Russia Offers $35 Discount on Oil to India

Putin’s War Is Complicating India’s Middle Path Among Powers

 This piece in NYT wasn't bad -- at least compared to their other pieces which flagellated us:

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/world/asia/india-ukraine-russia-china.html

“Our position is not that this is not our problem — our position is that we are for peace,” Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India’s foreign minister, told the country’s Parliament on the day India again chose to abstain from voting against Russia at the United Nations. “Indian foreign policy decisions are made in Indian national interest, and we are guided by our thinking, our views, our interests.”

Tulsi Gabbard Facing 'Shadow-Ban'

India Plays Both Sides with America and Russia

Quick notes: Lessons for India | Battery swap...

• Lessons for India:
  
  - Reduce dependency on institutions controlled by the West: We have grown accustomed to thinking of interbank communications (SWIFT) as a global utility; they’ve now been turned into a tool of Western foreign policy.
  
  - Reduce dependency on platforms controlled by MNCs : Russia bans Facebook... "calls for murder of Russian nationals and serving as a platform for organizing riots".
  
  - Prepare for every eventuality: How Ukraine is keeping its internet up and running, and what India can learn from it



• The West won't condemn neo-Nazis: Mariupol is home to a Ukrainian militia unit called the Azov Brigade that contains far-right extremists, historically including neo-Nazis.



• Battery swapping: 50 Rupees, 2-Minute Battery Change. The pivot to battery swapping was a centerpiece of Nirmala Sitharaman's budget speech.



• Battery Packs: Excellent tech talk by Peter Rawlinson, CEO, Lucid Motors




• Intel's view: Chinese chipmakers could become strong rivals by 2025



• Govt subsidies for semiconductor fabs: Intel subsidies for Ohio, Magedeburg fabs measure in billions of dollars



• The return of dumbphones: "It makes sense that some of us are now looking for simpler technologies and think that dumbphones might offer a return to simpler times. It might leave more time to fully concentrate on a single task and engage with it more purposefully. It might even calm people down. Studies have shown that too much choice can create unhappiness and agitation."



• Bowing to Han power: Pakistan invited China to Organization of Islamic Cooperation despite not being an Islamic country and currently actively engaging in genocide against Muslim minority groups.



• Jamaicans call for reparations as British royal couple arrives: “No reason to celebrate the Queen’s coronation because her leadership, and that of her predecessors, have perpetuated the greatest human rights tragedy in the history of humankind”. 

BlackRock CEO Says Russia-Ukraine War is 'End of Globalization'

 I guess it took the deaths of blonde blue-eyed kids to achieve this, but BlackRock CEO Larry Fink now says the Russia-Ukraine war heralds the "end of globalization"

https://financialpost.com/financial-times/larry-fink-says-ukraine-war-marks-end-of-globalization

Gee, who knew? And what are all the hotel owners and realtors in Davos going to do now?

What happens to Indian techies?

Nuland in India, and Kishida too (NeoCon + Nippon)

 Victoria Nuland, a ward of Madeleine Albright, and the US Undersecretary for European Affairs, is now in India to pressure it to help isolate Russia.

Showing up at the same time is Japan's Prime Minister Kishida, there to play Good Cop to Nuland's Bad Cop.

The Carrot and the Stick.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/japan-announces-investment-worth-42-billion-seeks-support-on-ukraine/articleshow/90328200.cms

Brahma's take:

https://chellaney.net/2022/03/19/the-new-us-russia-cold-war-will-accelerate-chinas-rise/

Look at the paradox: Kishida is reluctant to even politely urge China to pull back the large numbers of troops it has threateningly massed along the India frontier. Yet, during his India visit, he sought to persuade his host to take a tougher line on aggression in a distant land.

— Brahma Chellaney (@Chellaney) March 20, 2022

Meanwhile China gives India rare praise for not kowtowing on Ukraine:

https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202203/1255365.shtml

 

India's Ukraine Dilemma

Maybe India needs to revive the old NAM organization by converting into a forum for issues of nations of the South. The fresh pain of higher oil prices is of particular to nations of the South. Even UN Security Council reform can be framed as a North-vs-South issue. Maybe a South Bloc would be a useful counter-response to a West that supports Ukrainian nationalism via a European Jihad whose spillover effects will only catalyze the re-emergence of White Supremacist nationalism across the West anyway:

did UPI kill payTM?

they have no moat. 

The Donbass Files?

You may have seen The Kashmir Files --  but what about The Donbass Files?

From French filmmaker Anne-Laure Bonnel:

West Turning Ukraine Into the Next Afghanistan?

The West is sending insurgency-type arms to Ukraine for use in fighting against the Russian Army:

What happens if a prolonged insurgency war fosters radicalism and extremism, even pulling more in from abroad, which along with that flood of arms, then spills over back into Europe? (aka. 'blowback')

If the Afghan resistance war against the Soviets ultimately led to 9-11, then what will a Ukrainian insurgency war lead to? Aryan Jihad?

Tucker Carlson & Tulsi Gabbard Face Flurry of Calls for Arrest, for Discussing Bio-labs in Ukraine

A sudden avalanche of calls for the arrest of both Tucker Carlson and Tulsi Gabbard have suddenly been made by numerous Washington politicians and the media, after they both discussed on air the subject of Bio-weapons labs which were revealed to be in Ukraine with funding support from the US govt:

Perhaps they'd hit a nerve of truth. Here was their original discussion on the topic:

Quick notes: Fueling the fire | Misfired missile...

• Western media acting as cheerleaders for war: It is suddenly sexy to make improvised explosives – at least, if the media consider you white, European and "civilised".
  
  There were widespread and entirely fictitious reports in the western media of Russian troops butchering a contingent of 13 Ukrainian soldiers on Snake Island. A fake audio tape was released of the Ukrainians supposedly cursing the Russian invaders. It was Russian media reports that turned out to be true. All Ukrainian soldiers had surrendered and were alive and well.



• The Facebook Oligarchy: Facebook okays calls for violence against Russians... Russia restricts Instagram after its parent Meta allows violent threats against Russian military



• Lessons for India: How anti-tank missiles & Russian mistakes worked to Ukraine’s advantage.. Infantry, tanks, and airpower have not been used simultaneously and cohesively to launch a comprehensive attack.
  
  Javelin missiles are programmed to attack the weakest part of an armoured vehicle — the top. Prior to impact, the missiles initiate a steep upward movement to ensure a downward strike on the roof of the vehicle.



• Indian Strength exercises:




• Atmanirbhar on turbine engines? India has built expertise in aeronautical design, flight dynamics and control laws, avionics and other skills needed for building modern combat aircraft. Yet, when it comes to providing an engine, India does not have the capability.



• Feeding your enemy: China’s share in India’s imports: Electrical & Electronic Equipments: 50% | Capital Goods: 55% | Drugs APIs: 68%

*China’s share in India’s imports (%):
Auto components: 27%*
Toys: 75%
Drugs APIs: 68%
Solar Cells: 78%
Capital Goods: 55%
Electrical & Electronic Equipments: 50%
Consumer durables: 45%
Leather goods: 40%
Organic Chemicals: 40%
(News Reports; LS; WITS). We need to change that 🇮🇳

— Sudhir Mehta (@sudhirmehtapune) March 7, 2022



• Bayraktar TB-2: Turkish drone manufacturer reports booming business from Ukraine war



• When a missile misfires: "For a cruise missile, you have to give target coordinates when fired from the ground, and after that she is on her own. There are also some missiles for which the coordinates can be updated in flight.
  
  First thing could be that the coordinates are not correct. But in this particular case, the missile has gone in a particular direction, and then turned. Normally it will only turn in the last stages. So, the type of turn she has taken, that means the coordinates could not have had been wrong.
  
  She had flown straight, then turned, then flown straight. She has not done any funny manoeuvres. Considering that, if she has not done any fancy manoeuvres, has sometime during flight the destination got corrupted?”
  
  "Cannot be credibly explained away by referring to a technical glitch"

The American Empire Self-Destructs

 

The American Empire self-destructs

by Michael Hudson

https://michael-hudson.com/2022/03/the-american-empire-self-destructs/

Ukraine on Fire - 2016 Documentary by Oliver Stone

An interesting documentary from filmmaker Oliver Stone showing the other side of the story on Ukraine, which the mainstream media are avoiding talking about:

And here is the 2019 sequel documentary, also from Oliver Stone:

Prof John Mearsheimer on Joe Biden's Plan for The World

The Real Negotiations - what the West won't tell you

The real negotiations, according to the sources, are happening directly between Russia and Ukraine and are much more serious than what the West has been saying. Kyiv has not shared with the West what has been going on in the negotiations since they do not want to damper the worldwide sense of emergency.

Zelensky can fortify Ukraine's independence but will have to pay a heavy price, the sources said. Assumptions are that he will be forced to give up the contested Donbas region, officially recognize the pro-Russian dissidents in Ukraine, pledge that Ukraine will not join NATO, shrink his army and declare neutrality. If he declines the proposal, the outcome may be terrible: thousands, perhaps tens of thousands of Ukrainians will die and there is a high probability that his country will completely lose its independence.

The proposal was deemed "difficult" but not "impossible," the sources said. It is worse than what Zelensky would have gotten before the invasion but "the gaps between the sides are not great."

Zelensky is torn. On the one hand, he is enjoying immense popularity and has become the perfect Che Guevara. On the other hand, he knows full well what the Argentinian revolutionary and guerrilla leader's end was.

Putin ordered his forces to halt – and the command for a ceasefire to be enacted was given – in order to wait for Zelensky's decision.

JPost: What is going on in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine?

Will AAP Become the New Foreign Catspaw?

 AAP seems to have swept the Punjab elections. Given the current geopolitical tensions, will AAP now become the new foreign tool for foreign powers to exert sway over India?

Quick notes: Racist pit | Phoren degree...

• Is Ukraine the most racist among nations?
  
  - November 2015: Ukraine to play home game behind closed doors as part of a UEFA punishment for racist behaviour by fans at European Championship qualifier against Spain.
  
  - November 2019: Brazilian player sent off in Ukraine for reaction to racism. Ukraine has a history of far-right involvement in its fan base.
  
  - March 2022: Indian and African students fleeing Ukraine say they face segregation, racism at border.
  
  - 'Open the door or we die': Africans report racism and hostility trying to flee Ukraine... He and his friends were quickly kicked off the train, with officials telling them “Ukrainians only.” “I said: ‘You say Ukrainians only, but I don’t see you checking passports. I see you picking white people only.’ The train was not filled before they left, but they never picked us.”



• 90% Indians who study MBBS abroad fail to clear qualifiers: Only 10% of them clear the FMGE qualifiers exams in India to pass the license to practice Medicine in india.
  
  - Why Indians Study Medicine In Ukraine: Modi's statement without promise of appropriate reforms is of no value for stemming student migration to other countries.



• This is where India and China differ: The Thousand Talents Plan is part of China’s long quest to become the global scientific leader.
  
  - PLA partners: Bill Gates developed nuclear reactors that help China overtake the U.S. Military.
  
  - Microsoft created research lab to work on AI for Chinese Military



• The purge: Russia blocks Facebook, passes 'fake news' law



• Indian company transforming palm leaves into tableware: Valued at $65 million, with funding from investors including industrialist Ratan Tata, Bollant Industries operates seven manufacturing plants, producing hundreds of tons of products each month, ranging from tableware to packaging.



• Bio-Salt: Making of Bio-Salt using Okra Slime

John Mearsheimer & Ray McGovern on Putin's Invasion of Ukraine

US Debates India's Non-Alignment on Ukraine

Chellaney: America Is Focusing on the Wrong Enemy

 

https://chellaney.net/2022/02/21/america-is-focusing-on-the-wrong-enemy/

America Is Focusing on the Wrong Enemy

US President Joe Biden is treating a “rogue” Russia as a peer competitor, when he should be focused on the challenge from America’s actual peer, China. Not only is China more powerful than Russia; it also genuinely seeks to supplant the US as the preeminent global power.

BRAHMA CHELLANEY, Project Syndicate

Much of the democratic world would like the United States to remain the preeminent global power. But with the US apparently committed to strategic overreach, that outcome risks becoming unlikely.

The problem with America’s global leadership begins at home. Hyper-partisan politics and profound polarization are eroding American democracy and impeding the pursuit of long-term objectives. In foreign policy, the partisan divide can be seen in perceptions of potential challengers to the US: according to a March 2021 poll, Republicans are most concerned about China, while Democrats worry about Russia above all.

This may explain why US President Joe Biden is treating a “rogue” Russia as a peer competitor, when he should be focused on the challenge from America’s actual peer, China. In comparison to Russia, China’s population is about ten times bigger, its economy is almost ten times larger, and its military expenditure is around four times greater. Not only is China more powerful; it genuinely seeks to supplant the US as the preeminent global power. By contrast, with its military buildup on Ukraine’s borders, Russia is seeking to mitigate a perceived security threat in its neighborhood.

Hastening the decline of US global leadership is hardly the preserve of Democrats. A bipartisan parade of US leaders has failed to recognize that the post-Cold War unipolar world order, characterized by unchallenged US economic and military predominance, is long gone. The US squandered its “unipolar moment,” especially by waging an expensive and amorphous “Global War on Terrorism,” including several military interventions, and through its treatment of Russia.

After its Cold War victory, the US essentially took an extended victory lap, pursuing strategic maneuvers that flaunted its dominance. Notably, it sought to expand NATO to Russia’s backyard, but made little effort to bring Russia into the Western fold, as it had done with Germany and Japan after World War II. The souring of relations with the Kremlin contributed to Russia’s eventual remilitarization.

So, while the US remains the world’s foremost military power, it has been stretched thin by the decisions and commitments it has made, in Europe and elsewhere, since 1991. This goes a long way toward explaining why the US has ruled out deploying its own troops to defend Ukraine today. What the US is offering Ukraine – weapons and ammunition – cannot protect the country from Russia, which has an overwhelming military advantage.

But US leaders made another fatal mistake since the Cold War: by aiding China’s rise, they helped to create the greatest rival their country has ever faced. Unfortunately, they have yet to learn from this. Instead, the US continues to dedicate insufficient attention and resources to an excessively wide array of global issues, from Russian revanchism and Chinese aggression to lesser threats in the Middle East and Africa and on the Korean Peninsula. And it continues inadvertently to bolster China’s global influence, not least through its overuse of sanctions.

For example, by barring friends and allies from importing Iranian oil, two successive US administrations enabled China not only to secure oil at a hefty discount, but also to become a top investor in – and security partner of – the Islamic Republic. US sanctions have similarly pushed resource-rich Myanmar into China’s arms. As Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose country has faced a US arms embargo over its ties to China, asked last year, “If I don’t rely on China, who will I rely on?”

Russia has been asking itself the same question. Though Russia and China kept each other at arm’s length for decades, US-led sanctions introduced after Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea drove President Vladimir Putin to pursue a closer strategic partnership with China. The bilateral relationship is likely to deepen, regardless of what happens in Ukraine. But the raft of harsh new sanctions the US has promised to implement in the event of a Russian invasion will accelerate this shift significantly, with China as the big winner.

The heavy financial penalties the US has planned – including the “nuclear option” of disconnecting Russian banks from the international SWIFT payments system – would turn China into Russia’s banker, enabling it to reap vast profits and expand the international use of its currency, the renminbi. If Biden fulfilled his pledge to block the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, which is set to deliver Russian supplies directly to Germany via the Baltic Sea, China would gain greater access to Russian energy.

In fact, by securing a commitment from Putin this month to a nearly tenfold increase in Russian natural gas exports, China is building a safety net that could – in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – withstand Western energy sanctions and even a blockade. China could also benefit militarily by demanding greater access to Russian military technology in exchange for its support.

For the US, a strengthened Russia-China axis is the worst possible outcome of the Ukraine crisis. The best outcome would be a compromise with Russia to ensure that it does not invade and possibly annex Ukraine. By enabling the US to avoid further entanglement in Europe, this would permit a more realistic balancing of key objectives – especially checking Chinese aggression in the Indo-Pacific – with available resources and capabilities.

The future of the US-led international order will be decided in Asia, and China is currently doing everything in its power to ensure that order’s demise. Already, China is powerful enough that it can host the Winter Olympics even as it carries out a genocide against Muslims in the Xinjiang region, with limited pushback. If the Biden administration does not recognize the true scale of the threat China poses, and adopt an appropriately targeted strategy soon, whatever window of opportunity for preserving US preeminence remains may well close.

Brahma Chellaney, Professor of Strategic Studies at the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research and Fellow at the Robert Bosch Academy in Berlin, is the author of nine books, including Asian Juggernaut; Water: Asia’s New Battleground; and Water, Peace, and War: Confronting the Global Water Crisis.

Ukraine Hails China as Mediator-Saviour

Meanwhile China, after instigating Putin into invading Ukraine, is now being seen as a heroic saviour and mediator by Ukraine's govt:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-russia-invasion-china-ceasefire-b2026280.html

Ukraine has asked China to use its ties with Moscow to convince Russia to stop its invasion of the country.

Foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba made the request of his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in a phone call on Tuesday, according to a statement from the Ukrainian foreign ministry.

The statement said that China’s Foreign Minister told Mr Kuleba that Beijing was ready to make every effort to help end the war through diplomacy.

A Chinese readout, that cites Mr Kuleba, said: “Ukraine is willing to strengthen communications with China, and it looks forward to China playing a mediation role in achieving a ceasefire.”

Mr Wang was also said to have been “extremely concerned about the harm to civilians” in the ongoing conflict.

So India gets chastised by Ukraine for its abstention vote at UNSC. But beloved China is now being invited as a mediator-saviour. You've got to hand it to the Chinese for cunning & audacity. They've got their Ukrainian pigeons eating out of their hand.

U.S. Recalls Cable Saying India and UAE “in Russia’s Camp”

US State Dept on gut instinct just fired off at India, but then suddenly thought better against doing so. Who in their midst are responsible for these divergent opinions?

Since the US has realized it's better not to chastise India directly, we can probably expect them to swith to "Track 2 Diplomacy" -- in other words, we'll soon start to see various Indians speaking up to chastise Indian govt for not siding with Ukraine against Russia.

https://www.axios.com/us-accuses-india-uae-russias-camp-8dc60479-e897-454f-8ac4-45aef5c39458.html

The State Department has recalled a cable to U.S. diplomats that instructed them to inform counterparts from India and the United Arab Emirates their position of neutrality on Ukraine put them "in Russia's camp," Axios has learned.

Why it matters: The recall of the strongly worded cable indicates either a process error with a fabled and vital work product — or a policy dispute inside the U.S. government involving two key allies.

• Diplomatic cables are typically circulated through relevant parties at the State Department and vetted by numerous officials before being cleared for distribution to embassies.
• They are the primary ways of communicating internal policy decisions and instructions from "Main State" to diplomats posted abroad.

The intrigue: The cable was blasted to U.S. embassies in the nearly 50 countries represented at the ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​United Nations Human Rights Council on Monday but recalled Tuesday afternoon.

• Axios, which viewed portions of the cable, initially contacted the State Department for comment on Tuesday morning.
• "The language in question was never intended for clearance and the cable was released in error, which is why it was recalled," a State Department spokesperson said Wednesday.
• "The inquiry was not the reason for the recall," the spokesperson said.

Details: The cable, rated sensitive but unclassified, suggested some frank language for U.S. diplomats to use to try to persuade India and the UAE to change their positions.

• "Continuing to call for dialogue, as you have been doing in the Security Council, is not a stance of neutrality; it places you in Russia's camp, the aggressor in this conflict," said draft talking points in the cable, a template for conversations with Indian and Emirati diplomats.
• "We strongly encourage you to take the opportunity to support Ukraine in the HRC [Human Rights Council], an opportunity you failed to seize in the UNSC [United Nations Security Council]."

Foreigners Being Prevented from Leaving Ukraine?

 https://twitter.com/Sharabh_Vishnu_/status/1498845339117568003

The blonde lady flatly tells the students that she is in charge and they cannot board. Another Ukrainian official says that these trains are meant only to transport their own people.

Situation at train station at kharkiv #racist #Ukrainian are not allowing indian Students.#UkraineRussiaWar #RacistUkraine pic.twitter.com/iMdc5pccIN

— Balm (@Sharabh_Vishnu_) March 2, 2022

Quick notes: Inflaming conflict | Next gen weapons...

• What happened to Russia's Air Force? Military experts have seen evidence of a lack of Russian air force coordination with ground troop formations, with multiple Russian columns of troops sent forward beyond the reach of their own air defense cover. That leaves Russian soldiers vulnerable to attack from Ukrainian forces, including those newly equipped with Turkish drones and U.S. and British anti-tank missiles.
  
  Biden supplied city-destroying weapons: Biden supplied powerful city-destroying heavy weapons to the ill-disciplined and Nazi-infected Ukrainian army. The temptation to start using them was irresistible and Kiev’s armed forces foolishly attempted to advance into and occupy Donbass.
  
  Inspired by Pakistan: NATO countries pour weapons into Ukraine, inflaming conflict. “On NATO territory, we should be the Pakistan,” he said, supplying the Ukrainians as Pakistan supplied the Taliban in Afghanistan.



• The weapons that are making a difference: Ukrainian troops have destroyed dozens of columns of Russian vehicles with anti-armor Javelin missiles and simpler Next Generation Light anti-tank weapons (NLAW). The Javelin and NLAW anti-tank weapons have become critical in a war that has seen fighting in both urban and rural areas.
  
  Bayraktar TB2: Turkish drones playing key role in Ukraine.
  
  India's national interest takes backseat to divisive politics and near-constant elections:

India MUST draft a clear policy to retain its top engineering & research talent

Give them the funding, top notch infra, gated living, grants, everything they need to succeed here

This decade has become way too crucial for (nation &) capacity building to absorb future shocks

— TheSignOfFive (@TheSignOfFive) February 28, 2022




• NATO’s dangerous expansion: In hints, in pleas, in public speeches and private approaches, Russia has begged us for years to show it the most basic respect. Our response has been to react with mistrust and abuse, and with blatant attempts to worsen the situation in Ukraine and Georgia, two incredibly dangerous flashpoints where real war might all too easily begin.
  
  As George Kennan put it, Nato expansion was an insult to Russian democrats. 'We are turning our backs on the very people who mounted the greatest bloodless revolution in history to remove that Soviet regime.' He asked why East-West relations should 'become centred on the question of who would be allied with whom – and by implication against whom – in some fanciful, totally unforeseeable and most improbable future military conflict'.




• China was right: China's distrust of western Big Tech is justified.

Big tech is proud to actively bias its digital platform. Sometimes I think China is justified in kicking all of them out, and other countries should also follow suit. pic.twitter.com/G01EMbCsWr

— Amit Thadhani (@amitsurg) March 1, 2022




China prepared for this. They kept most US-based software tech out. They have their own social media, own search engines, own payment systems. Cannot even login to Facebook from China. https://t.co/kry5m9FWU6

— Sankrant Sanu सानु संक्रान्त ਸੰਕ੍ਰਾਂਤ ਸਾਨੁ (@sankrant) March 2, 2022




• Wildlife has first right of way:

On roads around forest, wildlife has first right of way. Please drive carefully !! pic.twitter.com/LXUm8eJNrm

— Parveen Kaswan, IFS (@ParveenKaswan) February 27, 2022

War in Ukraine Could Have Global Consequences

Will America Pivot Back to Europe"

After Ukraine, Will Putin Invade Moldova?

Are India's Nationalist Media Rentable?

 I've been watching Arnab on Republic and Palkhi Sharma on WION, and I've noticed that they've suddenly started echoing non-stop the Western line on Ukraine. These are people who I thought were reliably pro-India, who are now busy propagandizing against Russia with full force, and questioning the Indian govt's decision to abstain at the UNSC instead of voting against Russia, a country which time and again has supported India at the UN, including with its veto. Palkhi in particular went on trip to Ukraine, just before the war broke out, and came back totally in Ukraine's camp, like she'd gone native. I wonder who paid for her trip? Where's Sudhir Chaudhry in all of this? It's worrying to think that those media personalities whom we see as pro-nationalist can potentially be converted in an instant, just by waving dollars in their faces. Maybe westerners know us better than we think.

Western Media's Racist Reporting on Ukrainian Refugees

The biggest double standards are at the governmental and societal level:

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2022/02/28/news/double-standard-europe-ukrainian-refugees

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/28/series-of-refugee-crises-hardens-eu-policy-then-ukraine-happens