Thursday, July 08, 2021

US Abandons Afghanistan: Is There An Iran Angle?

US forces are now suddenly abandoning Afghanistan, leaving it ripe for a Taliban takeover. The Taliban are immediately targeting northernmost border districts in a very coordinated offensive, indicating that Pak Army are very much in charge of the military strategy.


But the question is, why has the Biden Whitehouse suddenly decided to abandon Afghanistan, especially after so strongly criticizing the Trump Whitehouse over its desire for withdrawal? Is it possible that the Whitehouse wants a Taliban takeover - perhaps in the hopes of using the Taliban to fight against Iran? Back when Taliban originally appeared and began sweeping across Afghanistan, it seemed very obvious that they were receiving support from both Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, with America's tacit approval. The goal was not only to use a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan as a springboard to Central Asia, but also to open up a new military front against Iran on its eastern border. But AlQaeda quickly jumped into the fray to make it go awry, culminating in the 9-11 attacks.

In the 20 years since then, Iran has managed to recover economically and militarily, now reaching the brink of crossing over the threshold into nuclear weapons state status. Iranian-backed guerrilla forces in Yemen are also posing an increasing threat to Saudi Arabia. Furthermore, Iran is now preparing to sign a huge strategic economic deal with China that could have very far-reaching implications. So the US may be desperately searching for a way to derail this strategic trajectory which could heavily undermine US power in the future. A Taliban takeover of Afghanistan might be just the Faustian gimmick Washington needs in order to salvage its situation - since Washington hasn't ever bothered to learn enough from its past Faustian bargains to abandon such stuntsmanship. Pakistan is feeling very economically vulnerable and overly dependent upon China, after having lost its Saudi patronage.  However, the prospect of a newly opened military front against Iran's eastern border might be enough to woo Riyadh back towards collaboration with Islamabad. Unfortunately, the trans-nationalist AlQaeda and ISIS are still in existence, including in Afghanistan, and America's newly open southern border must not have escaped their awareness. Is a new disaster in the making?


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