jul 15th, 2009
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/84a13062-6f0c-11de-9109-00144feabdc0,dwp_uuid=a6dfcf08-9c79-11da-8762-0000779e2340.html
the chances are that there will be a short, sharp war again with china attacking and walking off this time with arunachal pradesh.
history repeats.
the last time there was a malayali defence minister (v k krishna menon), malayalis bigwigs in foreign service (sardar panikkar as amb to china), malayalis as secretaries to nehru dynasty types (m o mathai), etc. india lost tibet and aksai chin.
this time it is even worse. india may lose arunachal, sikkim, and maybe the pasupati-to-tirupati corridor will become an international boundary. or the northeast with its pious christists, will secede and become 'greater nagaland'.
what joy is in prospect for india's 'strong' prime minister. who will then whine that he has lost sleep because the hans killed some mohammedans inadvertently while bombing bengal. (btw, why hasn't he already said he has lost sleep over the killing of uighur mohammedans by the hans? or is it ok because it is hans doing the killing?)
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A MILITARY MESSAGE FROM THE NEW PLAYER ON THE BLOCK
After the return of the Chinese naval expedition to fight piracy off the Somalia coast in May, Rear Admiral Du Jingchen, the commander of the fleet, declared the mission accomplished. “It was safe, smooth and satisfactory,” he said.
In truth, for China and the countries clustered around the Indian Ocean, the mission was much more, writes Richard McGregor.
This was the first time Beijing had used its navy to escort vessels sailing under its national flag at such a distance from its homeland. The fact that Chinese ships transited through the Indian Ocean, an area New Delhi regards as its backyard, gave the event an extra geopolitical edge.
Like most displays of Chinese power, the naval mission said more about the future of Beijing’s influence than its authority today. The navy has little capability to conduct sustained missions far from home. As Mr Cole points out, it has only a handful of supply ships essential to such missions, and is not rushing to build many more.
But there is little doubt Beijing harbours long-term ambitions to build a navy with a capability that matches both its ambitions to be a great power and its swelling global economic interests.
The People’s Liberation Army and its naval wing moved beyond a singular focus on Taiwan “several years ago”, according to Alex Huang, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Taipei. “They are sending a message that the Chinese navy is going places, and that they are the new player on the block.”
It is not just India and its neighbours that are feeling the effects of China’s rise. The US and its allies in the Pacific, including Japan, Australia and the Philippines, have all been forced to adjust their strategic outlook to take account of Beijing’s ambitions.
But few regions have been so methodically mapped out by China as the Indian Ocean and its environs, where Beijing has built or financed ports from Burma to Pakistan to draw a line of influence – the so-called “string of pearls” – from south-east Asia all the way to the Middle East.
Every new display of the navy’s latest hardware is accompanied by a statement from the Beijing leadership reassuring neighbours about China’s desire for peace and co-operation.
But as military strategists have long known, China’s mere presence in the region is a statement in itself. Once it is accompanied by military hardware, the power of the message will only be redoubled.
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Fear of influence
By James Lamont and Amy Kazmin
Hambantota, in southern Sri Lanka, was a sleepy seaside village devastated by the 2004 tsunami. Famous for salt flats and a searing climate, it’s most celebrated building was a British-built watchtower, now home to a fisheries museum.
Gwadar, likewise, until seven years ago, was a fishing town in Baluchistan on Pakistan’s south-western shoreline. An enclave on the Arabian Sea given to Islamabad by the Aga Khan, it was not much thought of as a key staging point between central Asia and the Gulf.
Today these little-known towns are fast emerging on to a bigger political and economic map thanks to Chinese finance and engineering, which is upgrading their ports into world-class facilities. They are part of China’s so-called “string of pearls” – the ports, staging posts and hubs that analysts say describe expanding Chinese interests and diplomatic initiatives in south Asia. The outreach – or, to some, apparent encirclement – is underpinned by infrastructure projects, arms supplies, energy routes and diplomatic protection.
Nowhere is this development causing more disquiet than in India.
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Indian defence officials eye China’s activities in Sri Lanka with particular concern. – not least as the island overlooks important shipping lanes that carry much of the world’s oil trade.
Chinese military ordnance was decisive in the final stages of Colombo’s war against the Tamil Tigers, defence experts say. Beijing has increased its aid to Sri Lanka fivefold to $1bn a year and stepped up supplies of sophisticated weapons such as Jian-7 fighter jets, anti-aircraft guns and air surveillance radar.
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To India’s east, China has emerged as the closest ally and international protector of Burma’s isolated military junta, which is shunned by most western governments and subjected to sanctions. China is Burma’s largest trading partner, and was long rumoured to have a listening post in southern Burma on the Bay of Bengal.
“I don’t think there is some nefarious Chinese scheme on Burma, but with western sanctions, there has been a vacuum in Burma and China has been happy to fill that vacuum,” says Thant Myint-U, an authority on the relationship between Burma, China and India.
Beijing, which has repeatedly shielded Burma in the UN Security Council, is being repaid with access to some of Burma’s rich trove of natural gas at “friendship” prices, according to some Burmese analysts. China is beginning the construction of a pipeline that will carry oil from Sittwe, on the Bay of Bengal, to China.
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The Gwadar port project, one of the highest-profile examples of Chinese assistance, envisages a naval anchor, and transport and energy transhipment links reaching all the way to Xinjiang province in China’s west.
China has also emerged as Pakistan’s largest supplier of defence hardware, and is helping renew the country’s jet fighter strike force.
“We are not in a position to take them on militarily, economically and now not even politically,” says Ms Ghose. “The only option we’ve got is diplomatic. At the moment, the US is of no help. ”
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