years was because it was trying to recuperate the growth rate from the abysmal levels that it had plunged to during the past 50 odd years of Kangress (mis)rule.

Non Carborundum said...

IndusAquarius,
Moreover, whatever growth rate we have now is because of the momentum achieved by the BJP government. We would have been perhaps seeing a much higher growth rate if the BJP had retained power at the centre.