Saturday, February 12, 2011

Consequences of Egypt's Revolution

One of the positive consequences of Egypt's democratic revolution is that Pak's rear-guard support will now be put under threat. Undemocratic Arab regimes like Saudi and Jordan - the same police states which have given Pak vital financial and logistical support in the past - will now be tottering and forced to focus on domestic policies to shore up popular support, rather than lounging around and playing geopolitical chess games abroad. If these regimes topple, then Pak would literally be left with only China to count upon.

As Egypt transitions to full democracy, Israel will similarly feel isolated and vulnerable, given that a post-Mubarak govt will most likely be less friendly/reliable as an ally. As it is, there's already a problem of smuggling and illegal cross-border transit from Egypt to the Gaza Strip. With a less cooperative Egyptian govt in power, then the Gaza situation could go from bad to worse, keeping heightened tensions between the two countries even if not provoking outright war, with Israel relying on its nukes as its ultimate guarantor.

One negative possibility is that an increasingly desperate Pak would seek opportunities in any renewed Middle East conflicts by exporting its nukes for badly-needed cash and support. This would then cause more problems for the US/West rather than just India only. The US/West should redouble their efforts to get Pak to sign FMCT, before suffering a rude shock. What if Egypt bought Pak's nukes, or even Saudis nervous about their increasingly vulnerable state? Certainly arch-enemy Iran is looking to seek advantage from the fall of their hated American lackey Mubarak.

Now that the Middle East is entering into increasing flux once again, India should keep vigilant and not be caught off-guard by new developments that would work for or against it.

4 comments:

joetote said...

We can all agree that Mubarak was a tyrant in the eyes of his people and deservedly so. And people here in the West cannot begin to imagine the hardships and travails of life in a country like Egypt or for that matter any Third World country, be it Egypt, Sudan or whatever. Too many of the citizens of the U.S., even if they were to look at it, are too busy whining about their own supposed problems to even consider what’s going on around the world. So be it. That’s what class warfare and the entitlement society have done to us.

However, as we look deeper into the Egyptian situation, we can see a rather disturbing pattern emerging. Listen to the talking heads of the MSM. Listen to the President and his out of touch administration, Hell, they can’t even get their stories straight. Hillary says one thing. Clapper says another. And the President openly welcomes the very element that can and will destroy Egypt and in turn put Israel and the West in dire straits. Of course I and many others will be called alarmists, racists or Anti-Muslim bigots for pointing this out, but it has to be said.

One only has to remember the Iran situation. Yes, the Shah as far as the people of Iran were concerned was a despot. As the people rallied there, the talking heads including our good buddy “lost in space Carter” went on and on about how the Ayatollah was in fact a moderate Muslim who would bring peace and open Democracy to the country. I distinctly remember the few brave souls who had done their homework and warned of the impending disaster that was coming. As it is now, they were branded as subversive or worse. The world sat back and we all know what has transpired since then.

As the Iran situation came to a head, the morons in the press and government here in the States put out the fallacy that the people of Iran, having grown use to the Freedoms they did have and their supposed love for all thing U.S. would in fact turn their back on radical Islamic fundamentalism and continue to embrace and expand the Western ideals to which they had grown accustomed to. Well, we all know how that worked out! Typical head in the sand gobbley goop from the West and presto!, an Islamic hell was born.

While one can hope the army there can keep the order and help transition to a free government, the chances of that happening in my view are slim at best. First, let’s take a look at the army. They have always been the power in Egypt since the overthrow of King Furuk. No secret there. Will they give up power?

As there is a vacuum in leadership right now can we assume the radical movements, those that any idiot can see are the best organized will in fact take their shots at power? You can bet your ass they will. The head of the Muslim Brotherhood is a known terrorist with a deep seated hatred for Israel. As we move forward, one has to assume they along with infiltrators from other radical Muslim states will do their best to install a Radical regime in Egypt.

It took about 30 days from the overthrow of the Shah, to the Ayatollah’s homecoming and then an almost instant plunge in radical Muslim horror that is now Iran. Is this what one wants for Egypt? And what about Israel? As we have a President who seems hell bent on hastening her destruction, will we come to the aid of Israel when the crap really hits the fan? If Egypt is taken over in the end by the radicals, will Israel survive? Hell, let’s not even go into the oil situation right now or the fact the Egypt controls the Suez Canal. At least Mubarak was honor bound to a treaty and kept too it. Can one even think for one moment that any radical faction will not immediately turn on Israel?

Arvind said...

yours is a wrong reading of the situation. egypt will *never* transition to a democracy. no islamic society ever does that. they will become more barbaric unless the army controls their permanent rage like in turkey.

secondly, saudi arabia and jordan are not going to be on their toes fearing a similar situation. muslims have it good in saudi arabia. they are all very happy that saudi arabia makes women wear potato sacks and imposes the shariah law.

finally, the outcome is good for pakistan. if anything, egypt will lean towards becoming a mullah state and support pakistan like saudi arabia supports it.

you are right about the situation in israel.

san said...

joe, I feel for your concerns about what Egypt might slide towards, if things go awry. But consider that even Bill Kristol, who is a pretty staunch supporter of Israel, believes that the unseating of Mubarak could relieve some of the domestic political pressures that have helped to feed Hamas and Muslim Brotherhood. Fortunately, AlQaeda are stuck in caves far away from Egypt, and cannot create a Khomeini wave in the country right now. I'll bet they too have been caught off guard by these events, which could sap strength from their organization. The military won't want to rule or rain on the parade, unless the politicians show themselves to be too inept.

Arvind, I don't think Egypt will do a repeat of Iran, because everyone sees Iran as a warning of what can happen if their revolution goes wrong. Sunni-majority Egypt doesn't draw inspiration from Iran's Ayatollahs anyway. Here we haven't seen the bearded old men leading the crowds, but taking a back seat. It shows that they've been superceded and obsoleted as an old guard opposition.

If anything, I would look at Turkey's Erdogan and his ruling Justice & Development Party as the closest thing to a Muslim Brotherhood ascension. He and his cronies went out of their way to opportunistically organize the Gaza flotilla.

It's probable that this democratic surge in Egypt will result in a fractured polity, with fundamentalists like Muslim Brotherhood occupying their own niche constituency. Hopefully this development won't see those political sections launching their own Gaza flotillas as populist stunts to expand political power. Hopefully, the Egyptian people will have the maturity to see the dangerous slippery slope that such stuntsmanship would lead them towards. Remember, Egypt does not have any oil riches like Iran, nor is its economy as successful as EU trading partner Turkey's. Therefore it cannot afford to squander its newfound opportunity to entrench a democratic system.

Arvind said...

it does not matter if they have beards or not. as rajeev has said, when muslims come to power, they shoot the communists but the reverse is not true. that is what will happen.

turkey is not a good example because it is not a democracy. every ten years, the army intervenes to kick out the forces of democracy as democracy in those countries means islamic mobs running wild.