Wednesday, October 09, 2013

kaplan at stratfor on modi vs. rahul

thanks to san for this forward. good stuff. i have a book by kaplan 'monsoon', on the importance of the indian ocean. haven't read it yet, but it should be good stuff.

despite the proforma 'hitler' and '2000 muslims killed', fairly sensible account. (let us remember though that wikileaks has suggested strongly that stratfor, whom kaplan now works for, is a CIA front).

in particular, i like this bit:

This will be the first general election in a decade to take place at a time of slower economic growth. It will be the first election since nearby Sri Lanka has ended its civil war and has been demonstrably leaning toward China, thereby threatening the balance of power in South Asia. Meanwhile, American troops will be drawing down in large numbers in Afghanistan — a place that throughout history has functionally been part of the Subcontinent. A rapprochement may loom between Iran and the United StatesBangladesh on India's northeastern border is in quasi-chaos, as is Nepal on India's northern frontier. Myanmar, also bordering India in the east, may be slowly disintegrating into religious and ethnic regions. China is in the early stages of a tumultuous economic and social transition. Japan is more nationalistic than in decades and is poised to become a natural ally of India balancing against China. Finally, there is Pakistan, India's fundamental nemesis, which, though in the hands of a relatively capable and experienced prime minister, is institutionally and strategically ever more fragile. Indeed, the Greater Subcontinent is in flux, and in this turbulent political landscape, India's new prime minister in 2014 will have increasingly less room for miscalculations. Both innovation and maturity will be required.

sent from samsung galaxy note, so please excuse brevity

1 comment:

san said...

India would be a major beneficiary if there was a US rapprochement with Iran. Not only would that make it easier for India to have dealings with Iran without running afoul of US sanctions, but it might also lessen US dependency on Pakistan, along with Pak Army's strategic value.