Thursday, July 31, 2025

Pakistan, US seal trade deal

"Massive" Oil Partnership With Pak: The US struck a trade deal with Pakistan, hours after announcing 25% tariffs on imports from India.

Fourth-largest oil and gas reserves in the world: This could be a potential game-changer in the region’s energy flows... Fictitious reserves?

"India can take its dead economy down for all I care"

China spared, India sanctioned: 6 Indian Companies Sanctioned By US Over Iran Petroleum Purchases

Why Trump doesn't want Google, Microsoft to hire Indians: He wants a new "spirit of patriotism and national loyalty".

From the archives: 'Abki Baar, Trump Sarkar': PM Modi gives tacit support for Trump's re-election in 2020

Wednesday, July 30, 2025

The Vow and the Sorrow | Mahabharat By Short Sparks | Episode 3

Tuesday, July 29, 2025

China & Iran (and What About Afghanistan? What if...)

Iran has become an Achilles' heel for China (ie. a weak spot, as a vulnerable key oil supplier)

Suppose China were to build a pipeline thru northern Afghanistan, and pay oil transit fees to the Taliban, as part of BRI. This could replace the lousy non-performing Pak/CPEC portion of BRI.

It could be a trifecta for them, because Iran could get Chinese weapons in exchange for Iranian oil, and Afghanistan could get money to rebuild itself.

I don't think Pak would dare disrupt the Afghan pipeline and make a deep enemy out of China. US would approach Pak to replicate Afghan jihad again (this time against China instead of against Moscow), but I don't think Pak could dare risk making a deep enemy out of China (if Pak did that, then all the better for us)

What would be the main benefit for India? We could collude with a rising Afghanistan to liberate Pakhtun & also Baloch areas from the decaying Pakistan. At some point, even USA would abandon a decaying Pak, and decide it's better to engage with liberated components like independent Balochistan (Pakhtun areas of Pak would be absorbed by Afghanistan, naturally)

Quick notes: Hiring Indians | Baloch and Israel...

'Put America First': Trump's big warning to tech firms against hiring Indians.. Doesn't want Google, Microsoft to hire Indians.
US driving India into China's lap? Trump's renewed interest in Pakistan has India recalibrating China ties.
China proving to be tough: Trump’s U-turn on Nvidia spurs talk of grand bargain with China. . India takes note.
Trump eases China chip restrictions: Trump caving on Nvidia H20 export curbs may disrupt his bigger trade war. . . Dissenters warn H20 reversal is a dangerous mis-step.
Reality check for India: Far from being supportive, the US under Trump has ended up re-hyphenating Pakistan with India. The two superpowers, the US and China, seem to have an unstated common interest in keeping India down a notch.

Indians' propensity to be duped: How Jane Street Made $4.3 Billion in India—Then Got Banned!

Aljazeera: "Israel is trying to hijack the Baloch struggle"

Balochistan Studies Project: Pakistan fears MEMRI's support for a free Balochistan

Balochistan Studies Project: Chinese Communist Party fears MEMRI's support for a free Balochistan

Arjun Nimmala: First-gen Indian-American MLB first-round pick

MP Tejasvi Surya Speaks: Bengaluru’s Tunnel Road: A Roadblock, Not a Relief.

Sunday, July 27, 2025

Ep.172: India and the Abhimanyu syndrome: all alone

https://rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/p/ep-172-india-and-the-abhimanyu-syndrome

AI-generated podcast in this substack. enjoy!

Saturday, July 26, 2025

USA & China in Our Yard - Why Not Us & China in USA's?

The following talk was hosted by Dr Tara Karth (former National Security Council Secretariat) and Lt Gen Dushyant Singh (Director General CLAWS, PVSM, AVSM, Ret'd)

India-China Relations: Current Dynamics Unpacked

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uH0_LCAMn1Q?t=4431

@ 1:13:51 in the above video, I asked the following question:

------

While being rivals, US & China are both able to support Pakistan. In which places can India & China cooperate, even beyond their immediate shared neighborhood? South America or Pacific Islands maybe?

------

The point of my question is that we're always taking it on the chin from these guys right in our own yard. Why can't we take our response beyond our yard and into someone else's yard? (You know whose yard I'm talking about)

Ideally, I'd be thinking of someplace beyond the 2nd island chain used to block China from entering the Pacific, perhaps closer to Hawaii. There are a whole lot of islands in that part of the Pacific.

Another place might be in South America, in its northern-most parts. We have closer ties to Guyana & Trinidad, the first of which is under serious threat from Venezuela. We can provide armaments to Guyana to help protect them, while China can provide armaments to Venezuela's belligerent govt. Just like the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict, where we arm Armenia and Israel arms Azerbaijan, we can have the same thing in South America where we arm Guyana, and China arms Venezuela's Maduro govt in response. As a result, Venezuela becomes China's client state, perhaps even giving them an airbase in America's backyard. (We can see how the Israelis similarly benefited from using Azerbaijan's territory for basing strike aircraft.)

Any sort of cooperation or even managed competition with China is fraught with risk, because the Chinese can make anything go awry. But our exposure level is reduced the farther away the site of cooperation/competition is from our own home turf. America doesn't mind helping the same Pakistan that China helps, whether it's meant as cooperation or as tug-of-war. They don't mind, because it's India's security getting screwed by this, and not their own.

Likewise, we need to take the same attitude towards Uncle Sam, since that's the attitude he takes towards us.

Thai-Cambodian Clash Over Hindu Temple is Really a Superpower Clash (China vs USA)

Thai PM Shinawatra is backed by China, while the Thai ruling military establishment are US-sponsored, exerting power thru judiciary & its constitutional court, just like Pak military now does thru 26th amendment. Because the pro-military forces have now basically ousted the pro-Chinese Thai PM Shinawatra over phone call (similar to how Pak military ousted Imran Khan), this is then provoking China into triggering its puppet regime in Cambodia nextdoor to escalate military pressure on Thai border (remember that Cambodian PM Hun Sen is himself a former Khmer Rouge cadre now wearing a suit). This is why the Thai-Cambodian military clashes are now happening. China is angry that its designs inside Thailand are being thwarted, and is now using Cambodia lackey to retaliate. On the one side of the conflict is USA (via Thai military) and on the other side of the conflict is China (via Cambodian puppet).

Thailand is equipped with American F-16s, and these have apparently been involved in the border clash. Does Cambodia have J-10C or anything comparable to F-16?

We Indians need to consider effect on our neighborhood. 𝚆̶𝚎̶ "Unknown forces" did that drone raid on ULFA to send both China & USA a message. We all know that USA would happily sucker-punch us and cozy up to ULFA just to gain some new inroad/foothold against China, to put its Yunnan province under threat. Myanmar is the main route to go after China's vulnerable Yunnan flank, and we are located on one side of Myanmar while Thailand is located on the other side of it.

USA's game in subverting India with Lokpal didn't work, and their agent Kejriwal is now in jail. But USA does have a nice foothold in Thailand, where its Thai military allies rule thru "constitutional court" (a model that Pak military are now adopting thru 26th amendment). China has been trying to loosen the tenuous hold of USA and its Thai military flunkies over Thailand, backing the Shinawatra clan and their populist politics. Thai military are then warily eyeing the pro-China forces led by the Shinawatras, and looking for any excuse to pounce on them (eg. this latest phone call).

Should we support China or support USA?

A Pox On Both Their Houses, say I.

America sees our northeast as a vulnerable spot, and would gladly fuck us over in a second, in order to gain a useful flank against China's Yunnan (just like Adlai Stevenson shafted us in J&K.) America has done the coup in Dhaka to increase India's vulnerability. China is now gleefully reaping the fruits of America's coup, while we suffer the consequences. I personally think that a Thailand where the military is weakened by military conflict would be in both China's interest as well as India's interest. The only difference between China and India on this would be the extent to which Thai military should be weakened. China would like Thai military to be completely overthrown, whereas we would probably benefit most from seeing them only weakened, because then this gives us more leverage with both USA & China, to dissuade either from any misadventures near our northeastern borders.

Thursday, July 24, 2025

Ep. 171: spin doctoring and narrative warfare, the western way

https://open.substack.com/pub/rajeevsrinivasan/p/ep-171-how-to-spin-doctor-and-peddle?r=66qfh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Wednesday, July 23, 2025

How Russia Plans to Rule Eurasia by River

Seems more practical than China's water-coercion game

@ 6:05 they mention a drone transport hub - we should consider trying something like this, especially to our underserved outermost border regions, whether in Himalayas or Northeast.

Tuesday, July 22, 2025

Ep. 170: mamdani's color revolution will not end well

https://open.substack.com/pub/rajeevsrinivasan/p/ep-170-zohran-mamdanis-color-revolution?r=66qfh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Monday, July 21, 2025

Quick notes: Sinophile | Liveable cities...

NITI Aayog loaded with Sinophiles: India's top think tank recommends easing investment rules for Chinese firms... My enemy is my savior
Trump, the Sinophile: As Trump courts a more assertive Beijing, China hawks are losing out in a a dramatic reversal.

In recent years, one of China's biggest requests of US officials has been that the US relax its strict controls on advanced AI chips, measures that were put in place to slow Beijing's technological and military gains. Last week, the Trump administration did just that, as it allowed Nvidia to sell its H20 chip to China... China won by calling Trump’s ‘bluff’
Microsoft, the Sinophile: Microsoft using engineers in China to help maintain cloud computing systems for U.S. Department of Defense.

What NITI Aayog doesn't want you to know: How China has been blocking India's UNSC actions since the 2000s

From Evergrande to BYD: Is China’s EV dream crashing? . . . Don't you worry, NITI Aayog is there to rescue China.

How can we make India's cities more liveable? Zoho's Sridhar Vembu has a suggestion . . let's focus less on GDP and more on quality of living.

I want to add that Singapore, one of the most advanced economies in the world and one of the most livable cities, relies extensively on public transport. Singapore also limits the number of private cars through the mechanism of open market trading of Certificate of Entitlement… https://t.co/ob7WjOiybJ
— Sridhar Vembu (@svembu) July 15, 2025

How Indian Cities Failed Public Transport: Prioritize people over cars.

China-Pak Collusion After Op Sindoor; US-India Strategic Ties in Doubt

I liked this analysis and commentary by Gen P R Shankar and Gen Rajiv Narayanan

The drone strike on ULFA was a good message to both China and USA

US wants to get into Myanmar - but India can tell them the same thing Zia-ul-Haq told them on Afghanistan: "You can't do it without me" (followed quickly by rejecting their early offers as "Peanuts.")

Friday, July 18, 2025

Decoding Turkey’s Grand Strategy: Erdogan’s Ambitions, Defence Deals in India's Neighbourhood

Good interview by Swasti Rao shedding light on Turkey's behaviour toward India:

So Erdogan doesn't perceive any cost from siding with India's adversaries, since Turkey doesn't have significant economic ties with India.

Sunday, July 13, 2025

Quick Notes: Jane Street | Hydrofoil ferry...

Jane Street's cash machine came to an abrupt halt: Foreign funds and proprietary traders using algorithms made $7 billion in the 12 months to March 2024 alone. That bonanza may be coming to an end.
Manipulating Indian derivatives markets: How US-based Jane Street siphoned Rs 36,000 cr from Indian markets.
Indian casino is a train-wreck: Indian retail investor losses on derivative trades widened in 2024-25 by 41% to 1.06 trillion rupees. India is the world's largest derivatives market, accounting for nearly 60% of the equity derivatives traded globally in April.

Prada on backfoot: High Fashion's habit of 'borrowing' from India isn't new. Prada's Kolhapuri chappals are just the latest

Prada is at Centre of GI tag violations for its flat leather sandals that bear a striking resemblance to traditional Kolhapuri chappals.

Indian shops sell it for ₹1,000 and Prada is selling it for ₹1 lakh.

Indian artisans need good marketing or else this theft will continue. pic.twitter.com/F3rkAa75Zr
— News Arena India (@NewsArenaIndia) June 28, 2025

How America's Debt Spiral Could Spark The Next Crisis: America's debt problem is no longer linear; it is exponential.

Blue superhighway: Could the Electric Hydrofoil Ferry change the way we commute? Fast, sustainable mode of transit

Unicorn: India's Rapido is outpacing global giants like Uber and Ola in user growth, while also achieving profitability . . . A ride-hailing unicorn is gaining users faster than Uber, disrupting the San Francisco titan’s effort to conquer a key growth market

AI's energy problem: Google’s carbon emissions went up again as its AI push continues

Distress in Hi-tech jobs: Salesforce CEO Claims Half of the company’s work is now done by AI

The ‘Trump Pump’: How crypto lobbying won over a President. For years, cryptocurrency companies had endured a sweeping crackdown in Washington — a cascade of lawsuits, regulatory attacks and prosecutions that threatened the industry’s survival. Mr. Trump wasn’t an obvious sympathizer. He had once dismissed Bitcoin as a “scam.”
One Way to Win Trump Over: Nominate Him for the Nobel Prize

Saturday, July 12, 2025

massive PR to save boeing's ass in the AI 171 crash

this is the actual preliminary report. it does not say anything like what the western media is saying, which is all intended to shield Boeing and GE.

reminds me of pfizer's contract terms for COVID vaccine: they had no indemnity. if anything happened, it's the customer's problem, not pfizer's. like if you died. they offer no warranty. same thing here. no warranty that the darn plane is airworthy.

I predicted this in my june 29 article https://rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/p/ep-167-despite-air-crashes-how-can

so here's the spin doctoring on July 12th. despite the small print (just below), see the headlines (below that).

lies, damned lies, and propaganda. western media wants to make it look like pilot error, when in fact turning on/off the fuel gauges is pretty damn difficult and cannot be done accidentally.

clean chit to beleaguered boeing and general electric.

however, here's the smoking gun: the 2018 advisory on incorrectly designed fuel switches. h/t @shivaroor on x.com

my suspicion: mechanical or software error, or sabotage. below is a deep dive.

https://igel-zc1.campaign-view.in/ua/viewinbrowser?od=3zeb9b282d08a2a9174f45c9dfb5d0a6907704975b288eb982fd9e081de6f62ef8&rd=116479c9f5fc0f33&sd=116479c9f5fbfaec&n=11699e4be357c10&mrd=116479c9f5fbfada&m=1

Friday, July 11, 2025

Ep. 169: Has the Deep State 'turned' Trump?

now no longer firewalled

---------- Forwarded message ---------
From: Prof. Rajeev Srinivasan from Shadow Warrior
Date: Fri, Jul 11, 2025 at 5:25 PM
Subject: Ep. 169: Has the Deep State 'turned' Trump?
To:

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Shadow Warrior by Rajeev Srin…

Ep. 169: Has the Deep State '…

Ep. 169: Has the Deep State 'turned' Trump?

Almost all the initiatives Trump came up with that could have potentially damaged the Deep State are now being rolled back.

Prof. Rajeev Srinivasan

Jul 11

∙

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There were two good reasons to support Donald Trump for President of the US: one, that he did not go to war in his first term, and two, that he was the very antithesis of the Deep State-controlled former President Biden.

Alas, just less than six months into his re-incarnation as the 47th President, there is reason to wonder if the first claim is no longe…

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Comment

Restack

mamdani senior holds forth on suicide bombers

thought control? or preventing hate speech?

Wednesday, July 09, 2025

can India catch up in innovation?

https://youtu.be/n_Yu21eyEhY?si=d4dle9CvD2s92n6K

Tucker Carlson & Saagar Enjeti: Dangerous Depths Of Deep State

WTF are US Deep State up to? Absolute insanity and depravity

No wonder they delayed the GE engines and regime-changed Bangla. Their power apparatus are deeply committed to some kind of kill-chain, and we naively got in their way.

Modi should have never gone to Kyiv & Moscow for his visit. What the hell was he thinking - what did he accomplish, other than to put us more firmly in Washington's cross-hairs? And none of our media or babus questioned it, because they're all just a bunch of idiotic Yes-men.

Monday, July 07, 2025

Ep. 168: fallout from iran-israel war. it ain't over (till the fat lady sings)

https://open.substack.com/pub/rajeevsrinivasan/p/ep-168-the-mess-in-west-asia-geopolitics?r=66qfh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Friday, July 04, 2025

Are we being hoodwinked?

Is this the deal? India, Vietnam and China all get to pay the same 20%.

President Trump announced that a trade agreement with China has been signed and claimed the deal would begin to “open up” China. The strange part? We haven’t heard any details—except that it supposedly addresses rare earth disputes. On the Chinese side, it’s total radio silence.… pic.twitter.com/6xvfYXVqKC
— Lei's Real Talk (@LeisRealTalk) July 3, 2025

What's the point of Quad if Trump equates India-Pakistan? If the only superpower, which calls India an ally, sees the region through an India-Pakistan prism, it is unacceptable. Rather than endorse India's sphere of influence, this undermines it.

Trump Baffles With Sudden U-Turn on China Buying Iranian Oil: President Trump appeared to undermine years of US sanctions on Iran, giving its biggest customer China the green light to carry on buying its oil. . . . . India restricted from buying Iranian oil while China is free?

Elon: America is going bankrupt quickly, but everyone is whistling past the graveyard.

Old pal of Elon Musk has ominous warning for Trump: “I’ve had my share of blowouts with Elon over the years,” neuroscientist Philip Low told Politico. “Knowing Elon the way I know him, I do think he’s going to do everything to damage the president.”

NEW: Poll finds that 40% of voters say they are likely to support Elon Musk's "America Party" if he decides to launch it, according to Quantus Insights.

The poll comes as Musk has threatened to launch his own political party over recent disagreements with the Republican Party.… pic.twitter.com/bsdraGwpGq
— Collin Rugg (@CollinRugg) July 2, 2025

India caught in the middle: Rare earth curbs to hit EV, RE, defence sectors

Time for Swadeshi platforms: Congressional staff members were informed that WhatsApp can no longer be used on their government-issued smartphones or other devices.

Thursday, July 03, 2025

Hindu genocide in bangladesh

and what is India doing about it?

https://www.firstpost.com/opinion/from-liberation-to-erasure-bangladeshs-silent-genocide-of-hindus-13902634.html

so quad doesn't think Kashmir belongs to India?

why did India sign this joint statement then? fine friends, this quad. #abhimanyuSyndrome

Ep 167: how can India improve its civilian and military aircraft skills?

https://rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/p/ep-167-despite-air-crashes-how-can

Wednesday, July 02, 2025

Forensic Accountant Uncovers Strange Irregularities in Mamdani Money Trail

How AIPAC Works

A critical view:

Tuesday, July 01, 2025

Grow Jihadi Snakes, Get Bitten. Grow Marxist Snakes, Get Bitten Again.

Irony is real. After Ugandan Indians were dispossessed of their property and kicked out of Uganda by dictator Idi Amin, America took in Mamdani's father as a refugee. Now the next generation of Mamdani seeks to again wield the power of the state for wealth redistribution, again in the pursuit of political power.

This now has US Democratic Party establishment politicians in a panic, as their political platform now careens left-ward, seemingly out of their control. India's Congress Party politicians reacted with amusement when agent Kejriwal showed up touting his 'anti-corruption' politics while promising freebies. But the people of Delhi had to bear the brunt of his crooked nutty antics - as did later the people of Punjab, due to Sonia Gandhi's connivance in ousting Amarinder Singh.

Kejriwal was an obvious foreign agent, having no domestic backing or prior political history. The fact that multiple 'colour revolutions' were simultaneously being forced on the Middle East thru 'Arab Spring' was no mere coincidence of timing. Rahul Gandhi now suddenly screeching non-stop about 90% reservations has also long ago sold out to foreign interests. As another fellow spoiled rich kid, it's not clear whether Mamdani is receiving any foreign backing, but the US political establishment may see fit to look into it. Because if he's not a foreign agent already, I'm sure various foreign govts might find it very useful to support him. He may be politically on the Left, but Beijing, Moscow, and also Tehran may see him as the right man at the right time for their needs.

At any rate, the Americans can now rue the fact that having grown snakes in somebody else's yard, they can now experience the consequences of those snakes showing up to bite them in their own homes. NYC is just the beginning - although it seems to always get struck first, just as it was on 9/11.