sept 19, 2006
and why isn't the agriculture minister at the center doing hara-kiri over this?
why isn't the maharashtra government resigning?
yeah, bring in heavy industry and pollute the land; kill off the local genetic variation and become dependent on GM seeds from the yanks. nice going, sonia gandhi and sitaram yechuri.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/09/19/world/asia/19india.html?ei=5087%0A&en=565a95908a0fedbd&ex=1158811200&pagewanted=all
2 comments:
Rajeev, NYT provides a surface-level view - Two articles by S Gurumurty will show the crisis in Indian Agriculture. ( part 1 and part 2 ). In addition, I wish to emphasise that Indian farmers giving up agriculture is more than just a loss of food security. It is a loss of intellectual property - since such wisdom is inherited in the Indian system and not resident in University text-books. If one or two generations give up agriculture this vast knowledge is lost - and irretrievably so
Problem is with our governing elite; and is summed in one, hyphenated phrase the "Derivative-Society". First the elite said that state-directed enterprise (one imported ecomonic model) is the way to go - that having failed, the new claim is the invisible hand of the market, liberalised-globalised economics is the way to go. This too is a looming disaster - primarily because others preach more liberal markets than they do. We must cast the governing elites in the Bay of Bengal - at least they will die facing China!
So much for gloom and doom. Look at the bright side.
Supply-side
# In terms of arable land (sq. km.) India vs. US is near parity (1,438,132 vs. 1,650,062) in spite of our total land mass being one third of the US (2,973,190 vs. 9,158,960)! When compared with the "People's" Republic - things look even rosier (refer web pages for China, India and The United States .)
Since a picture is worth a thousand words etc. Notice how India's total Arable land mass (sq km.) probably exceeds that of every other country barring the US
Notice how this gives us a leg up over China in terms of food security - hence a logical corollary - any investments here shall be opposed by the Commies
# India's irrigated land at 558,080 sq km is more than twice that of the United States at 223,850sq km . This shows that we have a decent irrigation system (canals, reservoirs etc.)- though I would be weary of this conclusions. It could be that we just use up a lot ground water. The latter logic is reinforced by India's falling water table.
# India has a fair technological base for seed development, bio tech etc., though we could do better. In this I would also count the native wisdom that is locale-specific and arises out of trial-and-error of many generations of farming. Sadly - this is in great danger of being wiped out
# Agricultural labor supply availability - rather obvious
Demand-side
# A billion people+ will need food never mind what else happens
# The world's population is growing and there should be some sort of export market.
Though I doubt this will benefit us - the more advanced countries will either raise tariff barriers even higher - or start citing silly "Health" concerns. This will be best exemplified by the redoubtable Lou Dobbs telling people that "India is already selling us Cheap, low-quality software - now they want to give us infected food" The other option is to export to Africa etc. - and I am not sure they can even pay! Perhaps food surplus can be used as a bargaining chip with these countries when competing for influence with the Chinese. Second reasons for Commies to oppose investment in agriculture
# Even if we cannot export food - our growing population, specially with a huge "Youth Bulge" in the coming years should ensure a very healthy market for food grains, cereals, etc. This will become more important if incomes start increasing - which should happen if the economy keeps growing
Put the Demand-Supply factors together and you have a mass-employment generating, non-polluting, rural industry that does not need either import-substitution or export-promotion incentives to grow!!!!
ALL THIS ADVANTAGE WILL BE LOST IF WE FOLLOW CURRENT POLICY, WHICH WILL LEAD TO A FOOD CRISIS. IF FARMERS DO NOT PRODUCE - WE ARE ALL DEAD (EVEN BEFORE THE LONG TERM)
Disclaimer:
Im no fan of the sickular congress -- they're as bad as it gets.
Having said that, if truth be told, Bt etc. is a path all the pro-reform governments have espoused -- including the BJP.
So Rajeev: blaming sonia and yechury is a bit disingenious.
It is in fact the leftists, epitomised by folks like Vandana Shiva who have fought FOR indian bio diversity the hardest.
Unfortunately Bt cotton et al are only band-aid solutions to the problem.
india's problem is not one of insufficient production -- its one of too much damn wastage and spoilage.
The real problems are (as i mentioned elsewhere on this blog)
a. absence of a market for agriculture -- its controlled by government pimps. So farmers cannot sell direct to customers. In fact indian corporates who aspire to set up "farm to fork" supply chains will help.
This is THE main reason why agri is not a sustainbale livelihood -- the nehruvian mafia have destroyed any semblance of a market here!
b. absence of agri infrastructure such as roads for transport, reliable electricity for cold chains (to transport fresh frozen foods) and even financial support so that farmers can get cheap leverage! Not rocket science.
Which is why in india you cannot get oranges from nasik to mumbai (as opposed to the US where you can get atlantic salmon in los angeles)
This is THE main reason why so much farm produce in india is wasted.
Do this ans Bt et al are irrelevant -- create a market and give it the infrastructure, and watch what happens.
We dont need no heavy industries -- india can become the food market of the world!
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