Wednesday, December 19, 2012
World religious demographics
Faiths and the faithless
The world's religious make-up
RELIABLE data on the age and whereabouts of the religious and irreligious are hard to come by, which makes a new report on the topic from the Pew Research Centre welcome. Among its many findings is that Jews and Buddhists make the ...
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2012/12/daily-chart-13
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How Walmart Bribed Its Way in Mexico
Wal-Mart de Mexico was not the reluctant victim of a corrupt culture that insisted on bribes as the cost of doing business. Nor did it pay bribes merely to speed up routine approvals. Rather, Wal-Mart de Mexico was an aggressive and creative corrupter, offering large payoffs to get what the law otherwise prohibited. It used bribes to subvert democratic governance — public votes, open debates, transparent procedures. It used bribes to circumvent regulatory safeguards that protect Mexican citizens from unsafe construction. It used bribes to outflank rivals.
The latest Newyork Times story describes $765,000 in bribes that helped Walmex build a refrigerated distribution center in an environmentally fragile area where electricity was scarce and smaller developers were turned away. It also describes in detail how Walmex allegedly paid $52,000 to change a zoning map so it could open a store near the ancient pyramids in Teotihuacan.Reuters: Wal-Mart seen facing sizeable fines in U.S. bribery probe
Tuesday, December 18, 2012
why the 'no electronics on planes' ban is a crock
technically, the problem with cellphones is with cellular towers on the ground, not with "affecting the on board navigation" as the flight-attendant always parrots.
Prepare for the Next GREAT WAR by bharat verma in IDR
From: sanjeev nayyar
Today, India is ringed by turbulent states – Pakistan (land boundary with India 3,310 kms in the northwest), Nepal (land boundary with India 1,751 kms in the north), Bangladesh (land boundary with India 4,095 kms in the southeast) and Myanmar (land boundary with India 1,463 kms in the northeast). Turbulence has percolated through India’s porous borders in the form of arms and narcotics to finance insurgents, militants, terrorists and religious fundamentalists.
India remains Pakistan’s primary target and operating ground for Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist groups who infiltrate through Jammu & Kashmir (J&K), Nepal and Bangladesh and carry out anti-Indian activities with impunity.
As a rising economic power dependent almost entirely on foreign energy supplies, a time may come when India has to project its military power to protect and preserve the energy resources from Central and West Asia, and Africa.
Nepal is vulnerable to China’s influence. Its extremists have linkages with the People’s War Group (PWG) in India. In its bid to expand its influence, the PWG has carved a corridor ringing the states of Andhra Pradesh-Madhya Pradesh-Chhattisgarh-Orissa-West Bengal-Jharkhand-Bihar.
This endless internal turbulence in India is also inter-linked with external factors. To the North, India shares a 3,440 km long border with China, which can pose the entire spectrum of conventional, nuclear and missile threats. It can also influence and use as proxy India’s neighbors to weigh India down in every possible way.
In short, India’s 14,058 km long land frontier is impacted by a perpetually hostile or semi-hostile environment. Indian security stands threatened by demographic assault, arms and drug smuggling, and the safe havens that the insurgents have in India. Fundamentalist-religious groups in Bangladesh under Pakistani tutelage, West Asian finance and China’s patronage have synergized sufficiently to add to India’s security headache.
The grim reality is that the unending turbulence will continue to afflict our land and sea frontiers and airspace.
The Indian Temperament
By nature, the average Indian is highly individualistic and an entrepreneur. In every endeavor, his calculation is simply based on, “What’s in it for me?” He does not have the time or the inclination to actively get involved with the intricacies of the nation’s security.
India remains Pakistan’s primary target and operating ground for Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist groups …
This kind of entrepreneurial society requires a steel frame of military, naval and air power to ensure that India’s accommodative temperament and societal characteristic of gentleness remains protected from the turbulent violence that assaults the values of our democratic polity.
India’s Armed Forces
On attaining Independence in 1947, India inherited possibly the best instrument of war in Asia – a fine battle-ready military machine with a formidable reputation of winning wars in distant lands. Britain had employed it skillfully for over a century to sustain her empire and treasured it as the jewel in its crown.
In the years after Independence, India’s Army has been unendingly deployed for internal policing tasks to cope with the complex security situation. This deployment has kept the Union of India physically intact. But it is sad that 60 years after Independence, the stability of India still depends directly on the stability of the Indian Army. Field Marshal Wavell who was India’s British Viceroy in 1946, was prophetic when he said “… the stability of the Indian Army may perhaps be a deciding factor in the future of India.”
Making India’s Armed Forces Younger
For a number of reasons, and despite considerable efforts, the Armed Forces remain short of the manpower they need. It is imperative that this manpower shortage be removed speedily before the system buckles under the ageing profile of its leadership. There is only one viable strategy to attract the kind of talent that is needed and that is to assure military personnel of assured lateral induction into the para-military and police forces, the intelligence services and the civil administration.
Boeing Apache
Unfortunately, a consensus has not been achieved that “Lateral Induction” is the best way to attract India’s young but savvy population to the tough profession of arms, where risk-to-life is an everyday affair.
Major benefits will accrue from Lateral Induction. First, the transfer of highly disciplined, trained and skilled manpower to the civil set-up will contribute towards the creation of a ‘discipline culture’ in the country. Second, the superior training standards of lateral inductees will aid civil and para-military forces in combating terrorism and internal violence.
However, placing a large segment of a young Army on the land borders cannot entirely ensure the security of India. There are two aspects to it.
India has the potential and the prerequisites of becoming a great power within the next few decades, provided it can dovetail its foreign, economic and military objectives and mainstream its military power.
First, if a football team defends only its half of the field, it is certain that an adversary determined to create mischief, short of going to war, will create opportunities for its irregular forces (jihadis) to score goals through infiltration, smuggling and creeping invasions. The hostile environment that impacts India’s long frontiers requires that the role of military power to defend strategic frontiers must be firmly embedded in India’s foreign policy.
The second aspect is the need for political will to project the power of the Armed Forces beyond the Indian subcontinent to secure the sea-lanes for external trade and ensure the security of imported energy supplies.
India’s Place in Asia
India’s geo-strategic location with its 7,500 kms long peninsular coastline jutting into the Indian Ocean makes India a continental as well as a maritime power.
…without a ruthless winning attitude, India’s multi-religious and multi-cultural society cannot survive endless undermining by disaffected elements.
India impacts directly on East, West and Central Asia. As a rising economic power dependent almost entirely on foreign energy supplies, a time may come when India has to project its military power to protect and preserve the energy resources from Central and West Asia, and Africa. For India, with its pacifist temperament, this may sound imperial. But without a ruthless winning attitude, India’s multi-religious and multi-cultural society cannot survive endless undermining by disaffected elements.
The world has already recognized that with its democratic institutions, its liberal philosophy and its unique strategic location, India’s influence will extend beyond South Asia and directly affect Asia’s well being.
Dovetailing Foreign-Economic-Military Objectives
A nation’s foreign policy is dependent primarily on the strength of its economic and military power. The ability and the will to wield military power ruthlessly, to defend and advance national interests, when combined with the capacity and resolve to create wealth, constitute the proven route for every aspirant seeking recognition as an eminent power.
…to preserve its values, India needs to create an international alliance with like minded technologically surplus ‘far abroad’ to out maneuver the inimical intentions of the ‘near abroad’.
India has the potential and the prerequisites of becoming a great power within the next few decades, provided it can dovetail its foreign, economic and military objectives and mainstream its military power.
The crucial question is whether India will be a surrogate power or be a ‘great power’?
Ostensibly, our national objectives are to have a peaceful neighborhood. What should be the strategy to achieve it? Statements like “…stable and secure neighbors are in India’s interest” are well meant. The fundamental question however is – “Will India’s neighbors ever be stable and secure?” Appeasement of neighbors cannot constitute a strategy for any country.
India’s larger objective in Asia is to emerge as a geo-economic hub that can integrate and influence its extended neighborhood through mutually beneficial economic linkages and military relationships. As a benevolent power that has no external territorial interests, India is uniquely located – geographically and culturally to play this role effectively. India’s free media can be intelligently harnessed to further these national objectives and develop the complementarities that influence Asia.
To attain eminence in Asia, India needs to move simultaneously on three axes. These are India-West Asia, India-Southeast Asia and India-Central Asia. Of these, the critical one is the India-Afghanistan-Iran-Russia axis. Today, Russia is reacting firmly to intruders into its neighborhood. Her economic and military resurgence presents an opportunity for a relationship which would lend stability to the region.
…as the second largest consumer of oil and gas in Asia, the assurance of uninterrupted energy supplies is a vital factor in India’s security calculus
Moreover, as the second largest consumer of oil and gas in Asia, the assurance of uninterrupted energy supplies is a vital factor in India’s security calculus. By 2010, a substantial amount of oil and gas will be sourced from Central Asia. This resource-rich region will succumb to fundamentalist-religious Talibanisation if India and like-minded countries do not pre-empt it. In such an eventuality, American oil corporations will be expelled, particularly with the Chinese gaining ground and occupying positions that could dictate the future agenda in Central Asia. It is therefore timely for American capitalists to join hands with Indian counterparts in joint ventures.
Create Mutually Beneficial International Alliances
India’s ‘near abroad’ is under unprecedented turmoil. Pakistan is almost split into two states. The Pakistan Army controls one part and the other it ceded to Radical Islam. The Pakistan Army appears to be under retreat. In Bangladesh the war between Pakistan backed radical Islam threatens to undermine the present regime. Maoists in Nepal look up to China. Beijing successfully out maneuvered New Delhi’s influence in the latter’s backyard. These regimes being authoritarian in one way or the other have more in common amongst themselves than a multi-cultural democratic India.
They are also technology deficit regressive states. Therefore, to preserve its values, India needs to create an international alliance with like minded technologically surplus ‘far abroad’ to out maneuver the inimical intentions of the ‘near abroad’. The international community including Russia in the near future, will be compelled to wage the next Great War against the forces of Radical Islam threatening the world at large. As the core of Jihad is located in a state wielding nuclear weapons, the evolving scenario appears to be more threatening than witnessed during Nazi Germany. New Delhi’s support in the looming next Great War will be a critical element for swift victory for democracies and others.
India’s strategy must be to strengthen existing friendly relationships, while decisively cementing mutually advantageous new relationships in the favorable geo-political scenario now emerging.
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Why LIMO LIBS hate Modi by swapandasgupta
From: sanjeev nayyar
By the afternoon of Thursday, December 20, two things will be pretty apparent to the people of India.
First, it will be clear whether or not the electorate of Gujarat continues to retain faith in the leadership of Chief Minister Narendra Modi. With a 70 per cent turnout (in Phase 1 of the poll), a spirited election campaign that was centred on the State Government’s performance over 11 years, and little chance of a hung Assembly, the answer to this question should be unambiguous.
The second issue will touch on the future of Indian politics. If the BJP is successful in meeting the combined onslaught of the liberal intelligentsia, the mainstream media, the local leadership of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, the Gujarat Parivartan Party, the Central Government and the local Congress, there will be compelling pressure on the National Democratic Alliance (which, naturally, includes the BJP) to discard the absurd idea of ‘collective leadership’ and anoint Modi as its prime ministerial candidate for the next general election.
I use the phrase ‘compelling pressure’ with some pre-mediation because I am almost certain that the process of declaring Modi the first among equals will not be without hiccups. Such a momentous step in a polity where succession planning is both non-existent and bereft of institutional structures is never without hiccups. Assuming Modi passes the December 20 test, the coming months will be delight for the media as a multitude of veterans, rivals and unnamed ‘sources’ will air their misgivings of such an ‘extreme’ step.
There will invariably be questions raised about Modi’s suitability to move from local to national politics-as if participation in State politics automatically negates a politician’s ability to play in a larger arena. There will be doubts raised over Modi’s temperament: can a man used to being the supreme boss of a one-party Government adapt to the infuriating complexities of coalition politics? There will also be the Nagpur question: will the RSS leadership allow such a towering individual to put the parent organisation in the shade? And, finally, there will be the inevitable Muslim question: can India be ruled by a man whose very name is anathema to the Muslim minority, at least outside Gujarat?
None of these posers can be brushed aside as irrelevant. No doubt the issues will be raised by people who have been opposed to Modi for the past 10 years and who are still hopeful that a ‘silent undercurrent’ will stop the Chief Minister’s juggernaut in Gujarat itself. But they are powerful people who wield considerable clout in the Establishment of what Modi derisively calls the ‘Delhi Sultanate’. For them, Modi is not merely someone they disagree with; he is an enemy. They would rather countenance the indefinite continuation of Gandhi-Vadra rule and the perpetuation of cronyism than imagine an India in the hands of an outlander from Vadnagar. Modi threatens their ‘idea of India’.
What we have witnessed and perhaps will continue to witness till the last voter in the next general election has pressed the EVM button is a form of class war. It is a war not about economic philosophies or even about something as nebulous as modernity. Looked at from every conceivable angle, the Gujarat over which Modi has presided for the past 11 years is a showcase for resurgent India. Nor is there any fear that Modi will pave the way for some perverse, backward-looking and insular society. Trade, technology and even globalisation have been central to the Gujarati mind, a reason why that society never took very kindly to the Nehruvian way.
No, the class war centres on the exercise of power, control and clout. A small example may suffice. Last week, a group of influential media people-known in rarefied circles as the Limousine Liberals-travelled to Gujarat, courtesy an international investment house, to do a spot of election tourism. In the recent past they travelled to Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal to observe the ‘real India’. Anyway, to cut a long story short, the Limo Libs are always given an audience by the leaders of the main parties. In Gujarat, the Congress rolled out the red carpet for them and I am informed (but am yet to verify) that the party’s heir apparent also found time to exchange notes with the group. The only exception was Modi. He encountered them at one of his public rallies, acknowledged them with a polite Namaste and went about his main business.
It is not for me to say whether Modi missed an opportunity to charm those outside his natural constituency-they are itching to be wooed-or whether he thought that spending time with those who are intractably opposed to him the individual is a waste of time. The point is that the likes of the Limo Libs are inherently ill at ease with a man who challenges the existing power structure without inhibition and with aggression.
This is where Modi differs from a Atal Behari Vajpayee. Despite being the so-called “right man in the wrong party”, Vajpayee sought to co-opt a section of the Establishment and I have no doubt that his cultivated ambiguity and Brahminical pedigree came in quite hand. Modi by contrast has always banked on pressure from below to get his way. His politics is based on raw energy. This is what the upholders of the status quo find frightening and unbearable.
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WHY INDIA NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR THE DECLINE OF THE WEST
From: Vaidyanathan R
Date: Mon, Dec 17, 2012 at 3:33 PM
Subject: WHY INDIA NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR THE DECLINE OF THE WEST
To: Vaidyanathan R
http://prof-vaidyanathan.com/2012/12/15/why-india-needs-to-prepare-for-the-decline-of-the-west/
WHY INDIA NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR THE DECLINE OF THE WEST
December 15, 2012 · by Prof. R. Vaidyanathan · in First Post
Two reports released this week in the US will have significant and far-reaching implications for countries like India. These reports are: Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, by the US National Intelligence Council, and US Strategy for a Post-Western World: Envisioning 2030, by the Atlantic Council.
These reports should be read and digested by countries like India as we need to prepare strategies to deal with the post-Anglo-Saxon era. The reports are available.
Firstpost is no stranger to these ideas. In an earlier article, Decline of the West, we had expected the decline to accelerate in the coming years. The decline stems not only from the shift in economic power, as the above two reports suggest, but from a fall in societal values.
People are comforted near Sandy Hook Elementary School on Friday after a man killed 26 people, including 20 children. AP
Friday’s massacre of school children in Connecticut is yet another indicator of the loss of sovereignty of the family. The gunman could have come from a dysfunctional family system and gun culture is destroying the US social fabric.
In the earlier article, we had recalled the pioneering study of Angus Maddison for the OECD, in which he demonstrated that till 1820 India and China had nearly 50 percent of the global GDP before their decline started. From that point of view, we are “re-emerging markets” and not emerging markets. Nearly 200 years of western dominance are coming to a close, and, as predicted by Sri Aurobindo, “India will rise from the ruins of the western civilisation.”
The above mentioned two reports tell us something we always hesitate to believe till someone from the west confirms it for us. The reports indicate how China and India will be more powerful than the US by 2030. One of the reports also suggests that Asian cultures will supersede America’s and Europe’s in 20 years as the global middle class grows. But it also predicts that competition for resources, including food, space and water, will be fierce.
Five trends which will have far-reaching implications for the west and us are the following:
*The west’s problems are related to the decline of the family as an institution and household savings.
*Demography is increasing the proportion of old people in the population.
*Rising longevity is leading to a social security crisis which will bankrupt governments.
*The decline of the church and belief systems – both in Europe and US – could have major implications
*The Westphalia consensus about the sovereignty of nations which are not western/white is over.
These trends have not been adequately dealt with in the main reports possibly because they are focused more on economics, energy, etc. But the building blocks of any civilization start with the family, and this has gone for a six in the western world without alternate institutions emerging.
During the early nineties, more than 50 percent of global GDP, adjusted for purchasing power parity, was with the G7 countries (predominantly white/western), with the major emerging markets like India and China accounting for 36 percent. But this has already reversed. It is expected that the original G7 countries will have less than 30 percent of global GDP by 2020. Also, the forecast for growth rates in the coming years is either negative or a very low number.
The unemployment rate in many European countries like Spain and Greece is more than 20 percent and among youth (aged 16 to 24 years) it is nearing 50 percent. Europe had nearly 25 percent of the world population during World War I and now it is around 11 percent and expected to be 3-4 percent in another 20 years.
Britain has fallen out of love with marriage. The 2011 Census shows that the number of married people has fallen to 20.4 million, nearly 200,000 less than a decade ago. A quarter of the people in England and Wales are single, while the number of those cohabiting has risen from 9.8 percent of the population to 11.9 percent. Growing numbers of people are also choosing to divorce.
The breaking up of the family has put tremendous pressure on the state to sustain single parent/single women families and also the elderly. This has put their social security schemes – if at all funded – under strain.
Europe has become secular, which is a euphemism for renouncing or ignoring the church. For instance, the recent census in the UK has revealed that there has been a decline of 12 percent in people belonging to Christianity and 25 percent of the population said they had no faith – an increase from 15 percent a decade earlier.
The UK is also exhibiting tendencies in societal behavior more typical of third world countries. For instance, urinating in the streets is becoming a major issue and the town of Chester is using innovative ways to punish offenders like asking them to maintain local heritage sites.
The French are grappling with the issues of illegitimacy and failure of the family system. An ex-French law minster had simultaneous relationships with eight men and it is becoming difficult to ascertain who is the father of her kid. In another decade, many French kids may be able to identify their fathers only through DNA tests.
The USA is facing similar issues. In 2010, more than 50 percent of children were born out of wedlock and illegitimacy is the new norm. Among blacks, it is 75 percent and among Latinos more than 55 percent.
The US faces an unprecedented crisis since families have been nationalized and businesses privatized. Society has become dysfunctional. This year, more than half the births are of non- white children, giving rise to the possibility of the US becoming a non-white majority country in another 30 years when Spanish and Chinese could become major languages. This could have a tremendous impact among Mid-West and Southern Bible-thumpers like Rush Limbaugh. This could give rise to sharper social conflicts and open up the old civil war fault lines.
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal last year (10 October 2011), nearly half of US households received some form of government benefits like food stamps, subsidized housing, cash welfare or Medicare or Medicaid (the federal-state healthcare programme for the poor) or social security. The US is also a stock market economy where half the households have investments, and recent bank and corporate failures have hit them hard.
Under the circumstances India needs to strategize for the future.
We should recognize that for most of the Indian elite, their umbilical cords are linked to the west. Many of them are/were educated in the US or Europe, and most of them have their children studying or working there. Due to colonial genes, acceptance/recognition by the west is critical for average middle class Indians.
The danger is that we are going to buy their failed models when they are in decline. They will try to sell us everything they have, and we will buy because of our colonial genes. They will hire more Indians to head global companies as showpieces in order to penetrate our markets.
The reality, that the west is in decline and many of its institutions are failing, has still not struck us and we will continue to try and imitate them – including dysfunctional family systems. We should recognize that we are a civilization and not just a market. Today funds are in search of markets and not the other way round. Instead of heading global institutions, we should acquire them.
Civilisationally, we are nearer to the East than the West. We should take the lead along with others in the East to create alternative institutions to the World Bank, the IMF and the UN. The need is to recognize that the old debate about big business or big government is passé. Our ability to look beyond Marx and market into our thriving communities and bazaars will provide us answers to many issues.
Will India, as Aurobindo mentioned, rise from the ruins of the West?
_______________________________________
R.VAIDYANATHAN
PROFESSOR OF FINANCE
INDIAN INSTITUTE OF MANAGEMENT
BANNERGHATTA ROAD
BANGALORE
INDIA_560076