kristof on india-china

jan 19th

this is premium content, so i am only giving you excerpts.

i think kristof is just mouthing conventional wisdom, but there is that niggling matter of strategic intent. we have the strategic intent to be (drum roll) second-best!!!!  i wrote in a column a while ago that the biggest crime of j nehru was to reduce india's aspirations: he didnt want india to be a super power, he just wanted it to be an also-ran. that is the strategic intent of the nehruvian stalinists, and we are unerringly proving ourselves to be also-rans.

i also have another contention: that AIDS is not threatening india's productivity as much as falling fertility is threatening europe's or japan's or china's. i think, heartlessly, that AIDS is just another pandemic like we always had -- it was TB a hundred years ago, then it was something else. nature/god figures out ways to keep our numbers down.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: B

Many thanks, Arnold, for sending me the Kristof piece, which I think is
brilliant. He presents a compelling analysis of the comparative advantages
and disadvantages, and why, at the end of the day, he is willing to put his
money on China, not India. China's real advantage over India is leadership
and vision. Best, B


January 17, 2006
Op-Ed Columnist
They're Rounding the First Turn! And the Favorite Is . . .
By NICHOLAS D. KRISTOF
CALCUTTA

The great race of the 21st century is under way between China and India to
see which will be the leading power in the world in the year 2100.

President Bush's trip to India next month is important, for we in America
must brace ourselves to see not only China looming in our rear-view mirror,
but eventually India as well. India was the world's great disappointment of
the 20th century, but now it's moving jerkily forward with economic reforms,
reminding me of China around 1990.

One of India's (and China's) greatest strengths is its hunger for education.

... deleted

I visited the ramshackle Hasi Khusi Kindergarten and Primary School in a
poor area of Calcutta, where most of the pupils' parents are illiterate
street vendors, rickshaw drivers or laborers. Out of an average family
income of $23 a month, the parents pay a one-time fee of $13 for
registration and then $2.30 a month.

... deleted

With India's ever-deepening pool of English speakers, its outsourcing boom
will continue. Your next employment contract may be prepared by an Indian
law firm, your mutual fund advised by Indian analysts - and if you need
elective surgery, you may get it at a luxurious Indian hospital that will
let foreigners combine their medical care with a recuperative vacation in
Agra or Goa.

India has a solid financial system, while China's banking system is a
catastrophe. And India is in better shape demographically for long-term
growth: China has already reaped most of the economic benefits of population
control and is now rapidly aging, but India's population will be
disproportionately working-age for many decades to come (a factor that
strongly correlates with economic growth).


... deleted


Yet if democracy is one of India's strengths, it's also a weakness. Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh knows exactly what to do, and I've rarely met a
leader more competent (or less charismatic). But his reforms are stalled or
slowed in the Indian political labyrinth. India's basic problem is that its
economic policy-making isn't nearly as shrewd, pro-growth or farsighted as
China's.

That's a tragedy: we should all want India to demonstrate that democracy is
an advantage. But Indian lawmakers aren't helping.

Foreigners are still blocked from directly investing in some sectors in
India, like retailing. Privatization is lethargic. Food subsidies are
soaring and are so inefficient that it costs 6.6 rupees to transfer 1
rupee's worth of food to the poor. Restrictive labor laws mean that
companies hesitate to hire, and regulations tend to suffocate
entrepreneurship.

... deleted

And while China has been exceptionally shrewd in upgrading its
infrastructure, India has been pathetic. India's economic future is marred
by its third-rate roads and ports.

India is also horrendously mismanaging its AIDS crisis; it may already have
more H.I.V. cases than any country in the world. AIDS casts a cloud over
this nation's entire future.

The bottom line is that the once-great nation of India is reawakening from
several centuries of torpor, and facing less risk of a political cataclysm
than China. India is poised to again be a great world power.

But over all, my bet is that China will still grow faster and win the race
of the century. I'm going to tell my kids to keep studying Chinese, rather
than switch to Hindi.



Copyright 2006The New York Times Company Home Privacy Policy Search
Corrections XML Help Contact Us Work for Us Site Map Back to Top