Stratfor Sees Indo-Pak War Within Days

Stratfor claims it sees an Indian attack on Pak within days. Let's look at some possible outcomes:

1) If India is able to inflict significant damage on Pak without the latter mounting any significant response, then it would amount to a major psychological breakthrough on the subcontinent. Once we see how easy it is, then from that point onwards we'd be much more willing to resort to direct military pressure on Pak. Congress might also be able to use a military victory to considerable advantage in the upcoming elections. At the same time, if Zardari's govt is humiliated, he might end up sharing the fate of the ousted Nawaz, if not that of his own father-in-law. Perhaps the US might even like seeing the Pak military back in charge again, since the latter would again be out in front and facing the additional burden of public expectations/pressures, rather than ruling comfortably from the shadows as they normally prefer to do. This might again make them more vulnerable to US pressure. Kayani would be forced to walk the same tightrope as Musharraf did, eventually suffering a similar fate as his predecessor.

2) If Pakistan is able to fend off some half-hearted Indian attack, and still continue laughing in India's face while making New Delhi look impotent, then Islamabad's intransigence will deepen, with its leaders turning a blind eye as hardliners take advantage in staging further jihadi attacks on India in the future. Congress and its American patron can be relied upon to try and claim anything as a victory, no matter how good or bad the outcome, but their electoral prospects would be hit hard if a military operation fails -- especially if there are more follow-up terror attacks.

To me, it seems more likely #2 than #1, as India's military preparations don't look too heavy. I'm thinking that the US has tried to broker a "face-saving" solution for Congress, whereby the latter get to launch some minimal attack that Pakistan will accept, with both sides agreeing not to let it spiral out of control. Then each can respectively go in front of their voters and claim it as a victory. Manmohan will be able to say he "gave Pakistan a fitting punishment" while Zardari will say he valiantly "repulsed the Evil Kaffirs." US officials would echo the claims of each puppet, as they visit each capitol in turn. The more obvious the farce is, the more AlQaeda and Lashkar will smell blood, whetting their appetite for more repeat operations.