If Russia tests, then how would China feel about this?
Would they use the opportunity to test, too? Would North Korea do so?
If such tests were to happen, then why shouldn't we also test?
Sure, it would put nuclear cooperation, fighter engine deal, etc all at risk of deep freeze. But hey - priorities, y'know? Only robust nuke capabilities will keep the Chinese on their side of the line, in spite of their salami-slicing. Fighter jets simply aren't enough to do that.
If USA can't respect India's need to deter China, then what can they realistically expect from us as a Quad partner?
If even just the Russians test, we have enough cover to do a Pokhran-3 (tactical+thermonuclear). North Korea would probably join in at that point (perhaps with a thermonuclear test). But I'm not sure Pakistan would be able to do much, since they're too economically vulnerable, and they'd probably need tech transfer to do a thermonuclear test.
Btw, after our Pokhran-2, there was the Kargil invasion - so we'd have to be on guard against a similar suckerpunch from Pak or China following a Pokhran-3. Reason Musharraf did Kargil was because Pak nuclear tests put them in a tough position internationally, where they felt they had to grab J&K sooner rather than later. So we'd have to watch for comparable stunts by neighbors following Pokhran-3.
Ukraine and Taiwan situations are imposing heavy constraints on Washington right now. We have a lot more leverage now than we did in 1998. Ironically, the same peculiar Atlanticist fixations of the current Whitehouse that's put them on the road to war against Russia in Ukraine (ie. Nuland et al) may help keep them from diverting their attentions elsewhere towards us in response to our N-test. So if we throw her some bone on Ukraine/Russia issue, then maybe it will pacify her enough to leave us alone.
Note: China would be p!$$ed off if that happens, and would be doubly sure to try some further Kargil/Galwan/whatever stunt in return. Xi would go full Musharraf on us.
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