Indian Air Strike: Will Imran Khan Survive?

Following India's latest air strike against Pakistan's terror camp, it remains to be seen what the political fallout will be inside Pakistan. While Pak authorities may keep trying to fool the public with staunch denials of the strike, it's not likely to placate everyone, and so a scapegoat would be demanded. As it's unlikely that the Pak Army chief could be dismissed, then it would fall upon the civilian head of govt Imran Khan to suffer the blame. But the loss of Imran Khan would leave the govt without a civilian puppet as a figleaf. This could embolden the 2 traditional main parties, belonging to Nawaz Sharif and the Bhutto clan, to try to regain power. There's of course no love lost between both of them and the army, which has in the past used its power to have each of them ousted.

India would benefit from having either of the 2 parties regain power, since they've both fallen out of love with the military and the never-ending irredentist jihad game. China would likewise benefit from seeing those 2 traditional parties in power, as they're more purchasable by Chinese business interests. One of the reasons why the Army ousted Nawaz more recently was out of a concern that he was getting too cosy with China through direct business deals, at the expense of Pakistan's national interests. America too would benefit from the retrenchment of Pakistan's army, as it seeks an endgame in Afghanistan.

So with Imran Khan being an extension of the Army's praetorian rule, it's only the Army who have a stake in his political survival, while just about everybody else in the world would benefit from his ouster. It's therefore in our interest to continue a more muscular and assertive policy to leave Imran twisting in the wind.