Wednesday, December 09, 2009

stratfor is unduly optimistic about the US-jihadi war

dec 9th, 2009

i don't think the US is in that good a shape; nor are the jihadis in as bad a shape, as stratfor seems to believe. 

the former don't have the will and the patience; the latter do, that makes a difference. by stratfor's own count, if the taliban keep quiet for a while, they can lull the americans into (declaring victory and) leaving, at which point they can re-appear. they only have to be quiet for 18 months, in month 19, the us will start to withdraw.

what george foreman fails to take into account is that while the US thinks they're only battling jihadis, they are also battling nationalist afghans. this is much like when they were in vietnam, the US thought they were battling communists, but they were actually battling nationalists. 

nationalists feel more strongly about ejecting those they consider invaders than the US feels about an ideology, especially when the body bags keep coming. 

of course, he also doesn't take into account that the pakistanis are intent on thwarting american operations against their 'good taliban', ie. those whom they sponsor, like they used to sponsor gulbuddin hekmatyar (who got some 20% of all the billions in CIA funds injected in for fighting the soviets, but who is now fighting the americans).

No comments: