Sunday, August 01, 2021

Is China Myopic On Afghanistan and CPEC?

 Brahma Chellaney writes about how China is opportunistically rushing in to fill the void following America's withdrawal from Afghanistan:

https://chellaney.net/2021/07/30/china-moves-swiftly-to-exploit-the-void-in-afghanistan/

With the U.S. in retreat, China is likely to increase its strategic footprint in Afghanistan by leveraging its strategic relationship with the Taliban’s main backer, Pakistan, and its own long-standing ties with that militia.

To co-opt the Taliban, China has already dangled the prospect of providing the militia the two things it needs to govern Afghanistan in whole or in part — acquiescence to its rule, if not formal recognition, and much-needed infrastructure and economic development assistance. And the Taliban, rising to the bait, is going out of its way to assuage China’s concerns. Clearly, a Taliban-dominated Afghanistan will not only be under Pakistan’s sway but also greatly aid China’s designs.


But it needs to be asked - given the importance of the success of the Belt & Road Initiative to China, and given how BRI & CPEC could be destabilized by Pakistani adventurism towards India and resulting flare-up in Indo-Pakistani tensions, then how does China intend to manage such challenges? Or does China  imagine it can just strangle India by building large dams to choke its water, and thus put India in a state of meek submission? I don't think that kind of exisential threat is going to do anything but provoke India to fight back even more ferociously, thus putting BRI in even greater jeopardy. Xi doesn't seem to know other countries as well as he imagines.



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