Saturday, November 08, 2008

Hard Landing In China? - Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini has been spot-on about this crisis for more than two years, so I am glad he thinks the Hans are going down the tube. It will have another good unintended consequence - slowing of our iron ore "exports" to China.
Hard Landing In China? - Forbes.com


India has a shot at getting a leg-up on the Hans in the short-term - we are not as tied to the US & Europe for exports as China is. Most of our exports e.g. IT and ITES are investments we can easily transfer productively to the domestic market. the hans cannot make citizens buy lead-painted toys and melamine milk all of a sudden, but we can create a New Deal type of project to digitise government. NRI's are a great resource of dollars that can be used to provide capital and liquidity - and our banks do not have as many NPA's ......

alas that brigand Chidambaram will never find the cojones to tell Madam that finance policy will not be dictated by her (and Ratzy's) interests in p-notes.

No - instead we will have him prancing around press conferences and seminars, with his laptop and false gravitas, which call to mind this satirical poke by John Wilmot

Thus, Statesman-like, I’ll saucily impose,
And, safe from Danger, valiantly advise;
Sheltered in Impotence, urge you to Blows,
And, being good for nothing else, be Wise.

* The Maim'd Debauchee, ll. 41–44

*sigh!

2 comments:

tat_tvam_asi said...

Wasn't Arun Shourie insisting that we join the rat race with China, that we should copy their policies?

san said...

True enough, and I'd be happier if India had more of a manufacturing base to support a supply-side economy. The only thing I'll laugh at the Chinese over in this case, is that their political system is so brittle that a severe economic downturn could bring it crumbling down.