Monday, January 23, 2006

Fwd: Iranian gas, China and India

jan 22nd

ram narayan's friend has some sensible things to say about chinese imperial fantasies and the way they are going about squeezing india by the cojones.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ram
Date: Jan 21, 2006 4:16 AM
Subject: Iranian gas, China and India
To: Undisclosed-Recipient


Dear Friends:

The following analysis by an American friend which came as a reaction to one
of my recent despatches, offers some thoughts that call for careful study by
Indian policymakers.

Ram

----- Original Message -----
From: <Jim Yost>
To: <Ram Narayanan>
Sent: Saturday, January 21, 2006 4:17 AM
Subject: Re: **Have the pro-Chinese nonproliferation ayatollahs overreached
themselves?


Ram,

We already know that China has a stranglehold on Pakistan and Iran, ...
but apparently the grip is even tighter than many suspect, and China is
now tacitly reaching towards India.

How many people know that the Yadavaran gas field, from which the gas to
India would flow,  is predominantly under the control of the Chinese
(via state-run Sinopec) in that they have a 51% (not 50% as most reports
claim) controlling interest?  That 51%, along with the 30% Iranian
interest translates to more than 80% Chinese control.   To confirm that,
in today's Asia Times (20 Jan 05) M.K. Bhadrakumar puts it in these
stark terms, "... Significantly, the Chinese state oil company Sinopec
operates the Yadavaran field."

India, if brought in as a minority partner, would supposedly be allotted
only up to 20% interest.  No doubt, operational and logistical issues
would be decided according to China's wishes since Iran is already
virtually contractually bound to side with the Chinese, otherwise the
deal would not have been struck, ...   Like I said, the Chinese do not
enter into these kinds of things unless they are guaranteed significant
control.  This is proof positive of that.

Now, China is also suggesting that any pipeline to India also include
plans to incorporate a tributary line branching off to China.   Keep
that in mind for a moment.

In addition, not only has China suggested (at a meeting in Delhi in
October 05) that the Iran-Pak-India pipeline be extended to China, ...
China also wants the majority of the construction contracts on the
entire pipeline project. There are hundreds of Chinese in Pakistan
already, working on the Gwadar port project (450 "engineers" and
hundreds of "technicians" - per Asia Times), and if the Chinese do in
fact build most of the pipeline, hundreds more will be going to Iran,
Pakistan, ... and perhaps into India too.

Bells should be going off!   The danger here is that India would be
beholding to two of its supposed adversaries - China and Pakistan, ...
and the pipeline will be the equivalent of one of India's major
arteries.    Possible scenario:  In the event of any sort of volatile
discord arising between India and China, or Pakistan and India, after
completion of the pipeline, China could impose upon Iran or Pakistan
(since part of the pipeline passes through there) to turn off the
India-bound leg of the line.

Did you also know that the Chinese struck a similar deal for control and
development of the offshore South Pars oil and gas fields?    It's bad
enough that the Chinese are building up their presence in Gwadar, on
India's doorstep, now they will have another "chokepoint" in the Persian
Gulf, .... take a look at the location of the South Pars field.
http://www.spdltd.com/images/pages/map/parsmap.gif

If you want to see what the Chinese are really up to, and how the
Chinese develop other maritime projects such as so-called "fishing
grounds" and "oil, gas, and mineral deposit sights," read this:
http://www.afcea.org/signal/articles/anmviewer.asp?a=80&z=30


The recent suggestions by Kerry -- that India should consider
alternatives and/or collateral sources to the Iranian supplies, -- look
to be more for the purpose of protecting India's ability to avoid being
coerced into siding with the Iran-Pakistan-China block. And
considering the volatility of the Iran nuke situation, alternatives
should probably be given serious consideration.   I have a feeling that
the U.S., at least for the time being, will continue to work to
facilitate ramping-up India's nuclear power generation capabilities, ...
and although that would not completely eliminate the need for the gas,
it should provide India with a bit more flexibility in seeking out other
prospective oil/gas sources, or at least sources that do not require
significant capitulation of sovereignty as a term of any contract.

On the other hand, I could see where the Indo-U.S. nuke efforts may
stall out if the U.S. believes that developments down the road could
result in any transferred technology finding its way into
Chinese/Iranian hands, as has happened in the past. Of course, China
would love nothing better than for India to cave-in under the pressure,
thus allowing China to trap India as a dependent "colony" in yet another
exercise in Sino-mercantilism.


Re: Proliferation ...

In the Oct '05 bulletin of the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives
Monitor, Asad Ismi notes that in addition to assisting Iran with the
development of its nuclear program (along with Pakistan) China is
selling Iran sophisticated surface-to-surface and anti-ship missiles,
and, along with Russia, is helping develop Tehran's long-range ballistic
missiles, which will be capable of mounting nuclear warheads.  He also
notes that, ... "the anti-ship missiles can be used in the Straits of
Hormuz - through which 40% of global oil exports are carried."

*** Important note:   Contrary to Iran's claim that they are not
actively developing a nuke weapons capability, they already possess the
nuclear warhead designs!   Not surprisingly, it was supplied by
Pakistan's Khan, furthermore, those plans and design specifications were
supplied to him by the Chinese, they are the same ones Khan provided to
Libya.  See the report by Douglas Jehl in November 27, 2004 issue of the
New York Times: "Pakistanis Gave Iran Nuclear Aid."

Even as the current situation develops, the Russians are also in Iran in
a significant capacity and they continue to lead the construction of the
Bushehr nuclear reactor.

Ismi continues:
" ... While the U.S. and the European Union threaten Iran over its
nuclear energy program, China and Russia support it.   Both countries
have made clear that they will not back United Nations resolutions or
sanctions against Iran for its nuclear program.   China and Russia hold
veto power in the UN Security Council.  As the Asia Times is reporting:
"The endorsement of Tehran's nuclear energy program by Moscow and
Beijing reveals the primary impetus behind the China-Iran-Russia axis."

I hope India doesn't get drawn into that China-Iran-Russia "axis," ...
but the U.S. must assist in providing India with a way out by offering
viable alternatives and options.

Regards,

Jim

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