No one is claiming that there will be any absolute decline, but there's a huge difference between the downstream effect of an employment intensive industry that grows at 40% a year and one that grows at 8% or 10%.
For almost a whole generation of young men and women entering the urban employment market, IT services has been the great safety valve. A high-growth industry whose growth is almost linearly related to employment generation was the best thing that could have happened to India in the last two decades. The constantly increasing workforce, with constantly increasing pay cheques and a constant predilection to spend — it was a wonderful combination while it last-ed. However, that was then. Make no mistake, an era is over — that kind of growth is not coming back.
ET: Golden age of Indian IT is over for good
1 comment:
IT has become commoditized. Biotech, energy, aerospace and other more valued-added engineering fields are the future. Whether or not Indians can move in that direction remains to be seen.
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