Brahma Chellaney opines on what India's next moves should be on J&K:
https://chellaney.net/2019/08/08/indias-real-test-begins-now-after-the-bold-jk-move/
I think it's pretty much guaranteed that Pak will try to start an 'intifada' or mass-uprising type of insurgency in J&K. They will stoke that to the maximum, because they have no other cards to play against us. They'll also try to stoke up Khalistan, since that's nextdoor to Kashmir, and other places to a lesser extent. Once the Pak-sponsored agitation gets underway, the anti-Modi media in the country will work to quickly convert the narrative from "Modi victory" into "look how that Modi has screwed things up again".
We'd better be prepared to stoke up Khyber-Pakhtunwa, Balochistan, Karachi, etc to convince them of the reciprocal cost. And we should target CPEC to show China that Pak's provocateur behaviour will only undermine China's strategic trade plans.
Trump's indicated his willingness to throw the Afghan govt under a bus in the interest of reaching a deal with Pak. New Delhi's actions on J&K have been part of a pre-emptive response to that. Another part of the pre-emptive response may require coordinating with the Afghan govt to mobilize Pashtuns on the Pak side of the Durand Line. The current Afghan govt would have little to lose in going all-out on this, when the alternative is their wholesale ouster.
No comments:
Post a Comment