BJP has been caught napping on this combination of populist hipster-doofuses and sloganeers that seems to have caught the fancy of the middle class.
A recent C-Voter survey forecasts that a 5 - 10% vote share for AAP will damage the BJP in 50 to 100 seats. And still, there seems to be no sign of BJP taking this challenge head on, while at the same time they are wasting energy kicking the Congress' dead corpse.
I'm no strategist, but at the very least BJP should be doing the following in the next 3 months:
A recent C-Voter survey forecasts that a 5 - 10% vote share for AAP will damage the BJP in 50 to 100 seats. And still, there seems to be no sign of BJP taking this challenge head on, while at the same time they are wasting energy kicking the Congress' dead corpse.
I'm no strategist, but at the very least BJP should be doing the following in the next 3 months:
- Play up the unholy alliance of AAP with Congress, JD(U) and other assorted scum and make it clear to the middle class what awaits them if they elect this combination to power
- Openly speak about AAP possibly being aided by subversive and anti-national forces and play up the backgrounds of Prashant Bhushan, Yogendra Yadav etc
- Take the support of Anna Hazare et al [Which is already happening]
- Indulge in tokenism by gathering enough anecdotes of going out of the way to help "common folk". E.g.AAP supposedly came to the rescue of some university professor (http://www.ndtv.com/article/india/mumbai-professor-punished-for-speaking-out-aap-joins-students-protest-468399)
- Go all-out in a social media war with AAP using facebook, twitter and most importantly BBM and Whatsapp
7 comments:
I don't think it's the BJP which has been caught napping. The reality is that Indian voters are too ignorant on where their long-term interests lie, and are therefore easily seduced by any bit of glitter that catches their eye.
India is already going to be hit by the US Fed tapering that's coming up. If India further delivers a hung parliament in the elections, then Indians will have sealed their fate and destroyed their opportunity for reform and rescue. Standard & Poors will quite sensibly give India a sovereign credit downgrade, and the same aam aadmi who voted for Kejriwal will be crushed by the weight of price inflation. Aam aadmi will get what they deserve.
Furthermore, I don't think Modi should elevate Kejriwal to an equal by attacking him directly. Let Modi talk generally about good policies, and let him still continue criticizing the Congress royalty. Let the other BJP lieutenants, including Jaitley and others, attack Kejriwal and AAP.
It's increasingly clear that Kejriwal is an idiot, with inadequate experience and knowledge. If enough voters are stupid enough to help him hamstring the BJP's reform mandate, then let Standard&Poor's brahmastra vaporize them all. Sometimes the best solution is Noah and the Flood. Make Gujarat the Ark, let the rest swim or drown, as payment for their sins. The laws of physics and economics are the most powerful, and they spare no one - especially not the stupid.
Somewhere between the Anna Hazare Lok Pal Fast, and the AAP's surprise elevation to the governing party of Delhi, the BJP seems to have lost the plot wrt the AAP. Most galling was the revelation that senior BJP leaders were aware that the AAP could win a lot of seats in Delhi about a month before the elections, but did nothing about it, I guess hoping that projections of an AAP victory would not come to pass.
Anyway, a winner should be able to create an opportunity from every setback.
In the elections to the Delhi assembly elections the BJP+ & AAP between them won 60 seats. That is more than a 3/4 of the total seats in the Delhi Assembly.
Such a majority at the national level would enable the ruling dispensation to even dump this constitution, and come up another one more suitable for the Indian milieu. Imagine that!
I am no strategist either, but if I were the BJP top brass, I would let this AAP thing play out fully, outside the BJP's core constituencies, of course.
Then once the election results have been tallied, and if the BJP+ and AAP win more than 2/3 or even 3/4 of the seats in the Lok Sabha as seems likely now, then appropriate noises should be made, as to how this was a mandate for BJP + AAP, with the BJP, of course being the senior partner.
Once such thinking gains currency, strategies can then be put in place to establish a BJP + AAP government. Once the government is established, the BJP can them use the AAP's inexperience to its advantage to push its policies, while sidelining or even splitting the AAP into many small groups, all the while retaining the support of the splinter groups.
Risky strategy, but if it succeeds it could establish the BJP as the ruling party for many decades, with all the collateral benefits for Indians in general, and Hindus in particular.
Possible? Probable? Fantasy?
Sujeev, San
This is probably the last chance to prevent the balkanisation of India. AAP has to be taken on.
I agree with San that Modi should not be the one to make any comments on AAP, but others in the party should attack AAP all out.
I am happy though that AAP is getting a chance in Delhi to display its unique blend of idiocy and treachery.
Sujeev, I don't agree at all with the idea of any joint BJP-AAP govt. Those people are Lefties, and would act to thwart any BJP reforms. Sorry, but clever-by-half stunts aren't the way forward. We don't need to build up this 5th Column, or invite them in like Dienbienfu.
Just like the Japanese socialists, these people are one Fukushima disaster away from collapse. Their inexperience in crisis management would result in a disaster for their constituents. Even now, some sections of Delhi are experiencing power blackouts. These guys don't have what it takes to provide governance. Their folksy gimmickry can't solve the daily needs of the common man.
BJP needs to emphasize its track record on DEVELOPMENT, which is something that Kejriwal can't match.
San/Non-Carborundum,
The BJP has to promote its positives all the way to the election, and expose the AAP's weaknesses at the same time, but the only thing that will enable the BJP to come to power, with Namo as PM, are LS seats.
I hope the AAP fails, and fails quickly, because that is the only way AAP votes will migrate to the BJP. If the AAP fails close to the elections, or if it fails after the elections, then I have the feeling, AAP votes will migrate back to the Congress, thus validating the Congress' strategy of using the AAP to thwart the BJP this time around, and come back in 2019.
The BJP simply cannot allow this to happen.
After Delhi, simply chanting NAMO, NAMO, is not likely to be enough to put him in the PM's seat.
Thus far I don't see the BJP working with a clear plan to increase its seat tally, in these AAP addled times.
In the South, Karnataka seems to OK, and something is being done in Tamil Nadu, but it is dilly dallying in Andhra Pradesh, and not doing very much in Kerala, I believe.
In Andhra Pradesh, newspaper reports indicate the BJP is trying to tie up with the Telugu Desam under Chandrababu Naidu, which is not such a good idea, as Naidu seems to have the lost the pulse of voters. A one election prepoll tie up with the Christian YSRCP will deliver better returns in terms of LS seats, I think.
In Kerala, the only way for the BJP to win some seats is to woo disgruntled CPM voters, and party functionaries, in a big way. Maybe make a big fish like VS Achunanthan defect(he has already made some noises against muslims and Islamic organizations in the last state elections, and been bashed for those comments). I also read somewhere recently that CPM party functionaries have been asked to quit indulging in Hindu religious activities, and that they are not happy about that edict. The BJP must go after these functionaries aggressively.
I hope the BJP firms up its alliances, and strategies, quickly under these AAP altered circumstances to get to 272, but if it falls short, it has to find a way to put Namo in the PM's seat, even if it has to take the AAP's support. Splitting the AAP to stay in power should be easy enough later, as all the people jumping onto the AAP bandwagon fast today, can easily jump off it as quickly, once they realize it is a sham.
No more doing a Delhi.
If the AAP does not fall flat on its face soon, then allowing allowing it to come to power in Delhi will rank at the top of historic blunders by the BJP, ranking somewhere next to accompanying the hijackers of IC 814 to Kandahar by Jaswant Singh, and Advani's homage to "secular" Jinnah.
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