Friday, May 25, 2012

council on foreign relations: INDIA'S STATES: A SILVER LINING AMID ECONOMIC GLOOM

may 24th, 2012 CE

these people have a lot of influence on US foreign policy, esp. democratic.

note how feigenbaum, in a generally sensible article, cannot bring himself to point out gujarat's success story! only bihar and odisha! <rueful grimace>

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: Ram Narayanan
Date: Sat, May 19, 2012 at 12:30 AM
Subject: INDIA'S STATES: A SILVER LINING AMID ECONOMIC GLOOM
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http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2012/05/17/india-s-states-a-silver-lining-amid-economic-gloom/

EAST ASIA FORUM 

India’s states: a silver lining amid economic gloom 

May 17th, 2012 

Author: Evan A. Feigenbaum, CFR

In recent months, there has been little but gloom about India’s economic prospects in the financial markets, for the following six very good reasons:

First, India’s tumultuous politics have, from a corporate perspective, stalled essential reforms. Tax, pension and FDI reforms have made little headway under the United Progressive Alliance government, and parliamentary business has been tied up in knots as the leading national and regional parties squabble.

Second, there has been mixed news from the capital markets. Inbound FDI was higher in 2011 than over the same period in 2010, but Mumbai’s SENSEX stock index was the world’s worst major performer in 2011. And the rupee has been among Asia’s worst-performing currencies, floundering amid fiscal problems, not least India’s current account deficit and persistent concerns about capital flows. These factors recently led Standard & Poor’s to downgrad India’s credit rating.

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India’s states, then, are increasingly masters of their own fate. And those most likely to succeed will be those that also recognise the need for good governance. After all, good governance turns out to be smart politics: while India has seen the highest rates of anti-incumbency of any democratic country in the world, there are now strong signs that this trend is slowing. This is especially true at the state level, where governments that have successfully improved governance, for example in Bihar and Orissa, have held on to power. Strong managers and competent chief ministers have, in some places, delivered striking results. And the good news is that such improvements should be good for growth and, ultimately, for investment too.

Even A. Feigenbaum is Adjunct Senior Fellow for East, Central and South Asia at the Council on Foreign Relations 

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