Monday, February 27, 2017
Sunday, February 26, 2017
From: Capt.(Dr.) S G Naravane
Fwd: Pakistan: Water Crisis and the Indus Water Treaty+The reality of the India-China strategic dialogue+Taliban’s strange new friends
From: Sanjeev Nayyar
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From: Vaidyanathan R
February 20, 2017 ·
War Clouds over Europe: Are we prepared?
I wrote in 2013 about "Europe Going Down"
"The European economic and social crisis is becoming worse with each passing day. One business channel asked me in 2008 how long it might take to recover and I responded saying 40 quarters — they never came back to interview. But now I forecast it may never recover.
Sri Aurobindo seems to have said that India will rise on the ashes of western civilisation and it seems to be coming true. It is important to recognise that the dominance of the West has been there only for last 200 odd years. According to Angus Maddison's pioneering OECD study, India and China had nearly 50 per cent of global GDP as late as the 1820s. Hence India and China are not emerging or rising powers. They are retrieving their original position. In 1990, the share of the G-7 in world GDP (on a purchasing power parity basis) was 51 per cent and that of emerging markets, 36 per cent. But in 2012, it is the reverse. So the dominant west is a myth.
Europe is facing three types of crisis – economic, demographic, civilisational and it is not in a position to come out of these. All three are not recent ones; they were developing over a period and are now culminating into a catastrophe.
The Debt to GDP ratio of most of Europe is at unsustainable levels with our own Britain having above 500 per cent — I say our own since we are going to have to help them run their country sooner than later. There are three major constituents of debt — Government debt, corporate debt and household debt. Of the three, we find household debt has reached nearly 80 to 100 per cent of GDP in most of these countries. The reason is simple — unlike India, households in Europe and USA have forgotten one simple word — savings. They live on debt and are interned by debt.
The situation is made worse by the unemployment situation. Youth unemployment has reached 55 per cent in Spain and hovering above 30 per cent in most of the other countries. Youth is defined as being between the ages of 16 to 24, unlike in India where even a 43-year-old is a 'youth icon'. The overall unemployment is at more than 25 per cent in most countries and it is creating social turmoil.
Along with this is the demographic crisis. The population of Europe during the First World War was nearly 25 per cent. Today it is around 11 per cent and is expected to become 3 per cent in another 20 years. This is mainly due to low reproductive rates and in some countries is as low as 1 when 2.1 is considered as equilibrating rate. Europe will disappear from the world map unless migrants from Africa and Asia take it over. That is why Europe is being referred to as Eurobia and London as Londonistan.
The root cause of the issue is the attempt in Europe to nationalise families and privatise business. Old age issue/ health issues/ child care issues are all normal family activities that have been taken over by the state and the state is broke. Funded security schemes are facing crisis since not enough numbers are getting in to labour force due to low reproductive rates and unfunded
security system is in difficulty since taxes are not adequate due to low population growth.
Coupled with economic and demographic crisis is the crisis of civilisation in Europe. It has renounced the Church and has become secular. Church attendance has fallen significantly and churches have become tourist attractions rather than places of worship.
Most of the migrants, particularly those doing 'brown colour work' – like garbage removal, cleaning plates in restaurant, porter jobs, and grape-picking — are people from Mauritania/ Somalia/ Algeria etc and most are Muslims by faith. Due to a high degree of unemployment, there is resentment against migrants and this anger is turning into anger against Muslims. Added to this is the new front started by France in Mali to fight Islamic fundamentalists. Africa may become a new Vietnam for Europe.
Europe is sitting on a time bomb and any small spark could ignite it. Remember that all conflicts in the last 2000 years have started in Europe and became 'world' conflicts. India has already given $10 billion or Rs 56,000 crore – nearly one per cent of GDP to help Europe. Not a single European paper or leader has thanked us openly. One can only hope that we need not give more of our GDP or become cannon fodder in Anglo-Saxon conflicts."
Again in 2016 about– How the idea of Europe is dead
"Brussels Airport attacks by Jihadists again bring to life challenge faced by Europe as we know. Europe of Mozart and Goethe and Schopenhauer and Sartre and Beethoven is dead.
The cultured European having his wine and enjoying concerts and Opera is passé.
Today Every European walks with his eyes turned on his back and ears listening to any changes.
In small towns new neighbours are looked at with suspicion and old neighbours are expected to behave. The sound of screeching cars at night makes them awake and sirens and cops are normal scene.
The Radical Islam is not fighting Christianity –which anyhow is dead in Europe—but it is fighting the modernity. Islam is frightened of modernity destroying their religion and culture how so ever unacceptable it may be to European liberals. It is concerned about pre-marital sex/contraception/
Europe does not know how to handle it. The rise of rightwing forces –le Pen in France and PEGIDA in Germany-is going to lit the fires of newer European conflicts. Europe thought– a la Merkel– that they can buy peace with radical Islam by "requesting" them to integrate. But integrate with what? Integrate with "immoral" Europe where women are exhibited as "open meat" [in the words of the Australian Imam] who are "poisonous"
Europe has seen Crusades and 100 years wars-between Christianity and Islam. But never has it had seen a conflict of this nature between "modernity" and Islam. The ongoing tussle in Turkey enlarges the conflict in the underbelly of Europe. Already Europe has 50% unemployment among youth groups and everyday 10000 are marching in the name of refugees. Remember some 200 years before entire Spain and up to the gates of Vienna it was Andalusia Empire and thousands of mosques were converted to Churches after Europe was "cleansed" of Islam.
This time the Europe which is facing crisis is different. It is not the Pews and Stained glasses but concert halls and swimming pools and whole night parties opposed by Radicals.
The issue is regarding life style and one likes it or not radical Islam is "Global moral policeman". He knows the place of women in society and also the place of Europeans.
Unfortunately Europe has lost the will to fight and stand for whatever are its values. Its own idea of "freedom" is going to devour it when it is offered to Radical Islamists. Europe as we know is dead. Amen."
Merkel did a major mistake in opening the doors for the "refugees" and same with EU. The numbers are swelling and expectedly a million more waiting. One section of them would prefer Sharia and rule of Caliphate. Social tensions increasing and the forces which are anti-immigrant –more particularly anti-Muslim are on the rise. The new forces reject the current EU but may build a new EU based on different set of values. The meeting of all these forces like Le Pen/Greet wilders/AfD at Koblenz in Germany –where MSM was not allowed-
Marine Le Pen claims 'Anglo Saxon world waking up' as Europe's far-right parties meet after Trump inauguration. 'Yesterday, a new America. Today – a new Europe,' anti-Islam politician Geert Wilders tells cheering crowds.
The conflict has given rise to war clouds over Europe between Global moral policeman "radical Islam" and "modern Europe"
This war is going to be catastrophic if Turkey falls to radical Islam.
Actually the origins of the conflict can be traced to Globalization which rejected Westphalian idea of sovereignty of nations. Both Radical Islam and Global corporations/Hege funds embraced this rejection. Local populations were against globalization which affected them. This we will see in another article.
This impending social strife and civil war in Europe will have implications for India.
- US will send troops to Europe to keep peace and arm twisting of India will start. Remember that India is largest contributor to "global peace keeping "role of UN.
But India is never consulted about the conflict zones or location & the need for peace keeping. India must not get involved in "peace keeping" given its internal demographic composition. India must demand membership of UNSC before even considering any request.
- Saudi wants to finish Iran in the process and USA has been stupidly convinced that Iran is a major danger. Saudi is also member of -believe me- UN human rights council- and a major financier of Amnesty International. Let India remember that civilisationally we have more in common with Iran than Saudis or their poodle terror central Pakistan.
- India has opportunity to scrap article 370 in J&K and allow all Indians to settle down in the valley. Each settler can be given Rs50 lakhs and a gun. Neither Trump nor Le Pen or AfD is going to bother about it. Within India except some TV warriors none would oppose it.
- Any war in European theatre will create huge number of our own Indian-refugees from ME and Europe into India. We need to be prepared for it
- There would be attempts by ISIs to recruit from India on a large scale by giving attractive stipends and Insurance to their families. India must crush such attempts with all its might.
- Indian businesses should be alert since most funds would pull out of India for war efforts in European theatre. Those businesses which have export/import links with US/Europe will be maximum affected unless their export products are useful for war.
- Of course Sensex and Nifty will be affected since our markets are not linked to our economy but to US and Europe situation since market movements are decided by Foreign funds.
- India has to take a stand –howsoever painful—that this war is not our war but between desert cultures.
- We have been sucked into 1st and 2nd world war due to colonialism. Even though the colonial genes are still strong in our body polity –we must not put the boots of our soldiers on European soil under any pretext.
- It will not be a conventional war but a war between terrorists/snipers/belt bombers and right wing militia men of Europe and US.
- Left liberals as usual will be with belt bombers but alas they will be the first one to be swallowed by the Radical Islam.
Breaking India forces can be crushed due to evolving global situation. Are we ready and do we have a plan?
Fwd: The terror Frankenstein+Pakistan acquiring helicopters to fight terrorists+China, India hold strategic dialogue+Assam raising second line of defence to tackle influx
From: Sanjeev Nayyar
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Perhaps Trump is deciding which battles he can win, and which he must step back from. After Nawaz Sharif returned to power, he too began embarking on major foreign policy changes such as thawing relations with India, when suddenly the Pak military rapped him him on the knuckles, and arm-twisted him into relinquishing control of foreign policy back to the military.
It's only once Trump builds up more political power for himself by winning on other fronts (improving America's economy, reducing unemployment, improving education, infrastructure, etc) that he'll be able to Bell the Cat and bring the Deep State to heel.
But of course America's Deep state has its flunkies in the US Congress too, just like ISI has flunkies among Pak parliamentarians. There seem to be various Republican Congressmen who keep mentioning the need for special inquiries into Trump's ties with Russia. The goal is to keep Trump struggling on the ropes until he can be ousted in 4 years time.
The question is - how will Steve Bannon handle the situation? He has obtained an unprecedented role for himself on the US National Security Council, but will now be facing in McMaster someone who is outspoken with views very different than his own.
What local competitors does Twitter have in India?
Saturday, February 25, 2017
Friday, February 24, 2017
Besides being used in the GSLV-Mk3, the system may one day be adapted for use on the upper stage of the TSTO (Two-Stage-to-Orbit) Reusable Launch Vehicle.
Thursday, February 23, 2017
- Solar tariffs hit all-time low: Rs2.97/unit. It couldn’t be a worse time for the coal-fuelled power plants in the country as India’s current installed capacity of 3,10,005 MW and the projects under construction are expected to meet the country’s electricity demand till 2026. This effectively means that there will be no requirement for new coal fuelled power plants in the country till then.
- Cognitive computing: Watson helps treat heart disease by looking at medical images
- Clogged cities: On an average, 353 new cars and 1,372 new bikes joined Bengaluru’s slow-moving traffic every day in 2016, taking the total number of vehicles to 66.65 lakh. "No amount of infrastructure will be adequate if private vehicles are not reduced".
- Tackling smog: London to charge all pre-2004 cars $27 to enter on weekdays
- Manu Prakash: Saving lives with simple Engineering
- 17 equations that changed the world:
It remains to be seen how Bannon will get this agenda implemented at the National Security Council, where a new seat has been created for him. Will the establishment be successful in opposing the new reforms?
Wednesday, February 22, 2017
This is a key area where India can make the leap into electronics manufacturing, and develop its own thriving ecosystem for homegrown hardware innovation. This in turn would have tremendous ripple effects on other sectors like defense and aerospace, as well as Make-in-India as a whole.
Tuesday, February 21, 2017
This technology could reduce India's dependence on external suppliers of Uranium.
Monday, February 20, 2017
Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster has staked out a decidedly more hawkish position on Russia and gone out of his way to assert that the war against terrorism must not turn into a war against Islam.McMaster's worldview and positions are significantly different than Michael Flynn's. The Lefties at CNN, etc are thrilled:
If pro-establishment establishment forces are successful in veering Trump back towards establishment policies of appeasement towards Islam, then India will have to look for strategic alternatives.
Sunday, February 19, 2017
Some private customers (private Indian and private Japanese) will be paying ISRO to send their lunar rovers to the Moon, which should be happening by year's end:
ISRO will also be sending its own rover to the Moon with the Chandrayaan-2 mission.
- Tech Shift: Half of Indian IT workforce may become irrelevant in 3 years: McKinsey
- Cutting Meat Without Cutting Muscle: Science finally settles the issue: If muscle-building protein is what you seek, plant protein is just as good as animal protein. ...Dangal got this wrong!
- Scientific Superstition: “As there is religious superstition, so also there is a superstition in the matter of science. …As soon as a great scientist’s name, like Darwin or Huxley, is cited, we follow blindly. It is the fashion of the day. Ninety-nine per cent of what we call scientific knowledge is mere theories. …Just as we should be careful with the priests, so we should be with the scientists. Begin with disbelief. Analyze, test, prove everything, and then take it.” -Swami Vivekananda
- The Helical Model - our solar system is a vortex
Saturday, February 18, 2017
US President Donald Trump has vowed not to let China claim the South China Sea as its own.
This powerful upper stage engine will be used on the new GSLV Mk-3.
Thursday, February 16, 2017
Musk is has targeted this particular sector because he feels it's ripe for innovation and disruption, since the technology hasn't advanced in over half a century. India should look at applying any revolutions in this field towards improving its own infrastructure.
I know Rajeev feels urban concentrations go against India's traditional village existence, but on the other hand, big cities can function more efficiently by concentrating large numbers of people in close proximity to infrastructure and resources. "3D cities" could enable more people to live within close proximity of work to ease their commute, while also making more efficient use of mass transit. Previously it was the rise of the automobile and cheap gas which facilitated suburban sprawl, while in the future the opposite scenario may be favored.
Additionally, India has some of the highest mountainous regions in the world, located in remote and highly disputed boundary areas. The ability to tunnel deeply into mountainsides could help in creating more fortified and impregnable defenses, as well as in improving logistical transport supply lines to these remote areas.
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
When the Deep State feels threatened by the winds of change, they seem to have claimed their own right to undermine the Trump Whitehouse, for the purpose of preserving their own policy agenda. The American Left are very gleeful about it, of course.
The real story here is why are there so many illegal leaks coming out of Washington? Will these leaks be happening as I deal on N.Korea etc?— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 14, 2017
The real scandal here is that classified information is illegally given out by "intelligence" like candy. Very un-American!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 15, 2017
Fwd: New Delhi will suffer loses if it plays Taiwan card+Windfall for Chinese on coal fired projects+Make In India’ Fighter Aircraft: Strategic Options+Managing scarce water resources Pak
From: Sanjeev Nayyar
The official documents revealed that by including the cost of insurance, also paid to a Chinese insurance company, the cost of borrowings would surge to 13 per cent. Adding insult to injury, the government has already exempted income of Chinese financial institutions from dividend income tax.'
10. Managing scarce water resources 14.2.17 by talat masood GOOd read. https://tribune.com.pk/story/
What is not well known that India having the advantage of being the upper riparian is cleverly utilising the ground water to its advantage! In Pakistan, unlike India, there is absence of laws for ground water usage to ensure equitable distribution among provinces.Pakistan is also faced with the danger wherein in certain areas saline water is mixing with sweet water.
The Indus River basin aquifer spans the two countries and when the Indians carry out excessive abstraction it results in starving the Pakistani side and lowering the water table. This in turn creates a favorable situation for Indian Punjab as water starts flowing to their side having a lower water table. This in turn adversely affects the water availability and quality on the Pakistani side.
When sanctity of treaties are violated then it could well open up a Pandora's box with China similarly exercising the option of diverting the Brahmaputra River!When sanctity of treaties are violated then it could well open up a Pandora's box with China similarly exercising the option of diverting the Brahmaputra River!'
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Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Monday, February 13, 2017
Looks like the Deep State has claimed its first main casualty - they'd managed to undermine Flynn by claiming that he'd talked to the Russians about possible lifting of sanctions against them. So by that standard, should Kissinger and Nixon have been labeled traitors by the Washington establishment for opening secret talks with China? Of course not - when Atlanticists dominate the Deep State, then all is forgiven in the interest of confronting Moscow - and that's what the imperialists in Rawalpindi and Beijing always bank on.
In the meantime, Trump's team has scheduled General David Petraeus for an interview, with an eye to having him replace Michael Flynn.
Sunday, February 12, 2017
Saturday, February 11, 2017
Friday, February 10, 2017
Thursday, February 09, 2017
- PwC report: China, India to overtake U.S. economy by 2050.
Largest GDP-PPP in 2050:
13. Saudi Arabia
16. Pakistan (..please ignore this, there will be no Pakistan in 2050)
18. South Korea
GDP purchasing-power-parity calculations aren't the gold standard for most U.S. macroeconomists.
- Republican Group Calls for Carbon Tax: $40 per ton of carbon dioxide produced.
- Renewables Boom, Emissions Plunge: Since 2007, U.S. GDP has grown by 12 percent, while energy consumption has fallen by 3.6 percent.
- BJP's Uttarkhand miscalculation: “The BJP was certain to get a decisive mandate had we not indulged in toppling Rawat. Now, we have welcomed even the liabilities of the Congress into our fold.”
- Om Shreem Shriyei: