Swapan D: Help Nepal, don't sermonize

Feb 5th

Time to sidestep a Himalayan blunder

. Readers of Strobe Talbot's account of his dialogue with India in the aftermath of the 1998 nuclear tests may recall his description of the atmosphere in Washington DC that fateful May when CNN broke the news from Pokhran. It was not only that President Clinton, his Secretary of State and the CIA top brass were enraged by the audacity of a country they viewed as exotically pretentious.

Their fury stemmed from the fact that the administration was caught napping. Big powers don't like to be caught unawares, because it exposes their diplomatic and Intelligence establishments to ridicule. And, predictably, a surprise prompts angry, knee-jerk reactions.

India, quite rightly, perceives itself as an emerging world power and the big brother of South Asia. It likes to be consulted, informed and, in turn, influence neighbourhood developments. Two months or so ago, New Delhi had an inkling that Nepal's King Gyanendra was contemplating assuming direct charge of the country's affairs and jettisoning a discredited political class. It advised the King against removing the buffer between the Maoist insurgents and the monarchy. The monarch held back for the moment, but, chose to ultimately disregard the advice. On February 1, he surprised India by staging a monarchist coup.

It is the indignation that comes from being made a monkey of that explains the outrage in New Delhi over developments in Nepal. The Prime Minister who has no problems sharing Urdu couplets with President Pervez Musharraf, breaking bread with Senior General Than Shwe and inviting the King of Bhutan to grace the Republic Day parade has declined to shake hands with an autocratic King Gyanendra at the thwarted SAARC summit. The Army chief has cancelled his goodwill visit to Kathmandu and there is talk of suspending all arms sales to Nepal. To add to its furtive search for a popular insurrection in Kathmandu, an over-indignant media has published ridiculous stories of a Tiananmen Square-type massacre in Pokhra.

Whether at the inauguration in Washington DC or the polling booths in Iraq and Bihar, democracy is the flavour of the season. It doesn't do for a monarch to think otherwise.

Yet, before the Nepal King finds his place in the pantheon of global dictators, certain observations are in order. First, for all practical purposes, Nepal has ceased to be a functioning democracy since 2002. All the Governments that have assumed charge since then have been nominated by the King. The only difference this time is that the King has also assumed the role of the Prime Minister.

Second, the turbulence in Nepal that has cost some 11,000 lives has not come about because of undiluted royalist ambitions. It began with the Maoists launching a so-called People's War in 1996 and the complete inability of the political class to cope with the menace. The King has merely taken advantage of this state of national disrepair to suggest that he can best lead the charge against the murderers who wave the red flag.

King Gyanendra's faith in his own leadership may well be misplaced, but, the South Asian experience suggests that non-ethnic insurgencies are rarely settled by following democratic niceties. The Naxalites in West Bengal, the Khalistanis in Punjab and the JVP in Sri Lanka were defeated by meticulous military operations that violated every clause of the human rights charter. Saving democracy entailed putting democracy on the back-burner.

As the dust settles in Nepal, India has to exercise a few hard options. It can choose to make the ruffled egos of its own establishment the driving force of punitive action against the King. In the process, it will be handing over Nepal on a platter to Comrade Prachanda. As it is, the Congress is playing a dangerous game appeasing the Maoists at home. Alternatively, it must make the defeat of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal its immediate and unwavering goal. The restoration of democracy is a medium and long-term imperative.

Nepal needs our help. The sermons can wait for another day.