Tuesday, March 28, 2006

CTBT, NPT, Indian acquiescence

mar 28th

kapidhwaja, san and others,

it looks like india has burnt its bridges and is on the way to a permanent nuclear second-class-hood. as to what we can do about it, i am not so sure. one possibility is to unilaterally abrogate the treaties at some future point, assuming someone will have the guts to do so. otherwise, it looks like we are basically screwed. the chinese and pakistanis must be celebrating. it's a mirror image of the way the americans seem to have imposed a deal on pakistan: "we'll control your nukes, but allow you to play all the terrorism games you want".

india gets a different deal: "we'll control your nukes, and we damn you with faint praise, nothing more; and oh, we'll send lots of evangelists to 'save' you, too. isn't that a good deal? see, sonia says it is, so it must be true."


abhiha marathe said...

My only hope is that either this will miraculously not go thru or the fast breeder technolog will make this unnecessary. I am pessimistic though. Bo y these Mir Chands have done us in again.

KapiDhwaja said...

Thanks for replying Rajeev. As you said, a person with guts can undo the deal in the future. That future has to be sooner than later. Because, the more the delay, the more the infrastrcture & reactors that depend on foreign fuel & tech, that come up. So undoing the deal within say the next 5 yrs would be good idea. The simplest way to kill the deal and kill 2 birds in one stroke would be to renew underground Nuke testing within the next 5 years. We could state Supreme National interests as the reason for testing. Lets see who would sanction us at that time besides the US. We would be hopefully economically stronger by then. In the meanwhile, lets pray the deal gets killed in the US Congress itself.

KapiDhwaja said...

The Taiwanese want to get real close to India. Lots of warning abt the 'peaceful' intentions of the Dragon.

Taiwan should embrace India: NSC official

A gem from the above article..
Chen also warned India of the dangers of dealing with the Chinese authorities, pointing out that China is very good at adopting the approach of "using warm water to cook frogs," meaning that the frog does not realize it is dying because it grows used to the warm temperature.

KapiDhwaja said...

A Great must-see movie about Southern Indian Temples, particluarly those built by Chola Emperor, Raja Raja Chola.

Lost Temples of India

KapiDhwaja said...

More about the Chola Empire, from Wikipedia
Chola Empire

san said...

Rajeev & Co,

Yes, I'm aware of the backdoor CTBT, but we may be able to get by with subcritical testing. Also it may not affect India's minimum credible deterrent posture for quite some time to come. It's better that we avoid a head-on nuclear arms race with China anyway, which may not be to our advantage.

If/when we decide to break this backdoor CTBT agreement, we will be strong enough by then that nobody will be able to do much about it.