From: sanjeev nayyar
Date: Wed, Feb 13, 2013 at 1:40 PM
Subject: The ghost of Gwadar by amit verma in TRIBUNE + Pak based terrorist groups in Burma
To: sgmail
The ghost of Gwadar
Chinese control alarming for India
by Amit Kumar 13/2/13 - http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20130213/edit.htm#4
The ghost of Gwadar is back, looming large again as China gears up to assume operational control of this strategic deep sea port close to the Strait of Hormuz. The recent decision of the Pakistani Cabinet to transfer the functional responsibility for this port from the Port of Singapore Authority (PSA) to a Chinese company (China's Overseas Port Holding) has sent alarming signals to India as this port has larger strategic implications. India is concerned as the port offers an exceptional much-desired strategic depth not only to Pakistan but also cements China's foothold in the Indian Ocean region.
The move is a win-win situation for both Pakistan and China. For Pakistan, the Chinese takeover serves the purpose of closer Sino-Pak economic cooperation and possibly a greater engagement on security issues. A fully operational Gwadar port means the end of near-total dependence on a relatively vulnerable Karachi. Even prior to the completion, Pakistan had started considering Gwadar as an important naval base after Karachi and Ormara in an attempt to improve Pakistan's maritime security posture.
Karachi, which lies about 470 km east of Gwadar, was effectively blockaded during the India-Pakistan war of 1971. Gwadar, located much further to the west, away from the Indian coast, will certainly provide a safe alternative for Pakistan to improve military flexibility.
For the Chinese, Gwadar has the strategic significance of being close to the Strait of Hormuz. The Gwadar-Karakoram link road will offer strategic access to the Indian Ocean as well as greater economic benefits to its restive Xinjiang province. It will also allow Beijing to ensure better security of its energy shipments along the existing maritime links and oil imports from the Gulf to the Xinjiang region through overland.
Perhaps, the proposed multi-modal Gwadar-Kashgar road, rail and gas- oil pipeline links will put to rest the much discussed China's Malacca dilemma. Besides, on the security front with a listening post, China will be able to monitor US naval activities in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Aden, activities of the Indian Navy and future India-US cooperation in the Arabian Sea.
China is investing an enormous amount of money and muscle power to widen the Karakoram highway, and there is a plan to connect Gwadar with this strategic highway. This 1300-km highway running from Kashgar in western China to Havelian, located in Abbottabad district near Islamabad, is set to be transformed from a dusty and bumpy road to a smooth and bustling mountain highway. The highway also aims to augment the Chinese influence in Central Asia and the Middle East. In the coming years, the link would act as resource-rich Central Asia's gateway to the Indian Ocean. The newly constructed dry port at Sost (Afiyatabad), just a few kilometres away from the Khunjerab pass on the Karakoram Highway, has the potential to act as an entrepot for the Central Asian Republics.
Besides the road links, China and Pakistan are also planning to build a railway link between Xinjiang and Gwadar, almost parallel to the Karakoram Highway. The proposed railway line runs from Kashgar to Havelilian and is expected to join Pakistan's railway network for further connection to Gwadar. This rail link is not only aimed for economic benefits, but also to carry oil from the Persian Gulf to Xinjiang in case the pipeline option turns out unfeasible.
Energy transportation through the comparatively secure Gwadar-Xinjiang overland corridor would always be an easier and faster option for China. The distance from Kashgar to Gwadar through the overland route is about 1000 miles while the present oil shipments from the Gulf region cover a distance of more than 3500 miles in reaching to the east coast of China through the Malacca Straits.
An apprehensive India, soon after the commencement of the Gwadar project, decided to help Iran in developing the Chabahar port. This port, located in southeastern Iran, is the only Iranian port which has direct access to the Indian Ocean. Chabahar, connecting Afghanistan to the Persian Gulf waters, could be a good alternative to the Gwadar and Karachi ports being a low cost option for Afghanistan and Central Asia to reach the warmer waters of the Indian Ocean.
In 2003, a trilateral agreement was signed between India, Iran and Afghanistan in infrastructural development. Under this, Iran was to build a highway from Chabahar to the Afghanistan border and India was assigned to develop road connectivity between Delaram (a city on the Iran-Afghanistan border) and Zaranj (capital of Nimruz province of Afghanistan). Despite the existing flux in Afghanistan, India has already completed 213-kilometre Zaranj-Delaram road while progress from the Iranian side is unexpectedly slow. In addition, India is also engaged in helping Iran to upgrade the Chabahar-Milak rail road.
There is a common perception that the US may agree for greater cooperation with India to balance the growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean region, but may also disagree on India's policy to joining hands with Iran. But despite her reservation on India-Iran cooperation, the US has come out in support of the recent (August 2012) trilateral agreement among India, Iran and Afghanistan to expedite the on-going Chabahar port project.
In addition to the Chabahar port development, New Delhi must look to other alternatives to sustain the existing balance in the region. Augmenting naval capabilities, strengthening India-US naval cooperation as well as engaging other major powers and small littorals should be the priorities for New Delhi. Considering Chinese ambitions, it is imperative for India to make a sagacious move to balance China and maintain her traditional influence in the Indian Ocean littoral states.
In response of China's growing naval activity, search for reliable maritime access in the Indian Ocean has now become imperative for India. In addition, India is required to improve the dilapidated border road and rail infrastructure otherwise the prevailing disparities with China may be one of the causes for unrest in the border states in the near future. And above all, New Delhi should learn from the Chinese ability to convert strategic assets into economic opportunities.
The writer is an Associate Fellow at the National Maritime Foundation, New Delhi.
sanjeev nayyar
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