disaster: bulletin of atomic scientists on india's and pakistan's and china's stockpiles

18th nov 2009

on the anniversary of the last stand of 13th kumaon in chushul, ladakh, in 1962, here comes grim news. india's arsenal is smaller than pakistan's, and the latter is growing its exponentially. the bulletin of atomic scientists (the guys with the doomsday clock) is pretty respected and not very biased. (hat tip to brahma chellaney on twitter)

not only is india defenseless against a plausible chinese first strike (not having any missiles capable of reaching beijing or shanghai), it is increasingly going to be the case that pakisan can afford a first strike and knock out delhi, mumbai and bangalore without worrying too much about the consequences in return. there is no teeth in india's potential second strike.

this is where india's wise leaders, in their wisdom, have got us, the much-ballyhooed nuclear deal of course will further cap even this capability. kevin rudd swore he won't give india uranium without NPT, for instance. and the not-so-subtle pressure to sign NPT, CTBT, FMCT, etc. continue apace.

india has no deterrence. it is fair to say india is screwed.

what india really needs is twice china's arsenal, ie about 700 warheads, as we have to face, as it were, two chinas (one beyond tibet and the other west of PoK). and we badly need ICBMs to deliver them. we need the 2x because unless we can cause 100 million han casualties, china wouldn't even notice. 100 million would cause them to lose face.

it is pretty clear now that india's hydrogen bomb claims were exaggerated, and by abjuring further testing, we will never be able to get better weaponry.

pakistan doesn't need to test, as they get tested chinese components that they just need to assemble.

it is very clear that china *is* the enemy. pakistan would fold if china were deterred. and let's not expect any help from the US. they stood by and twiddled their thumbs when china gave pak 2 full bombs in 1982, with the apparent approval of the CIA. (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/12/AR2009111211060.html)

Chellaney 

Study by Norris & Kristensen shows India, with Asia's oldest nuclear program, has the world's smallest nuclear arsenal: 

http://ow.ly/DiR9

Chellaney 

What the study shows is that Pakistan has overtaken India, even as the latter doesn't have a single Beijing-reachable missile in deployment.

Chellaney 

To read how Pakistan is frenetically expanding its nuclear-weapon capabilities across the board, see 

http://ow.ly/DiYZ

 by the same authors

http://ow.ly/DiR9