Tuesday, June 19, 2012

2 New Coups: Egypt and Pakistan

In Egypt, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces has declared that it will govern its own affairs, and isn't answerable to elected political leaders, thus rendering the latest election results moot. In Pakistan, the Supreme Court has declared the current Presidency invalid, dismissing Gilani from office.

Both of these events may raise India's value to the US. Pakistan's coup against the Prime Minister once again puts the army squarely in charge, with Gilani's likely replacement being army-backed Imran Khan. That means less flexibility from Pakistan towards the US, thus forcing the latter to turn increasingly towards India. Egypt's coup means the continuation of dictatorship in that country, and likewise the global jihadi struggle against it. AlQaeda won't be going away any time soon, and more of them will be showing up in the Pashtun lands of northern Pakistan and southern Afghanistan for a long time to come. This again limits US ability to wash its hands of the AfPak region.

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