Sunday, January 04, 2009

Will Prabhakaran/LTTE Flee to India?

Here is analysis by B Raman:

http://ramansterrorismana...-after-kilinochchi-q.html

He writes:
Q. What are the chances of he and his cadres taking shelter in India?

A. The Governments of India and Tamil Nadu will not allow it.However, one has to be alert to the possibility that the Maoists (Naxalites) inthe tribal belt of central India who have some territorial control in the jungles might help him and give him shelter in return for theassistance which the LTTE had allegedly given them in the past. If he manages to reach the Maoists controlled territory, the ability of oursecurity forces to get at him may be limited. In the case of the LTTE cadres, some of them might succeed to come over to India as refugees.This would call for stricter vetting of the refugee flow in order to identigy and arrest such elements.
Will LTTE leaders, including Velupillai Prabhakaran, flee into Maoist-controlled areas of India?
Because that is the only area where I can see him able to go -- into jungles between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, or Andhra Pradesh.
LTTE has collaborated with the Naxalites in the past, and they could grant him sanctuary. India being a soft state, and not tough like Sri Lanka, means that if LTTE leaders hole up inside India, we won't be able to nab them. Meanwhile, they'd make common cause with the Naxalites, and use them as a stepping stone to set Tamil Nadu on fire. Is this why Pakistan has been trying to help Colombo defeat LTTE - so that they could push the Eelam war into India? Or are they only motivated by China's String-of-Pearls agenda in this regard?

4 comments:

Incognito said...

Why would the Govt of Tamil Nadu not allow Prabhakaran shelter in India?

Their actions and talks say otherwise

san said...

Karunanidhi's stupidity in stoking Tamil alienation reminds me of Buddhadeb's stupidity in stoking class warfare. Even when Buddhadeb decided to turn a new leaf and go in for the Tata Nano plant, the existing momentum of labour militancy which he'd already created could not be stopped by him, and was quickly picked up by Mamta. Likewise, with Karunanidhi, it will be the same thing. If LTTE seriously tries to set up shop in TN in earnest, Karunanidhi will find that the dangerous political kindling he's created could burn out of his control, even if he repents and tries to shut it off.

Unknown said...

B. Raman is an interesting person. Till recently B. Raman used to write a column for the Outlook. Now it looks like he has been (quite rightly) booted out. But B. Raman is a man who will not give up, a man used to doing his own stuff, in his own way, irrespective of the consequences. From B Raman's columns, one understands that he used to be with RAW. Possibly he worked with the LTTE at a time India very stupidly supported the terrorist groups operating there.

Over a year ago, just after LTTE had successfully attacked the Anuradhapura Airfield, B. Raman wrote an article eulogising the LTTE. This is the article: http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20071023&fname=ltte&sid=1
This article was so fulsome in praise that the LTTE's propaganda unit quoted from it.

In this article, Raman has helpfully stated that India is proving military supplies to the LTTE, something that will go down well in Tamil Nadu: http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20080910&fname=raman&sid=1

This article was written after the Muhamalai debacle: http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20080425&fname=lanka&sid=1

There have been many more articles from B Raman praising the LTTE's courage. Recently, just before the Lankans took Kilinochchi, apna Raman wrote an article claiming that Kilinochchi would be the Lankan Stalingrad. Here is the article: http://www.outlookindia.com/full.asp?fodname=20081020&fname=ltte&sid=1
Mind you, Raman, being ex-civil service, is very smart and careful. Once in a while he will write an article that touches upon the LTTE's weaknesses. Many of his articles will appear to be balanced. Till he comes up with a totally pro-LTTE googly.
LTTE is an organisation responsible for the deaths of over a 1000 or over soldiers. The war against the IPKF was started off by the LTTE capturing 5 paratroopers and killing them by garlanding them with burning tyres. And of course, they killed Rajiv Gandhi.

Raman has the freedom to express his views (though I am surprised that as a retired intelligence agent, he isn't subject to a contractual restriction that prevents him from making anti-national statements). Just as Raman is free to express his view, we are free to express ours by not praising him. Let’s ignore the man who has repeated backstabbed India though he still draws a pension from the Indian government.

Brahamvakya said...

Patriotic,
he was head of IB, no ordinary sleuth.