Ep. 192: india's lessons from hormuz: pax indica, digital/narrative control, or perish

https://open.substack.com/pub/rajeevsrinivasan/p/india-will-collapse-without-digital?r=66qfh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

india must create an Anti-Fragile nation:

1. National security/defense

2. Food security

3. Energy security

4. Digital security/narrative control

5. Trade security

how has india's foreign policy helped the nation under PM modi?

https://open.substack.com/pub/rajeevsrinivasan/p/how-has-indias-foreign-policy-in?r=66qfh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Malayalam DD podcast on how foreign policy initiatives have helped India in the time of the Modi government.

There are AI-generated English audio, summary, and a slide deck which may be more accessible. the audio podcast is actually very good.

Quick notes: G2 | Nuclear dependency...

• G2 resets India’s calculus: The emerging US-China cooperation means the marginalisation of New Delhi and other powers in Asia and Europe. First proposed by Brzezinski and implemented by Obama in 2009, G2 suggests that the US and China rule the rest of the world. The Obama-Hu Jintao joint statement of 2009 even mentioned both countries looking after South Asian security issues.
  
  China will leverage G2 to scale up its “all-weather” friendship with Pakistan. India needs to brace for further aggression.
  
  Why Hegseth's 'Shangri-La' Speech Should Worry India: For peace, you need strength. But that is certainly not what the US is projecting right now.
  
  The Chinese use not just their navy, air force, or coast guard but even massive fishing fleets to threaten neighbours. These "maritime militia" obstruct shipping routes, forcing international shipping as well to zigzag around them.



• Honeymoon: From mutual suspicion to political embrace: How the U.S. learned to stop worrying and love Pakistan.



• Was Rafale a bad choice? Why IAF needs Russian Su-57 stealth fighter. Pakistan is pursuing Chinese J-35 stealth fighters while China already operates hundreds of J-20 stealth aircraft.



• Chinese Missile Likely Downed US F-15 Fighter Jet In Iran: US officials said the equipment could have improved Iran’s ability to track advanced fighter jets like the US F-15E Strike Eagle.

  Elon Musk Drops Truth Bomb: China’s Army of Brilliant, Relentless Talent Is Far More Powerful Than Most Outsiders Realize
  
  Elon Musk, speaking candidly in a recent interview, cut through the noise:
  
  “I want to emphasize the sheer number of smart, talented people in China who work… pic.twitter.com/YHkUStbn7J

  — Alvin Foo (@alvinfoo) May 25, 2026




• High cost of import dependence: Tighten belts says PM, then $43 Bn thrown at Rafale, another $10 Billion for a diesel submarine



• India will pay $68 billion to US to become a nuclear dependency: Trump has moved on from India and Modi. In the region, he has found Asim Munir and the Pakistani state he runs far more congenial to augment his personal/family holdings and US interests. Because however much Modi wishes to cuddle up to Trump and accommodate the US, there is a limit beyond which he cannot. Munir faces no such systemic constraint.
  
  As per the 2008 civilian nuclear cooperation act, the fuel for the imported American reactors will have to be periodically imported from the US, and which supply can be stopped/disrupted at will, at any time for any reason, that Washington can think up. If these reactors are owned by US power companies, however, the US govt will be more considerate in imposing sanctions, say. And with a regular supply of US fuel assured, these firms can be permitted profitably to run a chain of nuclear power plants in India in a closed loop.



• Indians in MAGA land: How Trump's Visa Crackdown Triggered a Texas Housing Bust




• India’s fertility rate falls below replacement level: India’s Total Fertility Rate has fallen below the replacement level for the first time, revealing a widening demographic divide between ageing southern states and younger northern states.



• Rice bags for atrocity drama: Andhra Pradesh pastor booked for staging attack on self to trigger communal unrest



• Big Subsidies for Google, Limited Water for Locals: The Dilemma of AI in India. When Google arrived last year in this sleepy coastal Indian city, the govt rolled out the welcome mat, offering billions of dollars’ worth of incentives for the U.S. company to build data centers for AI.



• Lahore Is Changing Names Of Its Streets: Now, the official signboards of Islampura read Krishan Nagar, Babri Masjid Chowk has reverted to Jain Mandir Chowk, and Rehman Gali is back to being called Ram Gali.



• America Can't Touch It: There Is A 'Shadow' Route Keeping Iran Alive.



• Tabla Cover: Shreya Bhattacharjee




• Beijing enforces policy to secure top-tier talent: Chinese AI experts in private firms now required to secure approval before international travel.



• R&D: Chinese university builds 3D chip design tool tailored to Huawei's ‘LogicFolding’ architecture — 3D design delivers increased performance and better thermal management



• Impressive specs: Russian-Chinese Irtysh 32-core CPU runs The Witcher 3 at 30+ FPS



• China's New Export Rules: Will Curbs Short Circuit India's $120 Billion Electronics Dream?



• India’s energy storage crisis: The Advanced Chemistry Cell PLI scheme, launched in 2021 with an outlay of Rs 18,100 crore, targeted 50 GWh of domestic cell manufacturing by 2025. As of December, 40 GWh had been awarded across four firms, of which only 1 GWh had been commissioned, and no incentive has yet been disbursed.
  
  Policy still treats storage as a single category. It is not. An electric vehicle battery is built around energy density — weight matters, lithium wins. A grid battery or data-centre backup has no such constraint. It needs cycle life of over 10 to 15 years, thermal safety in occupied environments.
  
  The chemistries worth backing are the ones where India already has the upstream. Zinc is the cleanest case. India is among the world’s top five zinc producers, with an integrated mining and smelting base in Rajasthan operating at global scale. The upstream does not need to be invented; what does not yet exist is the bridge from refined zinc to battery-grade material to an Indian-manufactured cell, and that bridge is a policy choice, not a technology gap.
  
  Sodium offers a parallel opportunity, side-stepping cobalt, nickel, and graphite — the three minerals Beijing holds most tightly. Indian institutions are already moving.
  
  The choice is between accepting whatever the current supply chain delivers at whatever price Beijing decides, and deliberately building a storage industry where the cell is Indian, the electrolyte is Indian and the input minerals are Indian.

fireside chat with anuj gupta on policy

https://rajeevsrinivasan.substack.com/p/iitmaa-fireside-chats-ep-5-masterclass

Quick notes: Emperor Xi | Ground 'drones'...

• Trump’s Pursuit of a Partnership With China Raises Concerns in India: Rubio has a gargantuan task during his visit to Delhi: defuse tensions over Trump’s anti-India aggression and overtures to China. Trump found time to lavish praise on Xi Jinping calling him “a great leader” and “a friend.” The two men, Mr. Trump said, would “have a fantastic future together.”
  
  Trump's comment that he would revisit arms sales to Taiwan has stirred anxiety across Asia and prompted questions about U.S. security commitments. Indian leaders are among those with concerns.
  
  Trump-Xi Bonhomie: Should India Be Uneasy?: A former Indian foreign secretary, a leading China hawk until recently, has advised the Modi govt that a reassessment of Quad is overdue. But it is easier said than done, given the mindset of the Indian elite.



• Xi Is Truly Done Falling For The Great American Bluff: China kept the upper hand during Trump's visit by, amongst other things, Xi Jinping retaining his poise and distance while Trump tried to ingratiate himself with flattery and body language.
  
  At the opening of the formal delegation-level talks, the lining up of the top-most American corporate leaders behind Trump suggested a homage being paid to Xi's China, reminiscent of the kowtowing to the Chinese emperor in the past. Trump was messaging a willingness to explore possibilities of renewed economic interdependence with China.
  
  Addressing Trump at the formal talks, Xi was sententious and demanding. He called on the US to be "partners, not rivals" with China. . . . amusing to see Trump kissing Xi's ass.

India’s compliance, China’s defiance: As New Delhi petitions Washington to renew the sanctions waiver expiring today so it can keep importing Russian oil, Trump says he is considering lifting U.S. sanctions on Chinese refiners buying Iranian crude. China defies American sanctions…

— Dr. Brahma Chellaney (@Chellaney) May 16, 2026




• Christian nationalist push: Trump administration pushes narrative of Christian founding at Rally. . One Nation under Yeshu.



• Trump Is Setting His Sights on Restricting Legal Immigration: A new approach is emerging on legal immigration, one that makes it harder for those abroad to enter the United States, and for those already here on a temporary basis to stay.



• Ground drones taking on dangerous missions: The "Ground Drones" rescuing Ukraine's wounded from the Front Lines



• China Boosts Indian Ocean Ambitions: China despatches thousands of fishing boats to the region for illegal fishing, thus depleting the fish stock of the region.
  
  During Operation Sindoor, hundreds of such boats appeared, possibly to harass the Indian Navy.
  
  Such 'grey zone' activities are conducted to indicate China's intention to enter the region, gather intelligence, create civil-military confusion, exploit lack of preparedness by adversaries or treated as a stop-gap arrangement before full-fledged naval deployments.
  
  Even though China had commissioned the Djibouti naval base in 2017, initially as a logistical support facility at the chokepoint of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, it is now being expanded to include submarine docking facilities.
  
  China also initiated a number of dual-use ports or maritime facilities -- estimated to be more than a hundred across 46 countries in the region. These are considered to be a counter to the US-led maritime world order as well as to marginalise India in the region.

What Chinese Distant Water Fishing Vessels are doing inside the Exclusive Economic Zones of Argentina, Peru, Ecuador, Chile, Panama and other South American nations, is surely not industrial fishing. This is a well organised plunder of marine resources, funded and facilitated by… pic.twitter.com/TZR5IRUzzc

— Isabella Anderson (@IsabellaAn67) February 11, 2026




• Supreme Court of India: 'If Parents Are IAS Officers, Why Reservation For Their Children?'



• Beyond just assembling phones: Lava's ₹1,100 Cr bet is to build what's inside. Aims to shift from mere assembly to producing key components domestically. . . a lot can be done even before domestic fabs go live.



• Three Charts:

India Oil Consumption: 2013 to 2024: 5.621M bbl/d for 2024


USD to Indian Rupee - 2013 to 2026:


Brent Crude Price - 2010 to 2026:




• Uber-ize gold: For national necessity & personal prosperity. How a National Gold Library could transform household jewellery into productive capital, strengthen the rupee, and cut imports.



• Ustad Rashid Khan: Raag Shyam Kalyan

IITMAA Fireside Chats Ep. 5: Masterclass by Anuj Gupta on #Policy and How Govt is now a Shaper and Enabler of Business, not a Regulator alone or an Obstacle

https://open.substack.com/pub/rajeevsrinivasan/p/iitmaa-fireside-chats-ep-5-masterclass?r=66qfh&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true

Quick notes: Royal Enfield | Unlivable cities...

• Put the screens away: The U.S. spent $30 Billion to replace textbooks with screens. The Result: A first generation mentally weaker than its parents.. For the first time in modern history, a generation scores lower than the one that raised it. The reason sits on every school desk in America. Nearly two-thirds of laptop time goes off task



• Made-in-Chennai: Royal Enfield beats Ferrari, Audi to become world's third strongest automotive brand. . . . Brings serious vintage style with a modern 650 twin engine




• Mahindra tractors - Built to last: Why American farmers are sleeping on the $15K Tractor that RULES the world



• Biogas could be LPG hedge in India's dairy belt: If all the 40 million cattle-rearing households were to shift to biogas, the displacement potential is up to ~4 million tonnes of LPG every year. Even if 10 million of them make this transition, it could save up to Rs 2,000 crore annually



• Burden of BikAss: India’s legendary hill towns are sinking. Over development threatens many Himalayan states



• India has 100/100 hottest cities in the world: Cutting trees, filling lakes, and building heat traps in the name of BikAss. "The central government is selling geological vital forest land to corporations. Then they are planting irrelevant trees in irrelevant areas to keep the statistics levelled. Not only that but the factories here run completely without regulations"
"Too bad the mangroves on the west coast, trees on the Aravali hills on the western front of India, the sparse protections it has from the warm winds from the direction of Africa, are going away in the name of "progress" and "infrastructure". Capitalism will absolutely be the death of the human race".



• This $50 Wall Cools Any Home By 25°F: Cheap cooling for dry places



• R&D spend of PSUs is more than private player: The tragedy that is Indian private sector.

R&D spend of HAL is 2000 Cr. More than many private sector companies https://t.co/Krxsgzym8E pic.twitter.com/o1XNT891XQ

— ᛊ Mr. Chan ᛊ (@RohitChan666) January 18, 2026



• Who runs India?: China is run by engineers.. US run by lawyers.. Who runs India?

Highly recommended book. Along similar lines is my analysis:
China is run by engineers
US run by lawyers
Europe by ideologue
Pak run by terrorists
Who runs India?

https://t.co/svYBJvtlb7

— Rajiv Malhotra (@RajivMessage) May 9, 2026



• Service companies are not tech companies: Tragedy of Indian homegrown companies




• There Is a Fire Sale on M.B.A.s: Behind all of the price breaks is softening demand for the traditional two-year M.B.A



• Iran has better universities than India?

Sharif is the #1 university in Iran. Over the last 25 years, it has been in the top 3 destinations of top Olympiad medalists. https://t.co/LAA9f2iTQh pic.twitter.com/lGyGUDLtJY

— Adib (@adibvafa) April 29, 2026



• Singapore vs India: World's densest semiconductor fab cluster.

In semiconductors the little island of Singapore has an incredible story to tell:

- 20+ fabs (India has struggled here..)
- consistent state policy + support since 1960s
- 7% of GDP. pic.twitter.com/dsG8d5j3J6

— Amar Govindarajan (@amargov) April 25, 2026



• Raag Mishra Khamaj: Venkatesh Kumar




• What could possibly go wrong: The Pentagon announces AI deals with OpenAI, Google, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and more — LLMs to be deployed on classified Department of War networks ‘for lawful operational use’