Tuesday, November 23, 2010

stratfor: Is North Korea Moving Another 'Red Line'?

nov 23rd, 2010

this is china's way of using its other proxy (other than pak) to send a message. 

so obama goes to south korea, makes mildly threatening noises about containing china. 

north koreans reveal advanced nuclear capability.

north koreans attack south korea.

summary: this is the chinese way of saying, "we will break your knees".

but wait, i thought it was obama who was from chicago, in the good old al capone tradition?

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: S. Kalyanaraman

Is North Korea Moving Another 'Red Line'?

November 23, 2010 | 1755 GMT

Summary

North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery fire near their disputed border in the Yellow Sea/West Sea on Nov. 23. The incident raises several questions, not the least of which is whether Pyongyang is attempting to move the real "red line" for conventional weapons engagements, just as it has managed to move the limit of "acceptable" behavior regarding its nuclear program.

Analysis

http://www.stratfor.com/mmf/176526/two_column Smoke rising from South Korea's Yeonpyeongdo Island near the border with North Korea on Nov. 23


Read more: Is North Korea Moving Another 'Red Line'? | STRATFOR 

Conflict on the Korean Peninsula

North Korea and South Korea exchanged artillery fire near the Northern Limit Line (NLL), their disputed western border in the Yellow Sea/West Sea on Nov. 23. The incident damaged as many as 100 homes and thus far has killed two South Korean soldiers with several others, including some civilians, wounded. The South Korean government convened an emergency Cabinet meeting soon after the incident and called for the prevention of escalation. It later warned of "stern retaliation" if North Korea launches additional attacks. Pyongyang responded by threatening to launch additional strikes, and accused South Korea and the United States of planning to invade North Korea, in reference to the joint Hoguk military exercises currently under way in different locations across South Korea.


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5 comments:

san said...

Pak and North Korea are China's twin fists. China will never abandon either of them, no matter how badly they behave.

South Koreans may be stuck as prisoners of US appeasement policies, but India doesn't have to be.

san said...

Here's the phlegmatic Fareed Zakaria showing up on cue to voice his support for China's role in creating this mess:

http://www.cnn.com/2010/OPINION/11/24/zakaria.china.korea/index.html

smriti said...

This must be the Chinese idea of having some fun! - rocking the S.Korean boat every now and again (by proxy, of course).

IMHO, China will not allow the reunification of the Korean peninsula - for whatever reasons or till how ever long it wants and the U.S can do very little about it.

The U.S will stick to its posturing as regards S-Korea. It will want to maintain the status- quo.

Stratfor comes close to explaining the deadlock - "It seems that South Korea is afraid of either real power or real weakness in the North, but we do not know which."

Perhaps, S.Korea is aware of the military might of China in its own backyard and it couldn't trust the U.S to fully back them against the Chinese.

(Ah, that old numskull Zakaria ! Doesn't he get his fill of mouthing idiotic statements on CNN, regarding India. He has to spout his two pence worth even here - notwithstanding his blatant idiocy !)

nizhal yoddha said...

i agree, here's an excerpt from something i just wrote:


Take the recent North Korean artillery barrage against a South Korean island. This is not an isolated incident, nor is China an innocent bystander as Zbigniew Brzezinski (“America and China’s First Test”, Financial Times, Nov 23) claims. Cold Warriors are still fighting the last war in Europe against the Soviets: they labor under the misconception that China is benign.

On the contrary, chances are that North Korean belligerence is an indirect Chinese response to US President Obama’s recent Asia swing, wherein he appeared to be building a coalition – India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea – to thwart China’s soaring ambitions.

smriti said...

Thanks for the excerpt. Surely, N.Korean aggressiveness comes from Chinese support, as does Nepal', Pakistan' and Sri Lanka' incresingly flippant attitude towards India in the recent past.

Is the U.S really keen to constrict China on its own turf remains to be seen, as China has repeatedly harped on its strategic depth in Asia, Africa and else where. The possibility of having to face another geographical liability by involving in the complex structures of Asian goings on, weighs heavily against any action that the U.S might want to contemplate regarding China' menacing attitude.

China still has heavy bargaining chips with Islamic countries in the East Asian neighborhood and the U.S will wary of getting in to that quagmire again.

IMHO, how far will the recent Obama visit to the region go in bringing to fruition the dream of curtailing the Chinese menace remains to be seen.