Wednesday, July 13, 2016

hague tribunal shows china is a rogue nation and a bully, my firstpost piece

Hague Tribunal ruling shows China as a bully that refuses to follow international standards

Indians are transfixed by the violence in Jammu and Kashmir; there is a fair chance that it is part of the ISI's pincer movement — cause trouble for India in J&K on the west, in Bangladesh on the east, and with its group of fifth columnists everywhere, especially in the media. The Modi Special, perhaps. There may be some urgency, because Pakistan's 'all-weather friend' and sponsor China is annoyed that India is growing at China-like rates. So they probably got the ISI to ratchet up the violence on command.

China has some reason to be unhappy, as things are not all going swimmingly in its favour. There's much that is gratifying and positive, though: first, the near collapse of Atlanticism as seen in Brexit suggests that the Anglo-American and Euro-American alliances are fraying.

Second, the continued helplessness of the Americans in the face of violence in the Middle East, as well as even back in their home territory (eg. Orlando) suggests to China that the American Century is well and truly over. Third, the One Belt, One Road and other Chinese initiatives are progressing even as the American-dominated Bretton Woods regime, such as the IMF and World Bank are regressing.

Representational image. AP.

South China Sea. AP.

The things that should be worrying China are three-fold: first, the problems of the domestic debt and the slowing of the economy; second, the increasing alarm among its neighbors, especially in the South China Sea that shows the smokescreen of 'peaceful rise' is not getting much traction; and third, the increasing likelihood of military alliances specifically targeting China and seeking to contain it.

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sent from samsung galaxy note3 neo, so please excuse brevity

1 comment:

san said...

China may have cleverly hedged with a backdoor strategy. Rumors are that the election campaign of Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte was originally funded and backed by certain deep pocketed business houses in China. Notice that in the wake of this ruling, Duterte's govt is quietly telling China it wants to meet for negotiations. So China has employed multiple strategies in parallel to get what it wants. Very importantly, Vietnam may now be encouraged to bring their own claim to the Hague. It's imperative that India support Vietnam militarily by providing weapons, because that's our key to keeping China occupied in the South China Sea, and away from the Indian Ocean.