Sunday, August 30, 2015

Fwd: India's role in Asia may not fit 'Indo-Pacific' agenda

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Capt
Hugh White
Aug 30 2015 at 3:26 PM
It's assumed that India will play a large and growing role as a great power in a wider "Indo-Pacific" strategic system - but it's equally as likely that their power will be limited.

Many observers tend to assume that India will play a large and growing part as a great power in a wider "Indo-Pacific" strategic system, that it will use its growing power to balance and limit China's regional weight. But some caution is called for – although this outcome is possible, it is far from inevitable.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has encouraged leaders in Washington, Tokyo and Canberra to believe that he shares and wants to help promote their vision of Asia's strategic trajectory. But it is equally probable that India will play little role in the power politics of East Asia. And if it does, it will pursue Indian interests, which may differ substantially from America's, Japan's or Australia's.


There is little doubt that India will acquire the strategic weight to function as a great power in an Indo-Pacific strategic system alongside China, America and Japan. Demographics alone assures its place among the world's big three economies. India will also remain the pre-eminent great power in the sub-continental strategic system of which it is the natural centre. But will it function as a great power in a broader strategic system that also encompasses East Asia?


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