the narrow victory for the bjp is the best outcome, i think. after all the bhageeratha prayatnam the fact that they had to squeak through is a warning signal that suggests several things:
1. they have the urban vote, which has recovered from demonetization and GST, but that's not enough
2. they are losing the rural vote, because the vikas is not reaching them, and a friend told me, verbatim: "the farmer belt in gujarat rejected modi en masse. we know this from bt cotton work and the mess niti ayog is making wrt agri"
3. if they had won big, allegations of EVM fraud would have been louder, but they are now muted
4. it's not a vote for congress, but we can see that they're not to be written off even with that rahul heading it. it's no different from that sonia heading it, it has powerful patrons including #breakingindia types, has the babus, judges etc in their pockets still
5. the muslim vote is solidly behind congress as usual. fragmenting the hindu vote with caste politics is effective still, and the hindu charade by rahul hasn't necessarily hurt them.
6. hindu issues may well be further pushed down the pile (RTE, 370, hindu temples out of govt clutches) as that is stuff the urban voter cares about, and the urban voter is with the BJP anyway
7. we'll probably see a slew of rural-oriented sops and giveaways and waivers in the run up to the next set of polls
8. it would be a bad idea to bring forward the 2019 polls to 2018 to link it to state polls (we know what happened in 2004). make efforts for the synchronization, but let the deadline be after 2019
9. now's the time to use this as an excuse to get rid of poor performers in government and clean up babudom
1. they have the urban vote, which has recovered from demonetization and GST, but that's not enough
2. they are losing the rural vote, because the vikas is not reaching them, and a friend told me, verbatim: "the farmer belt in gujarat rejected modi en masse. we know this from bt cotton work and the mess niti ayog is making wrt agri"
3. if they had won big, allegations of EVM fraud would have been louder, but they are now muted
4. it's not a vote for congress, but we can see that they're not to be written off even with that rahul heading it. it's no different from that sonia heading it, it has powerful patrons including #breakingindia types, has the babus, judges etc in their pockets still
5. the muslim vote is solidly behind congress as usual. fragmenting the hindu vote with caste politics is effective still, and the hindu charade by rahul hasn't necessarily hurt them.
6. hindu issues may well be further pushed down the pile (RTE, 370, hindu temples out of govt clutches) as that is stuff the urban voter cares about, and the urban voter is with the BJP anyway
7. we'll probably see a slew of rural-oriented sops and giveaways and waivers in the run up to the next set of polls
8. it would be a bad idea to bring forward the 2019 polls to 2018 to link it to state polls (we know what happened in 2004). make efforts for the synchronization, but let the deadline be after 2019
9. now's the time to use this as an excuse to get rid of poor performers in government and clean up babudom
2 comments:
Rajeev
Your comments may prove prescient and I especially agree that having elections before 2019 may prove disastrous. Unfortunately, Modi is mostly surrounded by bunglers, yes men, and traitors. Unlike more sanguine people, I am almost certain that 2019 is going to end up like 2004 as the same patterns are repeating. Here are my two cents on what needs to be done:
1. Ease up on enforcement of GST and lower the rates.
2. suspend this Aadhaar nonsense.
3. Cut out micromanagement and harassment of small businesses, and traders. The focus should be on tackling big ticket corruption.
4. Cut out announcement of grandiose sounding schemes and focus on execution. For this, put sector experts in charge of work, and not IAS officers.
5. Put in place a slew of populist measures for farmers, and lower electricity tariffs in BJP run states. No need to bother about fiscal prudence for any of this. The next government won't anyway.
6. Get a new PR agency in. People are getting sick of Modi's speeches and posturing. A softer demeanour is needed and the current bluster is not being appreciated. If people are facing problems with things like GST, it does not help the government to dismiss their concerns. In fact a slightly apologetic and receptive tone may help.
7. Do not over-negotiate with allies. E.g. Shiv Sena.
8. Get "insurances" in place expecting a Congress led government in 2019. Perhaps there will be an out-of-the-box surprise opposition frontman like Kejriwal, or even Nitish Kumar who may defect at an opportune moment.
9. Kick out Yashwant Sinha, Jayant Sinha, and Shatrughan Sinha.
10. Keep special watch on EVM fraud which is likely to be repeated as it was in 2004.
11. Project fear and consequences that the sickular parties may return to power, rather than projecting overconfidence. People need to be reminded of how truly evil these parties are.
good set of suggestions, carborundum. it's time for more PR, for sure. and there are several ministers who need to be dropped: eg. javdekar and maneka. there will also be many other 'great white hopes' thrown up by the cong and their handlers. remember, we have so far had: rahul, kejriwal, kanhaiya, nitish, hardik, to mention just a few names.
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