Tuesday, June 05, 2012

MMS: Yesss! Finally! We did it!

jun 4th, 2012 CE

yes, back to the nehruvian stalinist rate of growth. 

mission accomplished.  

every time chidambaram becomes FM, growth goes from 8% to 2% in short order (no, pranab cannot take all the credit for this). pc is a true bharat ratna. we should loan him out as 'assassin of national economies'. send him to the IMF or the world bank. he can be jeffrey sachs 2.0.

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From: K


http://in.news.yahoo.com/difficult-times-economy-says-manmohan-103351584--finance.html

Party hard, sleep tight.


my firstpost piece laments that anand's genius goes unrecognized by indian govt, media

jun 4th, 2012 CE

and we all know why. there's not much opportunity for the kkkangress to loot in chess. the russians have it all wrapped up.

and also, anand has the wrong name. if he were to change his name to viswanathan anand gandhi, he too would get a bharat ratna and get into the rajya sabha.

anyway, anand has the wrong name. 

Indians have become so accustomed to mediocrity that they don’t quite know what to do with a genuine hero and a real champion. The culture of chalta hai and taking short-cuts and muddling-through that Indians, as it were, absorb with mother’s milk, prevents people from recognising true merit and stupendous achievement. And there are also the usual suspects — the media — who would not recognise genuine-ness it were handed to them on a platter, and it jumped up and bit them on the nose.

Here is Viswanathan Anand, world chess champion for the fifth time, someone who stands at the very pinnacle of the sport. Tell me, in which other sport does India have — or has ever had — a world champion, especially one who dominates the field as Anand does? It is true that there have been occasional world champions in billiards and women’s weightlifting and women’s boxing, but they, too, have been slighted.

But chess, now that is the ultimate sporting test, the test of strategic insights and the endurance and fortitude in tough times: indeed, war by other means. Come to think of it, maybe that’s precisely why Indians don’t appreciate chess, because after all, these are the very areas where India is most deficient. Strategy? Hardly. Endurance? Hah! Fortitude? No, India is full of cry-babies, asking for privileges where none are due. And despite the valour of the armed forces, India has cut a sorry figure in its more recent wars, mostly because of a total lack of strategy on the part of the netas.

There is no appreciation of how difficult Anand’s path has been, and the odds that he has overcome to be the best of the best. AP

Thus, there is no appreciation of how difficult Anand’s path has been, and the odds that he has overcome to be the best of the best. First of all, there is the old Soviet/East Bloc stranglehold in chess: they do not like interlopers, as they see those from outside their system (that applies especially to non-whites, I would imagine). Second, Anand has achieved all this with absolutely no support, and in fact hostility from Indian apparatchiks.

So poor Viswanathan Anand, sort of like Abhimanyu in the chakravyuham, has had to, all by himself, fight the Soviets in their own den on their own terms. The fact that they are not keen on his winning the world championship yet again was highlighted when Anand played Topalev of Bulgaria a couple of years ago. European air travel was shut down because of a volcanic eruption, yet they wouldn’t postpone the championship; so Anand had to drive some 3,000 miles to get to Sofia, Bulgaria. But he had the last laugh: he won.

And what did Indian officialdom do to Anand? The Kapil Sibal HRD ministry alleged in 2008 that he was a Spanish citizen (because he spent much time there), and spoiled the award of an honorary doctorate to him (actually why should citizenship be a criterion for awarding a doctorate?). Most countries are delighted to grab a world-class chess player — see how Gata Kamsky moved from Russia to the US; Boris Gelfand from Russia to Israel, etc. — and here is Anand, who would be welcomed as a hero in at least dozen chess-loving nations, being actively encouraged to give up his Indian citizenship by these brutes in the HRD [sic] 

....

cyberwars: flame, stuxnet, obama's efforts, etc. from san jose mercury news

jun 4th, 2012 CE

the links may not work, but good summary:

Burning questions about Flame and cyberwar

By LEVI SUMAGAYSAY

I go away for a week and return to fighting words, or all kinds of talk about cyberwar. Early last week, there was the hot news about the Flame spyware found on computers in Iran and elsewhere in the Middle East. (See Quoted: ‘Flame’ cyber weapon is only the beginning.) Then, the New York Times reported Friday that when Barack Obama became president he ordered a stepping up of cyberattacks against Iran — codenamed Olympic Games — begun under previous President George W. Bush. The Stuxnet worm, which hit computer systems of an Iranian nuclear plant a few years ago and was discovered in 2010, is believed to have been a joint effort by Israel and the United States. (See Quoted: Of worms and war, Stuxnet and Iran.) Experts are saying Flame appears to be state-sponsored. Burning questions arise.

• What is the U.S. doing? The questions surrounding this issue are comparable to those related to the use of drones: Because there are no soldiers involved, is it OK to keep cyberwar secret? Who’s held accountable for what? What rules govern this new way of fighting? According to the NYT report, an unnamed Obama aide said the administration did not want to formulate a “grand theory for a weapon whose possibilities they were still discovering.”

How will the United States use this weapon in the future? In March, GMSV mentioned that former U.S. counterterrorism official Richard Clarke suggests that this nation isn’t being aggressive enough online. (See Doom and gloom: on hackers, China and cyberwar.)

• Should cyberwarfare be banned? That’s what Eugene Kaspersky of well-known online security firm Kaspersky Lab is advocating, according to a separate New York Times article. But could an international treaty — whose passage is probably a long shot — close the Pandora’s Box that has been opened by using computer code to wage war?

In addition, some are questioning Kaspersky’s motives and his relationship with the Russian government. One expert quoted by the NYT points to Russia’s known push for a ban on cyberwar and says, “this is a global diplomatic ploy by the Russians to take down a perceived area of U.S. military advantage.” NPR reports that other skeptics say the United Nations agency International Telecommunication Union, which asked Kaspersky to look into the malware, often reflects the interests of Russia and China.

• How does cyberwar, which has been said to be more cost-effective than a war with troops and guns and bullets, work? Besides wreaking havoc on an Iranian nuclear plant, it could also damage the infrastructure that powers our lives. The Washington Post over the weekend published a piece about threats to networked and in many cases unsecured industrial control systems (SCADA) such as power plants, water-treatment facilities, air-traffic control. Worst-case scenario is far from cheap, and could also be deadly. “Stuxnet marked a turning point for the entire automation industry, turning theoretical problems into headlines,” Raj Batra of Siemens told the Washington Post.

Monday, June 04, 2012

Indian Access to Space

India's space program has achieved a remarkable amount with very little funding:


Further evolution of the Indian space industry through public-private partnership, with the induction of private sector launch operators, might allow even further reduction of Indian cost of access to space. It will also help keep ISRO from becoming too big and bloated.

Harappan Sunset

"In the last 10,000 years, the Northern Hemisphere had the highest insolation (the solar energy received by the Earth from the sun) from 7,000 to 5,000 years ago, and since then insolation there decreased. All climate on Earth is driven by the sun, and so the monsoons were affected by the lower insolation, decreasing in force. This meant less rain got into continental regions affected by monsoons over time."

Eventually, these monsoon-based rivers held too little water and dried, making them unfavorable for civilization. Eventually, over the course of centuries, Harappans apparently fled along an escape route to the east toward the Ganges basin, where monsoon rains remained reliable.

This change would have spelled disaster for the cities of the Indus, which were built on the large surpluses seen during the earlier, wetter era. The dispersal of the population to the east would have meant there was no longer a concentrated workforce to support urbanism.

"Cities collapsed, but smaller agricultural communities were sustainable and flourished," Fuller said. "Many of the urban arts, such as writing, faded away, but agriculture continued and actually diversified."

Sunday, June 03, 2012

Francis Fukuyama on the Afghan exit route [declare victory and run like hell]

jun 3rd, 2012 CE

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From: B


The American Interest, May 31, 2012

Getting Out of Afghanistan

FRANCIS FUKUYAMA

President Obama’s signing of a strategic partnership agreement with President Karzai on May 1 and the ratification of a wind-down plan by NATO at its recent summit in Chicago in theory set the terms for the kind of presence the US will have after the “withdrawal” of US forces from that country in 2014. Of course, the US is not really going to withdraw by this date; it will leave behind Special Forces, drones, trainers, and other assets that will still give it residual military capabilities in Afghanistan. Nonetheless, the departure of the big bulge of forces that came in with Obama’s 2010 surge will be gone, and the US will consequently face a vastly diminished capacity to shape events on the ground.

It seems obvious that we need to start thinking through the political dimensions of a post-NATO Afghanistan, and specifically, what a negotiated settlement with the Taliban might look like. Among the dumber things Mitt Romney has said during the primary campaign (and there’s lots of competition for that) is that he doesn’t intend to negotiate with the Taliban, but to defeat them. Lots of luck. Political support for continuation of the war is vanishing daily in both parties, and regardless of who is elected president in November, a substantial US withdrawal will occur within the next few years. Until the election happens, there will be no overt discussion of what a political settlement might look like. But early 2013 will be a very late moment to begin thinking about this issue; better to begin now.

We can start by going back to basic US interests in Afghanistan. Our goals there have drifted over time and are now disconnected from any strategic purpose our presence may have once served.

The US invaded Afghanistan in the fall of 2001, quite legitimately, in order to dismantle the nearly two dozen large training bases that al-Qaida operated in that country, and from which the September 11 attacks were organized and run. This goal has been achieved already several years ago. Al-Qaida still exists, but the most dangerous parts of the organization are now in the tribal belt in Pakistan, or in Somalia, Yemen, and other places further afield. Their ability to reestablish themselves in Afghanistan will increase after a US withdrawal, but our residual air assets and Special Forces will very likely be more than sufficient to guarantee that that country will never become a major staging ground again. (At any rate, it won’t pose more of a threat than what we already face in Pakistan.)

So why are we continuing to fight the Taliban? The reasons are much clearer on their side than on ours. They are fighting us because NATO forces are occupying their country, setting up a presence in their villages and are perceived to be pulling the strings behind a weak and illegitimate government in Kabul. The Taliban at this point represents the religio- ethno-nationalism of the Pushtun communities in Afghanistan (religion, ethnicity, and nationalism are all intertwined in that part of the world today). As far as I can see they have no beef with the United States that would motivate them to attack us where we live, if we actually were to leave them alone. They cooperate with groups like the Haqqani network in Pakistan, but that’s because the Haqqanis are useful to them, and not because they share agendas. The Haqqanis are more a creature of the Pakistan’s intelligence services, our nominal ally.

Our reasons for fighting them are much more complex. We feel that we derive some marginal anti-terrorism benefit by being physically present in southern Afghanistan. The US military was given a counterinsurgency mission, and it doesn’t want to appear unable to complete it. But the real issue is a moral one: if we simply depart without providing a framework for stability in that country (much as we did after the Soviet withdrawal in 1989), Afghanistan is likely to return to chaos and yet another phase of the civil war that has been ongoing since the 1970s.

The United States has actually done a lot of good things in Afghanistan since 2001, in terms of building schools, educating boys and girls, and stimulating some economic development. In the process, we have enlisted many Afghan allies, telling them that if they signed up with us, we would protect them and make their lives better. If we leave these pro-Western groups to the Taliban, we will be repeating the same disgraceful pattern of intervention and subsequent betrayal that has played out in many of our previous Third World involvements, from Nicaragua in the 1930s to Vietnam. Laos, and Cambodia in the 1970s. So we have an obligation to try to create some stable balance in that country through political means.

If I am correct in assessing the Taliban’s basic motivations, then their main political objective should be to gain power in areas with large Pushtun populations. It is not clear that they would have a strong interest in trying to seize power in Kabul, as they did in the 1990s, nor is it evident that they would want to take on the Tajiks, Uzbeks, Hazaras, and other groups if they didn’t have to. The latter are all watching and waiting; the Northern Alliance could reconstitute itself as a fighting force pretty quickly if they felt a direct threat from the Taliban.

This means that any political settlement would have to be built around a strongly decentralized Afghanistan, in which there is a nominal government in Kabul, but in which the different regions are given a much higher degree of de jure autonomy than they have now. In this respect, the main obstacle to a political settlement is the 2004 constitution that came out of the Bonn agreement and the constitutional loya jirga. For reasons that are now only of historical interest, the parties to that process agreed to make Afghanistan on paper one of the most unitary, centralized states in the world. The president has the power to appoint provincial governors; the Karzai family’s control over Kandahar is one of the biggest complaints that southern Pushtuns have about present arrangements. (The constitution also enshrined a single non-transferrable vote electoral system, another feature that the international community should have tried to block back in 2004.) So it is conceivable that the Taliban might sign up to a system that gave them de facto political control of southern Afghanistan, leaving other parts of the country to the other ethnic groups.

There are at least five big problems in getting to this kind of settlement. The first is how to actually get around the 2004 constitution. One could try to call another loya jirga, but it is hard to see this coming about under present conditions of insecurity. Even if it could meet, it is not clear that it could come to a consensus on a new system; article 150 of the constitution mandates a two-thirds majority for any changes and gives Karzai a veto. It might be possible to leave the current constitution in place, and simply negotiate informal understandings that it would be in effect violated, by having governors for example locally selected.

The second problem is one of minorities within minorities. Afghanistan is a patchwork of ethnicities; in particular, there are very large Pushtun communities in the north that would be stranded if the south were to become the new Pushtunistan (and vice versa). All settlements based on rule by dominant ethnic groups risk unleashing population transfers and ethnic cleansing, as in the partition of the subcontinent in 1947, the breakup of Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, or Iraq after 2003.

The third problem is President Karzai, who would be a big loser in such a deal because he would no longer have patronage powers very far outside of Kabul.

A fourth problem is the Taliban itself. The Taliban is not a unitary actor, but contains within itself different trends and is in any case built on top of a complex tribal structure. There are big differences of perspective between urban and rural Pushtuns. It is not clear with whom the government of Afghanistan or NATO would negotiate with (Karzai has already gotten burned talking to fake Taliban representatives), or whether a designated negotiator would be able to make an agreement stick. The Taliban has reportedly set up an office in Qatar so there is at least an address to which one could mail an invitation.

A fifth problem concerns the international dimension. As an interested parties, the US or NATO could not oversee a peace process directly; a UN framework is probably necessary for a negotiation to take place. No settlement will be successful unless Afghanistan’s neighbors India, Pakistan, Iran, and Russia, are willing to live with it. Needless to say, many of these parties are involved in bitter conflicts with one another and cannot be gotten around a table easily.

So getting to a negotiated settlement won’t be easy. But no negotiation of a long and bitter conflict looks easy at the outset. The United States has proven that it cannot be defeated militarily in Afghanistan. But it does not have the public support to stay there in large numbers indefinitely, nor should it, given the nature of our underlying interests in the country. So in addition to our military strategy we need to at least begin to think concretely about a political path towards stabilizing the country once our direct military presence has been drawn down.

The limits of universalism - Henry Kissinger [why history didn't end. sorry, fukuyama]

jun 3rd, 2012 CE

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From: B


The New Criterion, June 2012

The limits of universalism

On Burkean conservatism

by Henry A. Kissinger

I’d like to thank Roger Kimball for that generous introduction. Our friendship by now spans the decades since we met at Bill Buckley’s house. Bill infused the lives of all he touched. And he inspired a generation to define a new concept of conservatism for the contemporary era. It disputed not the need for progress but the proposition that progress could be invented and implemented as a bureaucratic exercise. Bill posed an alternative of progress as an organic expression of a society fulfilling its vision and culture in the flow of history.

I am honored to receive a prize commemorating Edmund Burke, whom Bill so admired. I, too, have found Burke’s vision of conservatism an apt guide to contemporary problems. Burke lived in a time comparable to ours: The French Revolution was in the process of destroying the established civil order and the monarchical principle. The American Revolution upended the prevailing international order.

Burke confronted the conservative paradox: Values are universal, but generally have to be implemented as part of a process, that is to say, gradually. If they are implemented without respect for history or circumstance, they invalidate all traditional restraints. Burke sympathized with the American Revolution because he considered it a natural evolution of English liberties. Burke opposed the French Revolution, which he believed wrecked what generations had wrought and, with it, the prospect of organic growth.

For Burke, society was both an inheritance and a point of departure. As he wrote in his Reflections on the Revolution in France, “[T]he idea of inheritance furnishes a sure principle of conservation and a sure principle of transmission, without at all excluding a principle of improvement.” A society proceeding in this spirit will discover that “in what we improve we are never wholly new; in what we retain we are never wholly obsolete.”

Hence prudence is “in all things a virtue, [and] in politics the first of virtues.” Its practice yields a politics, which, as Burke wrote in November 1789, “lead[s] us rather to acquiesce in some qualified plan that does not come up to the full perfection of the abstract idea, than to push for the more perfect, which cannot be attained without tearing to pieces the whole contexture of the commonwealth.”

That distinction defines the disagreement between conservatism and liberalism in our society, between viewing history as an organic process or as a series of episodes shaped by self-will. It also accounts, to some extent, for the difference between Burkean conservatism as I understand it and some aspects of neoconservatism.

Let me say that I consider the latter difference a family quarrel. Many neoconservatives are personal friends of mine, with whose analyses of any given situation I often agree, and whose convictions I respect. I have also become quite familiar with them, having been shot at by them from time to time from both sides of the dividing lines. We differ primarily on the role of history in achieving common objectives.

The difference is often put as an abstract debate over whether power or values is the dominant force in international relations. The advocates of a realist foreign policy are caricatured with the German term Realpolitik, I suppose to facilitate the choosing of sides. In this caricature, international relations is described as a series of clashing billiard balls, careering off each other at calculable and perfectible angles determined by their relative force. Values, it is claimed, are irrelevant to a “realist” foreign policy; the balance of power is its dominant, or even sole, motive force.

The alternative approach is often put forward in the name of “idealism” or a “values-based” foreign policy. For this approach, American values are universal and transportable, by predictable mechanisms and usually in a finite period of time. Strategic issues are dealt with on the whole by analyzing domestic structures. According to the neoconservative school of thought, relations are bound to be adversarial with imperfectly democratic societies; relations are certain to improve as democracy prevails. Geopolitical analysis is rejected because it presumes the continued existence of faulty governances. This school of thought calls on America to spread its values by the sponsorship of revolution and, if necessary, by force. Yet neither of these approaches seems to me to meet the Burkean test of accounting for the full variety of human experience and the complexity of statesmanship.

The billiard table is a seductive analogy. But in real foreign policy, the billiard balls do not react only to physical impact. They are also guided by their own cultural inheritances: their histories, instincts, ideals, their characteristic national approaches to strategy, in short, their national values. A realist foreign policy needs a strong value system to guide it through the inherent ambiguities of circumstance. Even Bismarck, the supreme realist, emphasized the ultimate moral basis of realist statesmanship: “The best a statesman can do is to listen carefully to the footsteps of God, get ahold of the hem of His cloak and walk with Him a few steps of the way.”

The neoconservative approach posits that universal peace is achievable by engineering a world of democratic institutions and that, if history does not move quickly enough, we can move it along by military force. My concern is that this ultimate goal is in practice so remote, and the method of reaching it so uncertain, that it leads to an interventionism exhausting our society and ultimately to abdication, as in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. The difference is less one of destination than of pacing. The point is not that what exists is unalterable, but that the effort required to implement change will be more sustainable, if we temper the visionary aspect of policy with a recognition of the variety and complexity of circumstance.

The current situation in the Middle East is instructive. The Arab Spring was initially greeted with exuberance as a regional, youth-led revolution on behalf of liberal democratic principles. But, as Burke recognized, revolution succeeds through the confluence of many disparate grievances; the dissolution of the old regime inevitably brings with it the need to distill from these grievances a new version of domestic authority. This process is often violent and far from automatically creates a tradition of civil tolerance and individual rights; it is, at best, the beginning of a journey toward these goals. America can, and should, assist on this journey. But we will fail if we settle for one-party elections and sectarian dominance as a democratic outcome.

Attempts to transform the political structures of Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan amidst conflict conditions faltered when American public opinion came to question the length, cost, and ambiguity of the effort. The United States has now embarked on a new series of commitments to shaping the future evolution of other states in North Africa and the Middle East. I do not question the sincerity or the nobility of the effort. But an attempt to promote humane values will come to nothing if it cannot be sustained over time. And to be sustainable, it must be placed within a framework of other traditional American national interests and a recognition of the American public’s appetite for extended interventions.

As the Arab Spring unfolds, some of the key issues to be resolved include: Do we have a preference as to which groups come to power? Or are we agnostic so long as the mechanisms are electoral? If so, how do we avoid the risk of fostering a new absolutism legitimized by managed plebiscites? What outcomes are compatible with America’s core strategic interests? Will it be possible to combine strategic withdrawal from key countries like Iraq and Afghanistan and reduced military expenditures with doctrines of universal humanitarian intervention?

The Arab Spring has not abolished traditional strategic realities or traditional factional forces within the societies experiencing upheaval. A plausible vision counsels a willingness to relate our efforts to a pace somewhat more evolutionary—sometimes even ambiguous—than will necessarily satisfy the YouTube and Twitter generation. It is not an abdication of principle to adapt American foreign policy to the domestic circumstances of other societies and to other relevant factors, including national security.

In the end, what is at issue are concepts of world order and human progress. The extreme realist model proposes a world of equilibrium, punctuated by conflict. The United States, in this view, cannot shape history toward humane or democratic outcomes because history cannot be shaped, only enacted. The neoconservative model substitutes a democratic teleology of history and assigns America the responsibility (and the ability) to urge it along through diplomacy, the encouragement of revolution, and, in the extreme, through force.

American Burkean conservatism can make its distinctive contribution in transcending this cleavage. A world order of states embracing participatory governance and international cooperation, in accordance with agreed-upon rules, can be our hope and should be our inspiration. Progress toward it is possible, and desirable. But this progress will generally need to be sustained through a series of intermediary stages. At any given interval, we will usually be better served, as Burke wrote in the passage quoted earlier, “to acquiesce in some qualified plan that does not come up to the full perfection of the abstract idea, than to push for the more perfect,” and risk a collapse and abdication by insisting on the ultimate immediately. We need a strategy and diplomacy that allow for the complexity of the journey—the loftiness of the goal, as well as the inherent incompleteness of the human endeavors through which it will be approached.

An attempt to operate on principles of power alone will prove unsustainable. But an attempt to promote values without an account for culture and nuance—as well as other intangibles of circumstance and chance—will end in disillusionment and abdication.

The distinction between idealism and realism rejects the experience of history. Idealists do not have a monopoly on moral values; realists must recognize that ideals are also part of reality. We will be less frequently disillusioned if we emphasize a foreign policy designed to accumulate nuance rather than triumph through apocalyptic showdowns, and our values will benefit over the longer term.

Such an effort must be based on an awareness of our cultural heritage—the preservation of which is a vast challenge in our social media and Internet age. The generations brought up on books were obliged to internalize concepts and think through complex ideas transmitted across time. When information is acquired by being “looked up” on the Internet, a surfeit of information may inhibit the acquisition of knowledge, and respect for it. When facts are disaggregated from their context and called up only when needed, they risk losing the coherence of historical perspective. As Burke wrote, “People will not look forward to posterity, who never look backward to their ancestors.”

When identity is established by a consensus of episodic “friends” on social media pages, the immediate may overwhelm the important. Reaction to stimuli may transcend reflection on substance. Overcoming this danger may be the ultimate cultural task for the Burkean conservative.

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Editor’s note: The following remarks were delivered at the inaugural Edmund Burke Award for Service to Culture and Society at The New Criterion’s 30th Anniversary Gala in New York City on April 26, 2012.  You can read more about it here.