"An Interview on the Egyptian Revolt: I'm Worried That Others Aren't Worried," Barry Rubin

jan 29th, 2011

is egypt going to end up with a fundie government? pretty likely. just like iran.

---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: GLORIA Center <administrator@gloria-center.org>
Date: Sat, Jan 29, 2011 at 5:32 PM
Subject: "An Interview on the Egyptian Revolt: I'm Worried That Others Aren't Worried," Barry Rubin
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An Interview on the Egyptian Revolt: I'm Worried That Others Aren't Worried

By Barry Rubin

January 29, 2011

http://www.gloria-center.org/gloria/2011/01/interview-on-egyptian-revolt

1) How do you judge the Egyptian protests?
It is tempting to see this as a revolution that will bring down the regime. But Egypt is not Tunisia. And while the demonstrations are passionate it is not clear that the numbers of participants are huge. If the elite and the army hold together they could well prevail, perhaps by removing Mubarak to save the regime. We should be cautious in drawing conclusions.

2) Do you see the threat of an Islamist takeover by the Ikhwan?
So far the uprising has not been led by the Muslim Brotherhood. But it is the only large organized opposition group. It is hard to see how it would not be the leading force after a while. The leadership would have to decide that it is facing a revolutionary situation and that this is the moment for an all-out effort. But if it does so and fails there will be a terrible repression and the group will be crushed. It appears that the Brotherhood is joining the protests but has not made its basic decision yet. In the longer term if the regime is completely overthrown I do believe the Brotherhood will emerge as the leader and perhaps the ruler of the country. 

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