Friday, February 05, 2021

nice thought, but probably no chance

these companies are all short-term transaction players and rent-seekers, who have created absolutely no lasting value. yes, they have created wealth for principals and for a lot of lower-level people. that is true. but there is nothing of value the IT services firms have built up in india, unlike, say, the semiconductor guys created in silicon valley. 

if these companies vanished today in a puff of smoke, nothing much would change: that's what i mean by no lasting value. 

their main export, manpower for doing routine low-level coding, will probably become obsolete when GPT-3 like AI starts building software automatically. i am reminded of the eerie parallel with "medical transcription", in which some entrepreneurs made money, but that business essentially disappeared with no trace, and no value, just a bunch of people who had been trained in something that was no longer useful.


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