Tuesday, June 30, 2015

Fwd: How to salvage some security from the botched Iran deal

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From: Capt

If the west does not stand firm, Israelis may be left to face the ayatollahs, writes Michael Herzog
June 29, 2015 12:03 pm

Israel is not at the table negotiating the deal on Iran's nuclear programme. Yet it is Israel's national security, perhaps more than anyone else's, that will be affected. Threatened by Iran's nuclear and hegemonic ambitions, Israel and most of its Arab neighbours question whether the expected agreement will stem either.

The choice is not between a good deal and a bad deal. A good deal — permanently rolling back Iran's nuclear capacity, as was done in Libya — is no longer possible. The question is whether the deal is acceptable, given the confines of the framework agreed in April.

That framework in effect legitimises Iran as a nuclear-threshold state and focuses on stopping it from crossing that threshold. In the first decade the deal limits Iran's capacity to quickly make enough nuclear material for a weapon. But in the second decade Iran is allowed to reduce its breakout time almost to zero, as restrictions on enrichment and stockpiling of uranium expire.

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