Monday, October 05, 2015

Fwd: Another Godhra in the Making?

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: S G 

I am beginning to worry about India's national security in the wake of the Pakistani terrorist attacks on Gurdaspur and Udhampur as well as rumbles about cyber security, and the Taliban advance on Kunduz.
I hark back to NDA1 and the concentrated efforts then to defeat the government; if anything, the malign conjunction of forces looking to hamstring PM Narendra Modi is stronger, which suggests even worse things are being planned.
The first concern is Pakistani intent, as bolstered by Chinese and possibly Western advice. The second is the role of the compromised Opposition and fifth columnists.
As far as Pakistan is concerned, the first taste of the Modi Administration was salutary. They started off with their usual tactic of heavy unprovoked shelling across the International Border and the Line of Control. Much to their surprise, the return of fire was withering, and three times as heavy, and so they quickly ran up the white flag after casualties mounted.
Lesson 1: the Pakistani Army understands pain when applied directly to their bottoms.
Lesson 2: in conventional warfare, India has a big edge, hence Pakistan needs to revert to Plan B: terrorism.
Then we had the Yakub Memon hanging, which, Pakistanis have been told by their friends in the Indian mainstream media, has deeply divided society. Moreover,Memon was an innocent Muslim whom "they" (as in the provocative Indian Express headline) "killed". Pakistanis may calculate that this 'atrocity' will be a good excuse for them to attack India, with support from the usual quarters.
Thus acts of terrorism using 'sleeper' infiltrators whom they had already introduced into India. The goal is to goad India into escalation and retaliation. But as many commentators have pointed out, India's response does not have to be binary: appeasement (Manmohan style) or war (Modi's presumed style).
There are a few more nuanced responses: economic, diplomatic, cultural, and special operations. (The latest comment by the MEA is salutary: they unambiguously pointed out that Pakistan suffers from terrorism only because it is the fount of terrorism.)
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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

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