Wednesday, November 11, 2015

Cutting the Crap

Ok, so the BJP got thrashed in Delhi. Then they got pummeled in Bihar. All this, within some months of a massive mandate in the 2014 general elections.

Stuff and nonsense!

Elections in India, like most elections around the world, are won by Electioneering. The BJP and the NDA’s winning an unprecedented number of seats in 2014 stems primarily from having performers and doers in charge for a change. While there was a considerable swing of votes, in the final tally, BJP secured about 34% and Congress about 22% of the vote share.

Pre-poll “secular alliances” with the Congress were politically untenable and as a consequence, BJP and allies secured a massive victory from some votes swinging to their side and a necessarily divided opposition not being able to convert its share into seats.

Notably, BJP won all seven seats in Delhi in Lok Sabha 2014. The vote shares for BJP, AAP, and Congress were respectively 46%, 33%, and 15%. In the assembly elections, there was some swing in favour of AAP, with the respective vote shares turning to 32%, 54%, and 10% respectively. AAP took some vote share away from the Congress, and of course Delhi is infested with idiotic yuppies who can make mistakes once in a while. But, BJP’s vote share was not all that bad and belies the final result of 67-3 (AAP-BJP).

In the Bihar polls, BJP had no real chance from the outset. It took JD(U) and BJP’s combined might to oust Laloo after 15 years. Both JD(U) and BJP leaders had started making some noises about coming together after 2014 Lok Sabha, but it was leaders like Yashwant Sinha (now pontificating on poll mismanagement) who pushed the case for going it alone. The vote share for the BJP continues to be decent at 24%.


All this needs to be kept in mind before believing any of the so-called explanations for the poll results. Statements by “fringe elements” have no effect whatsoever on anything. And no, the supposed higher share of women voters for JD(U) has no statistical significance. The king of the BIMARU states has few avenues to keep its men employed. Many of Nitish’s and Lalu’s male supporters are busy earning their livings outside Bihar and so cannot even cast(e) their votes. The Gordian Knot coalition probably has greater ability to sucker more of the poor, illiterate and destitute into supporting them, but nonetheless, families vote as a bloc in Bihar.

There is no new learning from any of this. Support for the NDA’s nationalist development plank continues to grow, but winning elections requires (A) dividing the opposition, (B) increasing vote share, and (C) forming alliances, in that order. Right now, the pan-constituency filth that is called the secular alliance is re-lumping, and this trend will continue.

Rajeev’s brilliant exposition of a Deep State at work 24x7 is a tool for understanding all the commentary coming from within the media, so-called eminent persons, and even a few individuals who are supposed to be insiders. The whole thing is of course stage-managed and apart from the propaganda, might also include constructed false flag events like the UP beef murder appears to be.

That these destructively ingenious asses will keep braying and trying their dirty tricks is not the main problem. It is already a fact of life. Falling for some part of this propaganda is the bigger worry, especially when some “insiders” like Raghuram Rajan, Arun Shourie etc. join in. This is a Psychological Operation to get the BJP to change course from being winners who should focus on development and on the aforementioned A-B-C irrespective of short-term setbacks, to confused panderers in the mould of the delicate geniuses who goofed up the 2004 and 2009 elections apart from several state elections.

Arjuna must maintain steadfast focus to shoot the eye of the bird. Maybe the target has moved somewhat, but for archery to be effective, the noise of self-flagellation must be ignored.

1 comment:

san said...

The thing is here that we seem to suffer from Bubble Boy Syndrome - we are completely defenseless against the smallest attack - like a kid with no immune system. Let's give an honest self-appraisal of our side here - you don't even need a big media machine to completely trash the image of BJP/nationalists/conservatives - even the smallest attacks seem to prevail against us, because we have little or no capability in getting our side of the story out where/when it counts. People like us are relegated to blogging from the margins.

We need a FOX NEWS, we need a Drudge Report - we need more and better representation in the media. We need to be able to slug it out with the other side in a more vigorous toe-to-toe way. Otherwise, we always seem to be sitting ducks.

(As an aside, I was thinking about coding an app to crowd-source rebuttals/responses to slanderous articles, so that people from our side could more conveniently be made aware of the negative articles and more conveniently respond to them with rebuttals. It would probably use the Twitter-style principle of having individuals decide whether or not an article is offensive/slanderous and then having it earmarked for rebuttal purposes. Likewise, any subsequently created rebuttals would then be filtered / voted on before being published through other channels.)