Friday, February 10, 2006

irrational exuberance on india

feb 9th

i am getting alarmed by all this hype. since the kaangress is in place, they are trying their darndest to bring back the 'nehruvian rate of growth' of 2-3% in GDP per annum. and the punters in the stockmarket are betting that the 'hindu rate of growth' of 8% per annum will continue. given the track record of messrs. chidambaram, money shanker iyer, arjun singh, et al, i have no doubt that 'nehruvian' will reign supreme. the indian stock market is in for a sharp correction.

http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000039&refer=columnist_pesek&sid=ajANPGD6_brs

4 comments:

kautilya said...

2003 when NDA was booted out our growth rate was hovering over 8% - 8.4% to be exact. In one year the "economist" PM brought it down to 7%. They say that a drop of even 1% growth rate is equivalent to the money that could have fed the entire poor population of India for free for a year.
Now this year there is already a talk of gdp rate falling to 6%. Stock Markets are in for a rude shock in coming weaks. Morever UPA is already on a sticky wicket as pointed out by indianpatriot. Smart investors would do good to come out of the high tide right away.
If KJ Rao can pull a Bihar on West Bengal then we had had it. The marxists will immediately withdraw support. Though it seems unlikely that Bengal will be freed of it's curse so soon.
All in all after one complete year of low down, ardent BJP supporters like me are feeling positive now.

iamfordemocracy said...

IndianPatriot, the story of revoking parliament membership of some MPs is shocking, indeed. It is amazing BJP did not fight it. They have yet another opportunity now. Pioneer has given the voting percentages in Somnath Chaterjee's constituency. Let government's favourite election analysis experts come up and claim that the numbers show normal election. Tell the world it wasn't and raise a cry for Chaterjee's resignation.

But BJP has been pretty incompetent in these matters. Will they take this or similar line?

indusAquarius said...

lostinATSL,

Low growth rate for NDA in it's initial years was because it was trying to recuperate the growth rate from the abysmal levels that it had plunged to during the past 50 odd years of Kangress (mis)rule.

non-carborundum said...

IndusAquarius,
Moreover, whatever growth rate we have now is because of the momentum achieved by the BJP government. We would have been perhaps seeing a much higher growth rate if the BJP had retained power at the centre.