Friday, December 12, 2008

Debroy: India's economic slowdown self inflicted

I've always found Debroy's views to be the equivalent of a very cold shower -- not always pleasant, but a dam good wake up call.
And he delivered another one this morning, though frankly it was not unexpected: India's economy is slowing because of internal mismanagement, not global forces.
Had fiscal reforms and rectitude characterised years of buoyant growth, life would have been different. But today, properly accounted (not technical definition of fiscal deficit alone) deficits are at pre-1991 levels, with the Centre the culprit. There is little room for fiscal expansion and barring indirect tax cuts, other elements of the new fiscal package sound more promising than they are.

Ignoring this, India’s investment rate is now more than 36 per cent. The fiscal stimulus, if significant, implies a switch from private to government expenditure and from investment to consumption expenditure. This knocks the bottom out of what has driven Indian growth since 2003. Perhaps that reason, rather than globalfactors, persuaded non-government forecasters to reduce their forecasts to 5 per cent.


Translation: instead of spending on durable goods that will create value and drive future growth, the UPA, which was given a robust economy, has adopted charvaak neeti (take debt, but live well).
Ironic that the same newspaper had this to say:
http://www.indianexpress.com/news/industrial-growth-crashes-to-0.4-per-cent/397633/


And this same FM is now our Home minister. I pray he does not do the same 'magic' to our security.

3 comments:

Jiggs said...

I have no doubts about it. The fact remains that the economy has been mis-managed by the Congress led UPA.
Chidambaram unleashed economic terrorism in the country and he must be put in the dock and made to answer questions and subsequently jailed.
The lack of liquidity today is nothing but, funding of the white elephants created (NREGA/Farm loan waiver.
Chidambaram went on air saying that he has released 25000 crores for the farm loan waivers some 20 days ago and day before yesterday CNBC showed bankers telling no money is received as yet.
In simple words the government is CASH STRIPPED, they have ruined our economy for good.

Unknown said...

Articles by Sucheta Dalal on mismanagement by the government:
http://suchetadalal.com/?id=eb746cf3-4ed4-ae76-49367c80fc3d&base=sections&f&t=Living+in+Denial+(MoneyLIFE+Issue%2C+18th+Dec+08+-+Different+Strokes)

http://suchetadalal.com/?id=ea0fa00a-6fba-90dc-4936820d006a&base=sections&f&t=Crosshairs+(MoneyLIFE+Issue%2C+18th+Dec+08)

Itsdifferent said...

off topic: Interesting observation on terrorism
Look at the Terror Pattern below:

13 May -> JAIPUR
June - nothing
26 July -> AHMEDABAD
August - nothing
13 September -> DELHI
October - nothing
26 November -> MUMBAI
December - nothing
13 January -> What Next?

I hope nothing should happen...?

BE VERY CAREFUL & CAUTIOUS

In case you come across any suspicious activity, any suspicious movement or have any information to tell to the Anti-Terror Squad, please take a Note of the new ALL INDIA TOLL-FREE Terror Help-line "1090".